Dallas-Portland Timbers Preview (4/1)

April has arrived, and that means the Timbers now face a very tough month of games. The first is their first Texas trip of the season, heading to Dallas (Frisco) to face a strong FC Dallas team. 

FC Dallas is a signature club in MLS. While they haven’t been trophy winners since 2016, their academy is the best in the USA. Notable names such as Weston McKennie, Chris Richards, Ricardo Pepi, Reggie Cannon, and Bryan Reynolds have since moved on to Europe from Dallas. My nickname for Dallas is Feeder Club Dallas, as they are very open to cashing in on their young talent. Their current academy jewel is Jesus Ferreira, who won Young Player of the Year in MLS last year and represented the USMNT at the World Cup in Qatar.  Manager Nico Estevez has built a quality side at Toyota Stadium. So far this season they are 2-1-2, good enough for fifth in the Western Conference. They have also scored in their last four matches. Portland has a funny history with Dallas, and their current historical record against them is 10-10-10. Dallas has outscored Portland 51-40 in those contests, however. They have also met four times in the postseason, with Portland only getting eliminated in one of those contests. This is indicative of a pattern of results against Dallas, where Dallas often wins early season but Portland wins when it counts. Last season Dallas won 4-1 at home in March, and drew the reverse fixture in Portland. That home match was a bitter pill to swallow for Timbers fans, as the Timbers took a lead on a late rebounded penalty kick from Marvin Loria deep into second half stoppage time. Back at the other end of the pitch, Diego Chara ended up equalizing for the visitors with the most unfortunate of own goals. The Timbers are looking to buck the trend of early season losses in Texas this week.

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There are only two names on the Dallas player availability report. The first name is Ema Twumasi, who picked up a red card last week in LA and will miss this match serving his suspension. The other name is a familiar one to Timbers fans. Left-back Marco Farfan, a former Timbers Academy graduate, picked up a knock last week but is expected to play this week. Dallas tend to line up in a 4-3-3. Marten Paes is a very good keeper, and he will start on Saturday. Former club captain Matt Hedges left in free agency, but newly arrived Sebastien Ibeagha has taken his spot alongside Nkosi Tafari in central defense. Farfan and new signing Geovane should start at the fullback spots. Dallas also has a strong midfield, with Paxton Pomykal, Edwin Cerrillo, and Facundo Quignon expected to start. Their front three is another strength, with Ferreira starting at the 9. Young winger Alan Velasco already has two goals this year, and he will start on the left. Former USMNT winger Paul Arriola will get the start on the left. Jader Obrian is a very good option off the bench, and did get the start against LAFC with Pomykal benched. I expect Dallas to put their best available XI on Saturday night. 

Dallas has the luxury of a clear injury report. The story is reversed in Portland. Marvin Loria and Dave Bingham have joined the fallen Timbers, both sidelined with hamstring injuries. Felipe Mora, Sebastian Blanco, Cristhian Paredes, and Yimmi Chara are all confirmed out for Saturday. Two players carry a questionable tag: David Ayala and Evander. Giovanni Savarese confirmed in a press conference today that Ayala will begin his rehab with T2 rather than the first team. He was training this week, so hopefully he can get some minutes with T2 this week. Evander is still a massive question mark for Saturday. Savarese said it is still unknown whether or not Evander will travel with the team this week. Because of that, I am going to assume that he will not be available for Saturday. I tend to err on the side of caution, especially with a Designated Player. One name absent from the injury report is Dairon Asprilla. He is expected to make his season debut in Frisco, but he will be on a minutes restriction. I am predicting a return to the 4-2-3-1 for Portland. Last week’s mini-scare about Aljaz Ivacic seems to be resolved, according to Savarese. Ivacic will be back between the sticks on Saturday. Juan Mosquera has returned from international duty, and he is one of the first names on the teamsheet, starting at right back. Zac McGraw and Dario Zuparic will start at center back, with Claudio Bravo earning the start at left back. The midfield pivot of Chara and Eryk Williamson will be unchanged. It is also worth noting there are still no bench options at the central midfield positions. Santiago Moreno and Diego Gutierrez are definite starters in the midfield line, and I think Asprilla gets the start and plays for a maximum of 60 minutes. Keep an eye on Justin Rasmussen. He will be on the bench to start, but might come in as a winger rather than a left back. The Timbers do not have any healthy true wingers on the bench. Things get a little interesting up top. Jaroslaw Niezgoda and Tega Ikoba are both healthy, but Niezgoda has been ineffective and Ikoba is still recovering from injury. This leaves the door open for Nathan Fogaca to make his fourth start in a row. 

There is one other name available to play striker, and that is Franck Boli. He joined the team last week following his transfer and all signs are pointing to him making his debut this week. It will certainly come off the bench, but I think he will quickly stake his claim to the starting striker role. Savarese has been very happy with him since he arrived from Ferencvaros, and believes he can be a difference maker. “(Franck) has the experience of playing in different places, you get the feeling he will adapt very quickly,” Savarese exclaimed in Tuesday’s press conference. “I think his mobility is very good.” Savarese went on to praise Boli’s instincts as an attacker. Now, I am eternally optimistic about this team, so you might want to take what I am about to say with a grain of salt. But I am once again begging you to let me cook. Boli has Raul Ruidiaz-levels of potential. Ruidiaz’s calling card is always getting into dangerous positions and (most of the time) being clinical in those areas. Of course, this is based on watching his highlights and hearing what Savarese has said in regards to him. But he does profile as an immediate difference maker up top, and that’s definitely something that this team needs. Our new number 7 isn’t ready to start, but he is ready to play. 

The keys to beating Dallas come down to the basics. First, of course, is winning set-piece battles. Dallas has been dangerous on set pieces this year. The Timbers did look good on set-pieces against the Galaxy last week, but they will once again need to be stellar this week. Dallas also likes to have the ball a lot, and be direct. This opens the door to counter-attacking situations, and the Timbers will need to exploit those opportunities if they want three points. Los Toros have a lot of match-winners on their squad. Limiting their effectiveness will also be key. Ferreira in particular will need some extra attention, as he scored a hat trick in last March’s match in Dallas last year. Allowing Dallas to control the game will be expected. Just don’t allow them to constantly threaten the 18-yard box. 

The Timbers do not have a good early-season history in Texas. Three points will be hard to come by against a healthy Dallas squad. Taking points from this game should be viewed as a success, especially given the Timbers’ recent run of form. This is the start of a very tough April, as Portland will visit Vancouver next week and then host Seattle the following week. Evander is still healing, and Boli just got here. Give me a 1-1 draw and I’ll be satisfied.

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