Columbus Crew-Portland Timbers Preview (4/20)

A difficult three-game road-trip begins on Saturday as the Portland Timbers travel to a special place. Nine years ago, the Timbers won their lone MLS Cup at MAPFRE Stadium; the old home of the Columbus Crew before they moved into Lower.com Field. Since losing that final in 2015, the Crew have added to their trophy cabinet. 

The Crew Report

They added their second MLS Cup in 2020 under the tutelage of former Timbers manager Caleb Porter, who was in charge of the Timbers’ 2015 triumph as well. However, in 2022, Columbus had an unfortunate habit of dropping points late in games. This included a game on September 18th against Portland where Santiago Moreno smashed home a late equalizer with a helpful assist from Bill Tuiloma’s face. Porter was shown the door in the 2023 offseason and was replaced by Montreal’s Wilfried Nancy. Nancy had earned some national acclaim after leading Montreal to 2nd in the Eastern Conference and playing a very attractive brand of soccer. Nancy and Columbus was a match made in heaven. The Crew dominated the playoffs and lifted their 3rd MLS Cup last season. That earned them a berth in the 2024 CONCACAF Champions’ Cup. And they want to add a CONCACAF title to their trophy cabinet this year. They advanced past Houston in the Round of 16, but made history in the Quarterfinals. They took a 1-1 draw to El Volcan, the home of Tigres, and forced extra time after regulation ended 1-1. Their resulting victory on penalties made the 2024 Crew the only MLS side in the competition’s history to advance in a Mexican 2nd leg after not leading the first leg. I know that sentence is hard to comprehend, but it’s a pretty big deal. While their CONCACAF exploits have been excellent, how is their 2024 MLS form?

Cascadia FC's Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

They are 3-4-1 (4E/7S) with a goal differential of +3. Like the Timbers, they haven’t won since mid-March. There are two major reasons why. First of all, Nancy has been rotating the team due to CCC. The second reason is Cucho Hernandez. Let’s go back to March 23 when the Crew lost 2-0 in Charlotte. Nancy wasn’t in charge for that game, so assistant coach Kwame Ampadu was the acting head coach. Hernandez got subbed off and exchanged some words with Ampadu. The Colombian was not in the team for their 2-2 draw in Nashville the following weekend. Nor was he in the squad for the 1-1 draw against Tigres. He made his return on April 6th against DC but was sent off after an illegal challenge on a DC player. Hernandez played the full 120+ against Tigres in the second leg of the CCC Quarterfinal but missed last weekend’s game at RSL while he served his red card suspension. He will be back this weekend to face Portland. Last season the Timbers beat Columbus 3-2 on Diego Valeri Day. Hernandez and Nancy were both absent for that game after both player and manager were red-carded the previous week. That game featured Sebastian Blanco’s final goal for the Timbers. Historically, the Timbers have a 7-3-3 record all time against Columbus, with a 3-1-3 record in Ohio. 

Goalkeeper Evan Bush is out. Forward Christian Ramirez is questionable for tomorrow’s match. Ramirez hasn’t played since March 23rd. 

Columbus has to travel to Monterrey this week for the first leg of the CCC Semifinal. The big question is how much they will rotate. Hernandez missed last week’s game due to suspension, so he should start. The two forwards who start underneath him are a bigger question mark. I don’t think Ramirez is healthy enough to start, so it will be a combination of either Rossi, Russell-Rowe, Marino Hinestroza, or Alexandru Matan. Old friend Darlington Nagbe should start alongside Aidan Morris in the midfield. Yaw Yeboah will probably get the start with Will Sands available as a backup. The first major rotation is Max Arfsten starting over Mo Farsi at right wing-back. There are also serious rotation possibilities at center back. Cheberko has been their best center back so he can’t get dropped. Steven Moreira and Malte Amundsen are my choices to start at the wide center back positions, but Rudy Camacho or Sean Zawadski could see their names on the teamsheet tomorrow. Schulte should remain in goal. Plenty of options for the Crew, and Nancy has the best kind of problem ahead of tomorrow’s match.

The Timbers Report

There’s one name on everyone’s lips: Evander. After his brilliant game against LAFC, the national media are beginning to take notice. A spirited debate was had on This is MLS about whether or not the Brazilian is one of the best 10s in the league. Bradley Wright-Phillips definitely believes he is due to his outstanding recent form. Sacha Kljestan hasn’t bought in yet. While he does believe Evander is a great player, he believes that Riqui Puig is still the better player and pointed to the Western Conference table as evidence. While I don’t believe that using the table is a good-faith argument, it’s clear that some pundits are going to need to see more from the Timbers as a team and not just Evander. This debate stemmed from a comment Phil Neville made after last weekend’s draw. The head coach proclaimed that he believes that Evander is the best 10 in the Western Conference. Based on current form, I wholeheartedly agree. And it doesn’t really matter what pundits say if your teammates believe in you. James Pantemis said it best on Tuesday: “I remember when I first saw him in preseason I was in awe. I just told him, ‘You’re disgusting.’” 

That draw last weekend did not end the winless streak, but the Timbers are now 2-3-3 (10W/20S) with a goal differential of zero. Can they finally get a win tomorrow? Before I get into my predicted XI, something needs to be addressed. 

