Austin FC-Portland Timbers Preview (9/17)

The push for the playoffs kicks into high gear on Sunday night, as the Portland Timbers travel to Austin in search of their first back-to-back wins of the season. Oddly enough, MLS and Apple decided to schedule Sunday games as soon as the NFL returned. It blows my mind how out of touch the decision-makers are when it comes with the people who consume their product. Nevertheless, this game will be the only MLS match on Sunday. Not only is this game free on Apple TV, but it will also be broadcast on FS1. What is advertised as a 5:30 PM kickoff will undoubtedly be closer to 5:55 PM. Sigh.

Austin FC shocked the entire league last season by finishing 2nd in the West and making the Western Conference Final in only their second year of existence. Many expected them to come back to Earth in year three, but their 2023 campaign has been a free-fall. 9-6-12 is an ugly record, and they sit in 10th. They do have a game in hand over the Timbers, who sit right below them, but 9th-place Dallas has a game in hand over Austin. Both the Timbers and Austin are tied on 33 points. So what caused the Verde and Black to regress? Many point to their record in front of goal. Last season, they outperformed their xG by 12, which is astronomical. So far in 2023, they are once again outperforming their xG, but only by 2. I don’t think outperformance is the culprit. But if you look at the pure xG numbers, you can find it. This Austin team is creatively bankrupt. No, I’m not talking about their supporters, who are ALLEGEDLY in debt to a company that creates their tifos. I’m also not talking about their ownership group, who tried their hardest to relocate the Columbus Crew to Austin before Don Garber awarded the most annoying city in Texas with a team. They rank in the middle of the pack in shots on target. But there’s a bigger reason why Austin FC have fallen flat in 2023. Defending is a STRUGGLE for this team. They’ve only kept 5 clean sheets (27th in MLS). Leo Vaisanen was expected to replace Ruben Gabrielsen but he hasn’t. Brad Stuver was massive for them last season, but he’s also regressed. Bottomline: they aren’t creating like they were last season and they aren’t defending like they were last season. But they’re still alive, and they know how important this game is for them. They haven’t won a game since July 15th. That’s a winless streak of six, and they only got a result in the most recent match (a 2-2 draw in New England). 

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Gyasi Zardes is questionable. That’s the only injury news I can share for the home team. 

They’ve had two weeks off to prepare for this game, but they do have a trip to Red Bull Arena coming up on Wednesday. This is definitely the more important game, so Josh Wolff will start a first choice XI.

Driussi has really come back to Earth following his MVP-level campaign a year ago. Maybe he shouldn’t have taken the number 10 jersey. Jon Gallagher is normally a fullback, but he’s been one of their best goal threats, so Wolff has been playing him farther up the pitch. Two former Timbers are listed here, with Julio Cascante pairing Matt Hedges at center back. Maxi Urruti has to start. Hedges came to Austin in a mid-season trade with Toronto, and he is an upgrade on Vaisanen. Pereira and Ring are a solid midfield pairing. Rigoni has massively underperformed as a DP. This is Austin’s best team, and they need to be starting for the Verde-and-Black. 

Before I really dive into the Portland Timbers, I must talk about anatomy. Scientists and doctors have spent the past century trying to figure out what actually goes on inside our bodies. The advancements made in medicine over the past hundred years are staggering. Not only have we figured out how to stop viruses, but we’ve identified what every organ in the body does. Well, all except one. In a move some might call “ridiculous,” I pulled up a diagram of the human body and asked Google one question over and over: “What does (insert organ) do?” Google promptly confirmed my own knowledge of the human body, but there was one organ which left doctors and scientists uncertain. And that organ is now added to the story of the Timbers’ wild roller-coaster season in 2023. From my research, the human appendix is a relic of our past life as herbivores. It helped us digest plants, but as we evolved, digestion became easier. Humans still have their appendixes (appendices?) but it is completely useless. As far as I’m concerned, the appendix only has one function: bursting at the worst possible time. When the appendix bursts, you have to undergo an appendectomy and then recover from the surgery. Miles Joseph woke up on Thursday morning to the news that Diego Chara was undergoing an appendectomy. Unreal. The Timbers had just begun to show some legitimately positive momentum, and an organ that DOCTORS AND SCIENTISTS cannot find a use for sidelines our best player for 1-3 weeks. However, there is something to smile about in the midst of this. Only acts of God, a horrific field in Houston, and an organ that leaves doctors and scientists confused about its actual purpose can stop Diego Chara.

Diego’s absence will definitely hurt. However, there was another late addition to the injury list this week. Aljaz Ivacic will miss this match with a lumbar injury. It is unclear how serious it is at this point in time, but it is another setback for a player who has had a 2023 to forget. There are no other availability issues to report, but Diego’s absence makes it a lot harder to predict a starting XI. I think there are two different setups Miles Joseph could choose, so I will present both.

Let’s start with a 4-3-3 look. The only player I trust to cover for Diego’s absence is Cristhian Paredes, and he would slot into the 6. Eric Miller could start over Juan Mosquera, and Bryan Acosta could join the midfield with Evander and Paredes, which would push Santiago Moreno out to the wing. I didn’t include Acosta because I think getting Dairon Asprilla onto the pitch in this formation is more important than starting Acosta. I’ve also advocated for Moreno to switch to the 8 already (go read this if you want more detail on that idea) and I think it would fit Joseph’s tactical identity if the Timbers started this match with this look. Paredes has played his best soccer this season while shielding the backline, and he’ll still have the opportunity to get forward if needed. If Noel Caliskan was still with the first team, I think he would start in the midfield while Moreno returns to the right wing. But he just played in LA with T2, so he won’t be with the team in Austin. Definitely something to keep in mind for the week ahead though.

