Colorado Rapids-Portland Timbers Preview (7/4)

Tomorrow is the 4th of July, and MLS has decided to celebrate by scheduling a Timbers away day to Colorado (6:30 PM, Apple TV). Before I delve into these two bad teams, I think there are a couple bigger topics I need to address.

In the American sporting calendar, MLS will be competing with Major League Baseball just based on the timing of the season. Every major sports league in the USA has a designated holiday. College football has New Year’s, the NFL has Thanksgiving, and the NBA has Christmas. Baseball has several. Mother’s Day, Father’s Day, Memorial Day, and of course the 4th of July. Naturally, MLS needs a holiday to put it firmly into mainstream American sports culture. Colorado-Portland is one of five matches that the league scheduled on Independence Day. The main attraction is a Rose Bowl-edition of El Trafico. I don’t have a problem with MLS putting a strong foot forward to try to claim 4th of July, but baseball will always prevail on the most symbolic American holiday. Fair game to MLS though. Scheduling a real must-watch in Colorado-Portland is definitely challenging MLB.

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Merriam-Webster defines “sicko” as “a person who is mentally or morally sick.” But the modern morphing of language has given a new meaning to the word. The first evidence of this comes from the college football community. For most casual college football fans, they will watch the major nationally televised games every Saturday in the fall. However, since college football is the most beautiful sport in the world, there is always craziness happening somewhere. Who cares about Michigan destroying Rutgers when Texas State and Florida International are in a shootout? The sicko is a person who will always watch the sport, regardless of whether or not it will be entertaining. They won’t just be watching Michigan-Rutgers and Texas State-FIU; they will have 10 games on at once. Besides Timbers and Rapids fans, only Sickos will be watching this match. 

Why is that? Just two years ago these two teams faced off in a Western Conference semifinal. What happened since to firmly implant this game into Sickos territory?  Two years ago, Colorado was the best team in the Western Conference. They dominated on set-pieces and grinded their way to the 1 seed and a CCL berth. Since then, they have devolved back into the Crapids (it’s completely unfair how easy that nickname is). So far in 2023, they are the worst team in the league by a wide margin. A record of 2-8-10 is definitely worthy of the Wooden Spoon. And with all Spoon contenders, they have serious weaknesses in both attack and defense. Attack-wise, this team doesn’t look woeful on the stat sheet. A combined xG of 24 is 20th in the league, which isn’t a great ranking but not a truly awful one. But games aren’t won by expected goals. You have to put those balls in the net. When you have the same amount of goals as you do points in the table (14) you have no chance of actually winning games. And the Rapids’ current 9 match winless streak certainly speaks to that. Out of those 9 games, only two are draws, and they’re both scoreless draws. Defensive solidity has been a calling card of past Colorado teams, but the 2023 version has been awful as well. They are allowing a total of 29.1 xG conceded, which is 6th-worst in the league. I could delve into more stats about how bad the Rapids are, but I think I’ve made my point. One last quick fact to note is the Rapids’ home record: 0-5-4. They are winless at home and are craving something to celebrate on the 4th of July. 

If you thought Portland’s injury record in 2023 was bad, you should take a look at Colorado’s lengthy report. Jack Price, their talisman, tore his Achilles in March. Diego Rubio has been dealing with an upper body injury and the team has been seriously suffering in his absence. Jonathan Lewis has also been injured this year. Although his absence isn’t injury related, the team is definitely missing Max Alves, who was indefinitely suspended after some gambling allegations. With so many key contributors sidelined, it makes sense that this Crapids team is even more crappy than the Crapids we’re used to. However, things might be turning around. Lewis and Rubio are both questionable, but youngster Ralph Priso will serve a yellow card suspension. 

I’m being awfully optimistic in this XI, but the Rapids are desperate. I think Rubio returns from his injury in a must-win game. Bryan Acosta has also returned from the Gold Cup, which is another positive. Wolverhampton (EWW) loanee Connor Ronan has been a solid addition to the midfield this season. Steven Beitashour has been their starting left back since Alex Gersbach went down with an injury. Luckily for Rapids fans, the club just traded for Atlanta left back Andrew Gutman. He will certainly not play tomorrow, but it’s a good trade. Looks like Stan Kroenke remembered he owns a MLS franchise. Annoying small person Michael Barrios is another guy to watch, as he always does something against the Timbers. Lalas Abubakar and DP Andreas Maxso are the best two center backs on the roster. The Rapids have another match this upcoming Saturday, but it’s at home and against Dallas. Rotation will probably come from substitutes because this game is a lot more winnable (ugh). Kevin Cabral is the most interesting name that could see game time. That’s all I have to say about the Colorado Rapids, and even I think it’s too many words.

Groans and sighs probably left most of your lips during your viewing of last Saturday’s debacle in Minnesota. The Timbers continue to show their fans that they do not look like a playoff team. Their 5-7-9 record checks out from both the eye test and the box scores. And now they are heading into a pretty hostile environment (the altitude, not paddle-peddlers behind the goal). The attack continues to struggle, and the backline was gashed repeatedly last weekend after a few encouraging performances. The short rest combined with the altitude could treat us lucky viewers to a debacle that we can’t possibly fathom.

Being pessimistic is not my strong suit, but it’s hard for me not to partake in a little storminess given the state of the injury report. We assumed that Evander would be back for this match after serving his suspension, but he has picked up a calf injury and will not play. That’s very concerning. Larrys Mabiala will also be out after picking up an unspecified lower body injury. Dairon Asprilla is still out, but Sebastian Blanco has been cleared to play. It is unknown how many minutes Blanco can play, but at least one major creator will be available in Evander’s absence.

I will continue to be stubborn and project Juan Mosquera as a winger until Giovanni Savarese finally uses him as one given the current lack of production from that area of the pitch. Eric Miller should provide solidity behind him. Paredes should be healthy enough to start, and the Timbers will need him. No slight to Caliskan, but he just played a full 90 and could still see time off the bench. Nathan Fogaca needs to start alongside Franck Boli up top. Fogaca was on the pitch for mere seconds before assisting Boli on Saturday. Tyler Clegg posted an Instagram story of Denver, so I’m assuming that he’s with the team due to Mabiala’s injury. Finally he will get a chance to start a league match. Marvin Loria and Blanco should be available off the bench. Despite the weakness of the squad, this is a must-win game. The Timbers’ all-time record against Colorado is 12-6-10, but are 3-4-8 at Dick’s Sporting Goods Park. 

With Evander out again, it’s time to play the hits. Bunker-and-counter seems like the best way to get a result. Exhaustion is a factor with both teams, but that’s why I’m labeling Juan Mosquera as the Timbers’ X-Factor for this match. If he is playing farther up the pitch, there will be more chances created. He can also press if the team loses the ball. Tyler Clegg has a lot to prove in this match. He had a great game against Orange County but struggled against RSL. With a stronger supporting cast, he should be solid. Colorado’s real danger comes on set pieces. Price is a gifted free kick taker but there’s still enough height in the team to still keep them dangerous on corners. There isn’t a ton else I can analyze tactically but the Timbers need to show fight. I wouldn’t be disappointed if they conceded if they became vengeful. Motivation is key, and the Timbers don’t play for 11 days after this match ends. Every bit of energy they have should be expended on the pitch. 

This will not be a pretty game. Any hopes of another snow game should be thrown out the window. This has to be a win for Portland. Colorado is certainly going to have motivation, and the Timbers need to show that they have the desire to win games no matter how bad their form has been. To the Sickos who will be tuning in for some reason, good luck. This has “ugliest game of the year” potential.

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