Another Good Point

*Cover photo credit to Craig Mitchelldyer/Portland Timbers.*

The Portland Timbers have kept their second shutout on the road in a row. Unfortunately, they didn’t score any goals, and a trip to St. Louis resulted in their first 0-0 draw of the season. 

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Some 0-0 draws are utterly lifeless affairs where both teams struggle to create quality chances. However, this particular 0-0 draw moved at a lightning pace. Both teams went from box to box in the 3rd minute, after a St. Louis half-chance turned into a big Timbers chance that Jonathan Rodriguez fired right at Roman Burki. Portland played a relatively mistake-free first half, but couldn’t capitalize on their best chances.

The mistakes began early in the second half, but Portland’s last ditch defending (led by Dario Zuparic and James Pantemis) kept the game scoreless. The defining moment of the match came in the 75th minute. Eduard Lowen’s free kick hit the near post, and the rebound fell to Tim Parker. Parker’s shot into a near-empty net was cleared off the line by Claudio Bravo. The minutes continued to tick down, but neither team could find the breakthrough.

St. Louis did what St. Louis does: press high and try to create chances off of turnovers. This front-footed approach saw the hosts register 15 shots. Here are all of them.

The xG value of all of these shots is 1.04. Only 4 of them were on target. That’s excellent. Portland’s defense was rock-solid in open play. The best chance that the hosts had came off of a rebounded free kick. Although parts of Portland’s defense (their positioning, set-piece marking, and reaction time) still needs to be improved, at least they are able to tighten up when they are on the road. For those who have been watching this team all year, it doesn’t surprise me that their first two clean sheets have come away from Providence Park. Portland’s road record as of tonight is 2-3-5 with a goal differential of -3. .Since the turning point game against San Jose, the Timbers have been improving their defensive shape. They take more risks at home, so they’re a lot more spread out defensively at Providence Park. But since that San Jose win, the Timbers are 1-1-1 on the road with a goal differential of +1. Their discipline has improved, and the recovering defense is something that can significantly raise the ceiling of this team. Their fatal flaw continues to be mindless mistakes, but the Timbers weren’t lucky to get this clean sheet. They fully earned it.

On the other hand, a 0-0 draw means that the attack failed to find the back of the net. This has been one of my main concerns in 2024: the overreliance on DPs to find the back of the net. Yes, Designated Players should bear the brunt of the attack, but tonight was a perfect night for Portland’s secondary players to step up. They didn’t. Neville said that the offense was lacking “composure” in the first half, which was the optimal time to take the lead. Portland only managed 7 shots, put 2 of them on target, and kept tripping over themselves in and around St. Louis’ box. I’m going to delve deeper into the attacking struggles later in this article and in a preview of the summer transfer window, but their lack of output tonight turned a possible win into a scoreless draw. It’s only the third time that the Timbers have been shut out in 2024.

Today is Zac McGraw’s birthday, and he rediscovered his 2023 form. He’s been out of the team for a month and a half, but he knew his opportunity was coming back during the international break. He totaled 26 defensive actions tonight. His partnership with Dario Zuparic showed no signs of rust, and the Canadian is easily tonight’s Man of the Match. With Araujo and Kamal Miller gone on international duty for the foreseeable future, it’s time for McGraw to force himself back into the center back picture. “You always have to build on your last performance,” McGraw said in the post-game press conference. And this is a wonderful performance to build on.

Phil Neville singled out Dario Zuparic as “the most consistent defender over the past month” in his post-game press conference. This game marked his 7th start in a row, and he is completely undroppable for the rest of the season. It doesn’t matter who he’s partnered with. The Croatian is always going to leave it all on the pitch. His most crucial moment of the match came in the 48th minute, where he nullified a mistake from Juan Mosquera by shielding a free Joao Klauss from the goal. Now the Timbers will embark on an 11-day gap between matches. I bet Zuparic is pissed about it. No soccer for 11 days? How will he survive?

Claudio Bravo missed a total of 3 games due to injury and fatherhood, and made his first start in a month last weekend against Houston. Neville referred to that performance as “rusty.” The rust was still showing at the start of this game, but Bravo was able to grow into the game and rediscover his best form. For most people, the trademark Bravo move is a missed tackle after taking a hopeful stab at the ball (commonly referred to as a “bite”). But Bravo’s real signature move is his patented goal-line clearance. He has already registered two of those in 2024, and his quick reactions kept the score level in the 75th minute. Outside of that massive moment, the Argentine went from “biting” in the first half to locking down the left side in the second half. It also helps that he completed 80% of his long balls. As long as he stays healthy the left back spot is his. 

That same sentence also rings true for David Ayala. He returned to the same stadium where he tore his ACL last season and had to bear the brunt of defensive responsibility in the midfield. “He has earned his place in this team,” Neville said in the post-game press conference. Today, Ayala didn’t shine with his distribution, but he put in a wonderful shift defensively while Diego Chara was suspended. Neville said that the 5’7” Argentine is one of the best aerial defenders on the team and the numbers back that up. He won all three of his aerial duels. 4 clearances (3 of them with his head and one of them that somehow found Evander in stride), and 2 each of interceptions and recoveries. It’s blatantly clear that he is the future of the Timbers’ defensive midfield, and he is obviously learning from Chara. Tonight, he was the lone 6 at the base of the Timbers’ midfield three and he covered every area of the pitch. 

It’s going to be very hard to drop him from the lineup for the forseeable future.

