Atlanta United-Portland Timbers Preview (3/18)

The Portland Timbers are hitting the road again this week to a familiar destination: Atlanta. Normally there aren’t a lot of cross-conference rivalries in MLS, but at one point in time, Portland-Atlanta could’ve been considered a must-watch fixture. 

Atlanta United entered MLS with a glittering squad and massive ambition. I would even argue that they are the most successful expansion side in MLS (no, I’m not snubbing Seattle, I’m just counting teams that entered the league after us). They set a new standard for expansion teams and were among the league’s top tier sides for their first few years of their existence. They also set numerous attendance records while playing in a football stadium, officially known as Mercedes-Benz Stadium, but I like to call it Megatron’s Butthole. Their literal crowning moment was a seemingly inevitable MLS Cup win in 2018, which was only their second season as an MLS club. Unfortunately, their victim that night was the Portland Timbers, who had a playoff run for the ages until they met a team that was just too good. That Atlanta team was filled with top-tier talent, most notably Miguel Almiron (now playing on Tyneside) and Josef Martinez. Both of those players have since left the club, and there is a new shining star who has taken their place. Thiago Almada became the first active MLS player to win the World Cup last December. He will leave MLS at some point in this next year, probably earning Atlanta another league-record transfer fee. The Timbers are 1-2-2 against Atlanta, and they are without a win in 2 matches at Mercedes-Benz (0-1-1). Since that MLS Cup win, despite still having a lot of star power, ATL have fallen back into a fringe contender role. In the offseason, they poached Garth Lagerway from Seattle to run their front office. He is already working to put memories of last year behind them, when injuries wrecked their squad to a point of unrecognizability. This year, they are starting to resemble their old selves again. 

Thanks for reading Cascadia FC's Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

Those players who were injured last year are fully back in 2023. Chief among them are goalkeeper Brad Guzan and center back Miles Robinson. Both are among the best in the league at their respective positions. Transfer-wise, they lost Martinez to Inter Miami in free agency and parted with young defender George Campbell, who was traded to Montreal. However, they have done a very good job in bringing in reinforcements. Chief among them is new DP Giorgos Giakoumakis. He is expected to replace Martinez at the striker position. In an underrated addition, they brought in winger Derrick Etienne Jr. in free agency. They also traded for Miguel Berry, who will back up Giakoumakis. The biggest piece of their offseason business had to be holding onto Almada. He is their most important player, and is already directly responsible for 3 of their 7 points, single-handedly tying and winning their season opener against San Jose. Last week they scored 3 first half goals to beat Charlotte. This week, they are looking to continue their positive momentum.

Osvaldo Alonso and Matheus Rossetto are the only names on Atlanta’s injury report. Rossetto is questionable and Alonso is out. They are going to line up in a 4-2-3-1, and their starting XI is pretty settled in the back: GK Guzan, LB Andrew Gutman, CBs Robinson and Jose Juan Purata, and RB Brooks Lennon. Franco Ibarra will definitely start at one of the midfield spots, while either Rossetto or Amar Sejdic will start alongside him. I think Sejdic gets the nod given Rossetto’s injury status. Their front four is where it gets interesting. Luiz Araujo will definitely start on the right wing with Almada as the CAM. Caleb Wiley got the start at left wing and was Man of the Match against Charlotte, so I don’t think Atlanta manager Gonzalo Pineda will bench him. Keep an eye out for Etienne off the bench, who is a quality sub. Giakoumakis hasn’t started yet for Atlanta, but I think he gets his first start this week. This is a very good team and a result will be hard to come by for Portland. 

The Timbers are heading in the exact opposite direction as their opponent. The injury list has only grown since last week’s loss to St. Louis, with Evander now ruled out with a hip injury. Giovanni Savarese said Evander picked up a groin injury which kept him from starting last weekend, so this isn’t the same knock from last week. Felipe Mora, Tega Ikoba, Dairon Asprilla, Sebastian Blanco, David Ayala, Yimmi Chara, and Cristhian Paredes are also out for the green-and-gold. Based on their absolute lack of offensive firepower, it is safe to say that the Timbers will once again be starting a back three. Those three will consist of Dario Zuparic, Zac McGraw, and Larrys Mabiala (however, I would love to see an Eric Miller start in place of Mabiala). Aljaz Ivacic should make his first start of the season in between the sticks, and if he doesn’t there are some very serious questions that should be asked. The midfield now has no depth behind starters Eryk Williamson and Diego Chara, so they will definitely be playing the full 90 in the A. There might be a bench appearance from new first-round SuperDraft pick Noel Caliskan, but I doubt he will see the field barring injury. Thank God there’s only one match per week at this point in the season. Claudio Bravo and Juan David Mosquera are Sharpied in at the fullback spots. The forward line is, to me, unpredictable. The only certainty is Santiago Moreno, who could either play the ten with two strikers or an inverted winger with only one striker. If there are two strikers, Jaroslaw Niezgoda and Nathan Fogaca will probably start (although I’d argue Diego Gutierrez should start over Niez, check out my thoughts on Gutierrez here). With only one striker, which in my opinion is the more probable option, Marvin Loria will be the other inverted winger with Fogaca starting as the lone #9 (it could be Niezgoda starting instead of Nathan, I have no idea what will happen until I see the XI). There is also a world where Moreno plays alongside Williamson as twin 8s, playing behind two strikers (Fogaca and Gutierrez would be my pick here). That last scenario is very unlikely, but there is no definitive way to pick the starting XI this weekend. 

The Timbers will win this game if they can weather Atlanta’s attacks and score a couple times on the counter. I don’t think this will happen, but I also don’t think Portland gets embarrassed. The best possible realistic result is a draw. In terms of things that Portland needs to work on, set piece defending remains at the top of the list. Just win headers and the second ball, please. I’ve got Set Piece Sloppiness Fatigue. Finishing quality chances is another thing to focus on, because I don’t believe those chances will be easy to come by on Saturday. I’ve written a lot of praise for Fogaca so far, but his biggest weakness is what should be a striker’s biggest strength: finishing. He needs to put on his goalscoring boots in order for the Timbers to have a chance in Atlanta. A ton of creative responsibility will be on the wing-backs and Williamson, and Williamson in particular looked dangerous against St. Louis from set pieces. McGraw is developing into quite an attacking aerial threat, and he is very likely to score on corners in particular. That might be crucial on Saturday given the state of the Timbers’ attack. Defensively, I am expecting Atlanta to focus their attack on the left side of the Timbers’ backline. Bravo didn’t look up to the task against St. Louis, but he led the league in tackles last year. He will be tested against Atlanta’s dangerous right winger Luiz Araujo. Ivacic starting is definitely a boost to the backline as well, given he is a much better shot-stopper than Dave Bingham. 

The Timbers do not have a good history in Mercedes-Benz Stadium, and this is their first visit since that MLS Cup loss in 2018. The result, however, might not be that much different on paper. This is a real test for Portland, and their leaders are going to need to step up and lead if they want to return home with points. 

Thanks for reading Cascadia FC's Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.