This chart comes from The Athletic, and it looks like the Timbers have regressed from last season. They are firmly in the “bad attack, bad defense” category. One of those (bad defense) is certainly true. But the other important numbers (like goals scored) completely disagree with the advanced metrics. The Timbers have scored 16 goals in 8 games in 2024, which puts them at an even 2.0 goals per game. Meanwhile, some teams firmly in the “good attack” category are severely underperforming the advanced metrics. Seattle is a perfect example of this. Despite an outstanding Goals Added number, 4 of their 9 goals have come from the penalty spot. It is still very early in the season, but Portland’s offensive overperformance has been keeping them afloat. But how much are they really overperforming?

Portland’s npG-npxG is +4.7 which ranks 3rd in MLS behind Miami and SKC. They are not taking a lot of shots and as a result don’t have a lot of shots on target per match. But they are 3rd in MLS in goals per shot. Portland can’t rely on moments of magic for an entire season. They must continue to improve in the final third. More consistent chance creation needs to be the next evolution of this team. While the defense remains a work in progress, the attack also needs to keep improving despite some excellent physical numbers.

Marvin Loria is still out. Dario Zuparic did not travel with the team and will miss his second consecutive game due to “personal reasons.” No further clarity has been provided in regards to Zuparic. Antony is questionable with a knee injury. Maxime Crepeau is suspended after being sent off last weekend.

With Crepeau suspended, James Pantemis will make his third start of the season. Last week he entered a game as a substitute for the first time, but he’s going to get the nod from the start tomorrow. He’s very excited to face his former coach. Trey Muse will be on the bench as the backup. No changes to the back four. Zac McGraw is cleared to play but Miguel Araujo and Kamal Miller appear to be the first-choice center back pairing. I will get to the midfield prediction in my tactical preview. You can’t drop Felipe Mora, and Jonathan Rodriguez looks better as a winger than a striker. Antony is questionable, but I expect him to be on the bench. Santiago Moreno returns to the starting lineup in his place. Although a couple starters are missing, this is still a very strong lineup. 

Tactical Preview

The Midfield Situation

Assistant coach Dave van de Bergh met with the media for the first time on Tuesday. I asked him how the coaching staff assesses which two central midfielders will start each week. According to van de Bergh, the technical staff looks at form and tactics to decide who gets the nod. “All four of them bring something different.” That’s a correct assessment. But there are two players on this team who need to be in the starting lineup each week. One of David Ayala or Diego Chara must start. This week, Diego should get the nod. I think his partner will be Eryk Williamson. From a form perspective, it doesn’t make a ton of sense. Eryk’s last action came in second half stoppage time against SKC. Before then, he came off the bench in Houston and in Vancouver. And I firmly believe he would have seen the field against LAFC if Crepeau wasn’t sent off. So what makes Williamson the correct choice against Columbus?

The answer is ball-carrying combined with defensive tenacity. Most Timbers fans don’t think of Williamson as a strong defensive presence, but he is actually pretty strong in the tackle when he picks his spot right. Against players like Nagbe and Aidan Morris, Williamson’s ability to pick the right spot will be needed. Columbus likes to play a higher line with their 3 center backs, so Williamson’s ball-carrying should be able to open up passing windows to the flanks and Evander to get in behind. Paredes and Ayala will be available off the bench, but I think the time is right for another Williamson start.

The Wings

Jonathan Rodriguez tried his hardest to get involved against LAFC, but when fouling machine Sergi Palencia is marking you there isn’t a lot you can do. Columbus’ wingbacks tend to play higher and they can be exploited when the Crew lose possession. Feeding Rodriguez and Santiago Moreno will be very important tomorrow. The numbers say that Moreno is one of the best dribblers in MLS, but sometimes his first touch can let him down. Consistency has always been the key to unlocking Santi, and he needs to have a good game tomorrow. 

Every Blade of Grass

Columbus is so dangerous because they can hurt opposing teams from every place on the pitch. Darlington Nagbe and Aidan Morris both rank in the top 5 league-wide in pass accuracy. Nagbe is renowned for his ability under pressure, so it’s another tough test for Diego Chara tomorrow. Defending the wide areas will be crucial as well. Bravo and Mosquera put in excellent defensive shifts against LAFC, and now they will have to do it again in another hostile environment. If the Timbers want to leave Ohio with a result, they will have to be mentally locked in to defend every blade of grass on the pitch tomorrow. 

Final Thoughts

Tomorrow is April 20th, which is a national holiday for marijuana smokers. Since the Timbers are, you know, trees, I thought it would be interesting to see what their historical record was on a day that celebrates plants. In my research, I found a pretty cool coincidence. The Timbers have only played once before (MLS-era) on 4/20, and it was in Columbus in 2019. The Timbers won 3-1 that day in Parley kits. Although there is one data point, I’m willing to make a bold proclamation: trees don’t lose on 4/20. 

Tomorrow’s game kicks off at 4:30 PM and it is NOT FREE on Apple TV. While the Timbers will face an old friend on the field, another familiar face will be in the commentary box. Tony Husband and Ross Smith are on the call tomorrow.

Is this game a must-win? Considering the strength of their opponent, I don’t think so. I’m just hoping for a good performance and a result of some kind. The LAFC game was the most complete performance I have seen from the Timbers in 2024, and they were able to accomplish it while being a man down for half of the game. Phil Neville has been in charge for two months, and the team is still growing with him. This team is desperate to make a major statement, and none would be louder than a win at the home of the reigning champs. 

Cascadia FC's Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.