FC Cincinnati-Portland Timbers Preview (4/22)

Ohio is the next destination on the Timbers’ (2-2-4, 8 points) nationwide tour list this year, as they prepare to take on a Cincinnati team (5-2-1, 17 points) that has taken a massive step into title contention. Both teams are coming off results seemingly against their recent form.

FC Cincinnati came into the league as a punching bag. After a stellar few seasons in USL, they prepared to move in the American top-flight with high expectations. One player who was expected to reach those expectations was former Timber Fanendo Adi, who became the team’s first Designated Player. They had a memorable home opener in MLS (a 3-0 drubbing of Portland in a college football stadium) and proceeded to win the Wooden Spoon in 2019, the colloquial name for a fictionalized trophy presented in theory to the worst team in Major League Soccer. They went on to add another Spoon to their collection in 2020, and pulled out a miracle Spoon three-peat in 2021. After a shakeup to the front office and coaching staff, FCC made a thrilling push into the postseason last year, but lost to Eastern Conference champs Philadelphia in the conference semis. Optimism was high in the Queen City heading into 2023. The Garys (yes, that’s their team’s nickname and it’s glorious) rattled off a season-opening seven-game unbeaten streak before St. Louis CITY put an end to it last weekend. And boy, did it end in dramatic fashion. A 5-1 whooping away from home left Cincy tied for first in the Eastern Conference, and now they are looking to get back on track in their home stadium. 

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Two crucial members of the Garys’ squad were not present in STL. Luciano Acosta has been their best player since his arrival in 2021. Last year he was the engine behind their emergence into the league’s upper tier of teams. Brenner is another key piece in this squad, but the club just sold him to Udinese for a reported $10 million. FCC paid $13 million for him in 2021, and he blossomed last year, tallying 18g/6a in 29 appearances. Given that his transfer is about to occur, there are genuine questions surrounding how many times he will appear in Cincy colors. Players can’t leave until the international transfer window reopens in July, so their star Brazilian seems like a lame duck in a team that is pushing for trophies. Acosta missed the STL match with a shoulder injury. There is also a third star in the Cincinnati attack, and it is 2022 breakout star Brandon Vazquez. Vazquez matched Brenner’s 18 league goals, but tallied 8 assists to go along with them. He came from Atlanta and blossomed in his 3rd year in Cincy, getting All-Star accolades. So far this season, he has only tallied 1g/1a in 8 matches. He will also be joining the USMNT this week for a meaningless cash-grab friendly against Mexico in Glendale, Arizona. He is not the only Cincinnati player getting a mid-week callup. CB Matt Miazga, a crucial backline piece, and GK Roman Celentano will also be in Arizona for the USMNT’s latest fundraiser. All national team players will return to their clubs for their next matches, so Vazquez, Miazga, and Celentano will be available for selection on Saturday. 

Vazquez started for the USMNT on Wednesday night, and played 64 minutes. Miazga came on as a sub and played 23 minutes. Celentano got a nice rest on the sidelines. Acosta trained in full on Thursday and will be available for selection, per Pat Brennan of the Cincinnati Enquirer. He will definitely appear on the pitch, but it is unknown how much playing time he will get. Brenner will not be with the team, as he is heading to Italy for his Udinese physical. Head coach Pat Noonan favors a 5-2-1-2, so that’s the formation I will use as a guide to project Cincinnati’s starting XI. Celentano is their unquestioned #1, and given his relaxing trip to Arizona midweek he will start as planned. Alvaro Barreal has been a revelation under Noonan, becoming a key creative outlet as a left wingback. Their three center backs are a sturdy bunch. Miazga is the leader, and he will be joined by veteran Nick Hagglund. Yerson Mosquera is an interesting case, as the Timbers traded his discovery rights to Cincinnati for $50K GAM prior to the start of the current season. Cincinnati promptly signed him on loan from Wolverhampton (yuck) and he has been a fixture in their team so far in 2023. Regular right wingback Santiago Arias is out for Saturday’s match, and either Alvas Powell or Raymon Gaddis will replace him. Their 2-man midfield has been fantastic in 2023. Junior Moreno has two goals so far, and Obinna Nwobodo has proven worthy of his DP pricetag. Backup CM Yuya Kubo might be available to return on Saturday, but it is unlikely, so look for Marco Angulo to make a substitute appearance. Acosta’s fitness is still up in the air, and the Garys do not have a like-for-like replacement for him. However, that spot still needs to be filled. Cincy lined up with three strikers in St. Louis, so the 5-2-1-2 might look like a narrow 3-4-3. Vazquez will definitely start, same with Sergio Santos given Brenner’s impending transfer. Dominique Badji is an interesting option at Acosta’s spot, but he’s not a true 10. Their other forward option is 19-year-old Guatemalan Arquimedes Ordonez. It is possible that he might make an appearance, but he was subbed off at halftime last weekend. This is a very good team that has a quality first XI, but the depth behind it isn’t particularly scary. 