Juan Mosquera had an interesting game. His abilities combined with his output on the pitch has made him a very polarizing player. In terms of pure talent and ability, he is an unbelievable right back. However, there is one bad habit of his that drives me up a wall.

When you take into account Mosquera’s move to wingback/winger in the 80th minute, this heatmap becomes slightly more clear. But the one gigantic red spot is the main area of focus. When the Timbers are building out from the back, Mosquera tends to move high up on the right wing. Against some teams, it’s perfectly acceptable. But against a high-pressing team like St. Louis, it can remove him from the play. So much pressure allowed the Raviolis to win the ball higher up the pitch, and Mosquera was completely caught out. I understand how important he is to the attack, but at some point you have to adjust for the opponent that you’re playing. Although he was able to recover most of the time, he still left acres of space for St. Louis to attack into. Until he can get more disciplined positionally (or Neville switches to the back three) the Timbers will always have a soft underbelly on the right side of their defense. But Mosquera did his job tonight, and did help the team get the clean sheet. 

Santiago Moreno continues to frustrate. On one hand, he created a brilliant chance (ignoring the offside flag) when he used his elastic touch to switch the field to a wide open Antony. Then, when a huge chance presented itself to him in first half stoppage time, he couldn’t get his first touch under control. Run it back.

Antony didn’t cover himself in glory tonight either. Even though the flag eventually went up, he had a 1v1 with Roman Burki and completely mucked a golden chance. This is now his 14th consecutive game without a goal involvement. There is no questioning how talented he is (he’s a very gifted soccer player) but Portland needed his end product tonight. Portland cannot be a playoff team while they continue to get such little production from the secondary attackers on their roster. Both Moreno and Antony needed to step up tonight and neither of them did. They found themselves in good positions, but were often let down by their own first touch or a misplayed pass. With the departure of Dairon Asprilla soon to be finalized (don’t worry, I have so many words about that soon to be published and almost none of them are pretty) the Portland Timbers are begging for another consistently goal-dangerous winger. 

They already have one consistently goal-dangerous winger, and his name is Jonathan Rodriguez. The Uruguayan had the least amount of touches among players who played the whole game, and some of that can be credited to the excellent defensive work of STL right back Tomas Totland. But on the other side of that coin, Totland was often pushing far up on the right and the Timbers just couldn’t find their star winger. One of the biggest drivers of the recent uptick in form has been Rodriguez’s emergence as one of the Timbers’ best players. Tonight, he won all 6 of his aerial duels and only registered two shots. Every player on the team should be looking to find him at all times. I thought that there would be plenty of long balls headed his way tonight but very few of them came. Rodriguez is still the top customer at the Timbers’ attacking restaurant, and he needs to be fed.

A quiet game from Evander, but he was also playing a bit deeper than usual. My word of advice: keep him downfield. Once Eryk Williamson entered in the 79th minute, Evander moved farther up the pitch and the Timbers were able to get him the ball in dangerous positions. Before I continue, I want to highlight Williamson’s contributions off the bench. He replaced Ayala as the main ball progressor from deep, and completed all 8 of his passes. A very good performance in limited minutes from the American midfielder tonight. The Timbers’ attack looked a lot better with Evander receiving passes from Eryk and as a result they were able to find some of their best half-chances late in the game. Moral of the story: start a ball progressor (Ayala/Eryk) alongside a ball winner (Paredes/Chara/Ayala) and keep Evander higher up the pitch. 

Nathan Fogaca wasn’t going to play the whole game, and he earned the start based on his training performances and the equalizing goal against Houston. But it’s more concerning that Felipe Mora wasn’t able to start this game. Rodriguez works best out wide, and the Timbers desperately need another striker. This is no knock on Fogaca, but a playoff team cannot have him as their backup option. One of the top priorities this summer should be adding another striker. Fogaca is one of my favorite players on this team because of his tireless effort and his willingness to play for the badge. It hurts me to say this, but strikers have to score goals. Fogaca had one chance and put his header wide of the target. He’s so close to being in sync with the other attackers but is often one step ahead of them. Maybe he can be a MLS-quality striker in the near future, but the Timbers can’t count on his development. He’s been on this team for two years already. 

James Pantemis recorded his second consecutive clean sheet. This team is in safe hands while Maxime Crepeau is on international duty. He has control over the backline and isn’t afraid to come off his line when necessary. If he keeps piling up clean sheets when Crepeau is gone, there will be a legitimate competition when Copa America is over. But pressure makes diamonds, and the two Canadians bring out the best in each other during training. Having two good keepers is better than none.

For the third consecutive game, the Portland Timbers end the night in 9th place. Teams below them have games in hand, and so do teams above them. There are 11 days between tonight and the next game, and there’s a full slate of games next Saturday. By the time the Timbers kick off in San Jose, they could be below the playoff line again. However, on the other side of the coin, they are one of three Western Conference teams that are on a 4-game unbeaten streak. The 11-day break will provide a much-needed rest for the only team in the West to play 18 games. Neville said that the players will have a week off, so hopefully they can clear their minds, get some rest, and be back next week ready to keep the momentum high. Another clean sheet can definitely add to the upward momentum of the past few weeks. Now the Timbers have to figure out what they will do this summer in order to improve on a perfectly average start to the season. 18 games played, 32 goals scored, 32 goals allowed, a goal differential of 0, and a 5-6-7 record. The climb continues.

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