This is a little unorthodox, but I’m basing it off what I saw late in the LAFC game. The Timbers did switch to the 4-2-3-1 in the 84th minute after Paredes was replaced by Antony. It wasn’t a defensive 4-2-3-1 either. In the post-game press conference, Joseph explained how the Timbers were trying to positively kill off the game. Rather than sitting back, the Timbers still wanted control and were still pushing for the 3rd goal. Joseph also mentioned in Thursday’s press conference how he wanted the Timbers to keep playing positively despite being on the road. I think this setup could accomplish that. The same Mosquera/Miller rules apply to this lineup as well. However, Sebastian Blanco comes back into the XI and will play as the 10. Evander could still create, but from deep, and could come forward to utilize his rocket of a right foot for any long-distance shooting opportunities. Evander is also very underrated defensively, so Austin wouldn’t be running through the midfield like butter. He just has to watch his fouls. I don’t think Joseph would start Acosta alongside Paredes and move Evander to the 10. His brief tenure has been focused on Evander playing in the midfield and not the front four. This is the second option, but it’s also a realistic one. 

One quote from this week stood out to me. Miles Joseph stated that he wanted the team to play positively on the road. That’s a massive departure from what regular Timbers watchers are used to seeing. But we’ve already seen it when the team visited Seattle. In that first half, which ended 2-0 in favor of the Sounders, the Timbers had 48% possession. Against a ball-dominant team like Seattle, that’s huge. Our problems came from execution and giving away the ball in horrific fashion. That last problem has been an issue for the entire season. So how can the Timbers keep the ball and pick apart Austin on the road?

Let’s start with a quick look at how the Timbers play out from the back. Under Gio, Diego Chara would drop in between the center backs. Portland would try to play out through the wings, with Diego’s movement creating a numerical imbalance in the midfield. Since Joseph took over, David Bingham has taken over Diego’s role, pushing up in between the center backs. When the Timbers do break through the first line of defense, the goal is to keep the ball wide and form triangles to move the ball up the pitch. Basic, but effective. Diego’s absence will definitely be an issue defensively, but it’s also going to affect the buildup. In order to counter that, Evander will need to be on top of his game when he receives the ball. Teams have already caught on to his quality with the ball at his feet, and there are already instances of teams planning for him to receive the ball and quickly press. He’s so good that teams are triggering their press when he receives the ball in the middle third. Diego is usually his best non-defender outlet, but often Evander will turn the ball over and a quick counter is started. That’s not entirely Evander’s fault. To fix it, I would scheme an easy outlet (probably a center back) who then plays a long diagonal to the right side of the field. If Lineup A is in use, that’s a perfect opportunity for Dairon Asprilla to win a header. It’s simple and gets the ball out of trouble quickly. But there is a downside. If the Timbers do want to maintain possession, that long diagonal is a risky pass and could result in a turnover. 

I’ve already spoken at length about the Timbers’ problems if they allow the first goal. The Seattle draw on September 2nd was the first game all season that the Timbers scored first on the road and still got a result. It was also the second time all season that they got a result after conceding the first goal on the road. They still only have one road win, and they need more in order to make the playoffs. The Timbers have only played at Q2 Stadium three times. The first two matches in 2021 were losses. I’m willing to excuse the first one because it was the first Austin FC home game in the venue. Last year, they won 2-1 at Q2, giving them a combined 1-0-2 record there. It’s not a massive sample size, and there is a history of the Timbers falling flat in Texas (I don’t need to remind you of the last time we played there). Despite the absence of Diego Chara, there is still a reason to be optimistic. Especially with the added motivation of taking down a playoff rival. Speaking of playoffs, how’s that table looking?

The good news: with a win tomorrow, the Timbers will be back in the playoff positions. However, the schedule did not work in our favor. Both Austin and Minnesota have a game in hand, while Dallas and the LA Galaxy have two games in hand. One interesting thing to note is the current form of their immediate competitors. The Timbers are the only team in those four to have an active three-match unbeaten streak. With a win (or draw), that extends to four. A draw would only jump the Timbers up one place, and Austin would still have a game in hand. There is only one truly “hot” team in the West, and the Houston Dynamo are too far away to concern the Timbers. This week starts with this Austin game before the Timbers return to Providence Park for two more matches in this seven day period. First is San Jose and the second is Colorado. All three matches are winnable. The Timbers need at least seven points to stay in the hunt. 

Despite the absence of their most crucial player, the Portland Timbers have a mission to accomplish in Texas tonight. While a draw would look good on paper given the circumstances, a win is desperately needed to keep the Timbers in the thick of the playoff hunt. A win would also give the Timbers consecutive wins for the first time this season. As they continue to find consistency on the pitch, consistency in the results must come. Otherwise, they will miss the playoffs for the second consecutive season. For a club with ambitions as high as the Timbers have, that is simply unacceptable to the fans and front office alike.

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