The Timbers, counter to the Garys, were in a slump before destroying Seattle 4-1 at home on April 15th. Giovanni Savarese is hoping to keep the momentum going, and his optimism is shared by CB Zac McGraw. “Our game plan didn’t change, regardless of what personnel they were gonna have out there. We have to capitalize on changes in momentum and punish teams for it.” Gone are the days of a depleted squad fighting for points. The Timbers are ready to impose their will on teams, and it doesn’t matter which players are opposite them. You can see the confidence brimming from a hungry and motivated squad, and that confidence will be tested this next week. After a magical night at home, the Timbers are ready for their busiest week of the year. It will start in Cincinnati on Saturday, then a US Open Cup match at home against Orange County, and ends with a Saturday night game in St. Louis. Two difficult road trips with a home cup match in between. And Portland is ready to meet that challenge. 

Both Yimmi Chara and Sebastian Blanco will not be traveling to Ohio. Claudio Bravo will also be staying home, as he picked up a calf injury this week and isn’t fit to play. The timetable on his injury is unclear at this point, but he will be a key piece absent from a fired-up Timbers team. So will Dario Zuparic, who is a late add to the injury report after entering health-and-safety protocol. Head coach Giovanni Savarese also entered health-and-safety protocol, and did not travel with the team to Ohio. Assistant coach Carlos Llamosa, who has taken over head coaching duties in the couple instances Savarese has not been available, will reprise that role this weekend. In Llamosa’s two previous games at the helm, the Timbers have won both. He also confirmed in a Friday press conference that the game plan has not changed. Expect very little drop-off tactically. Rather than the 4-2-3-1, I believe we will see a 4-3-3 shape from Portland. Aljaz Ivacic is undroppable. Same with Zac McGraw, whose new center back partner in TQL Stadium will probably be Larrys Mabiala. Juan David Mosquera also carries an undroppable tag, and we should be grateful that he is back playing right back, his natural position. Bravo’s absence means Justin Rasmussen will make his fourth start of the season at left back.  Diego Chara will once again anchor the midfield. Given Ayala’s encouraging performance against Seattle, it makes sense that he will have earned another start. Cristhian Paredes has been a super-sub so far in 2023, and coming off the bench is no indictment of his ability. Evander’s positioning decides the formation. If he’s a 10, it’s a 4-2-3-1. If he’s an 8, it’s a 4-3-3. He will definitely still be getting forward as an 8 though. I did like what I saw from him against Seattle, and Llamosa confirmed that he has a green light to play 90 minutes in Cincy. Franck Boli should make his second start in a row at striker, and he also has no limitation on his minutes. Santiago Moreno will also start on the right wing. Dairon Asprilla’s bicycle should surprise no one. Least of whom Zac McGraw, who had this to say following his spectacular equalizer last Saturday. “I’ve been watching him do that for so long. He does it at least once a week in training. Nothing he does really surprises you.” (here's further evidence of his training ground brilliance) His return to the side has seen a key emotional leader continue his career Renaissance in the green-and-gold. Alvas Powell or Raymon Gaddis will have their hands full with him on Saturday night. Nathan Fogaca and Jaroslaw Niezgoda both scored against Seattle, and both will be available off the bench. Look for them to feature in the midweek US Open Cup match. Despite the absences of Bravo, Zuparic, and their head coach, the Timbers are still fielding a strong squad in a tough road test. 

The key to the Timbers’ success in Ohio is how they will deal with the dangerous Cincinnati attack. Zac McGraw had this to say about stopping their powerful front three: “It’s not necessarily the backline that has to do something when you’re playing a talented front line. It depends on the forward, how he presses, how the midfield covers for the forward, and how the center backs and fullbacks cover through balls and balls over the top. It is more of a team effort when they have quality up top like that.” This is a really good assessment from McGraw. Therefore, I believe that the Timbers should take the initiative on the road and actively press Cincy in Portland’s attacking third. Five at the back is a defensively solid position to take, and the Timbers are still struggling to create quality chances. Cincinnati’s width comes from their fullbacks, not their wingers. With added depth on the bench for Portland, there should be a constant energy from their front four, with Ayala and Chara behind to clean up if Cincy is able to play out of it. Portland’s four goal outburst against Seattle came from this energetic pressing and forced turnovers that turned into rapid counterattacks. Creating chances in possession is still very important, but host teams usually try to control possession. Force those mistakes and pounce. Set pieces continue to be a worry, especially with Cincinnati’s multiple aerial threats. During the Seattle match, Portland’s defense was routinely making quality clearances on Sounder set pieces and showed improvement in repositioning for a possible second ball. Keep that same focus for this week. While in possession, I expect Boli and Asprilla to be making dangerous runs inside the 18. Moreno, Evander, and Ayala all have a keen eye for a pass, so there will be some pressure on them to make those key passes and set up shots against a formidable Cincinnati backline. Mosquera can both create and finish, and his presence on the right in attacking situations is a massive boost to this attack. Sometimes his end product isn’t there, but putting himself in those key positions means his goal involvements will keep rising. 

This week is Parley kit week, when every MLS team wears one of two kits made from ocean plastic. The Timbers will be wearing the light version, shown below.

I am a respecter of the Parley kit idea, but it just adds confusion. Make these kits a training top instead of something every team in the league has to wear. Every single kit matchup will look exactly the same, and it will be harder to figure out which team is wearing which. At the beginning of this year, I did a Tiermaker of Timbers kits (you can find that graphic here.) You may notice that I put every single Parley kit in the D tier. That doesn’t mean that I objectively hate the jerseys, I just think that every time we wear them we look uglier. I get that MLS teams are nothing but money-making machines, and that these jerseys are nothing but a money grab with a cool message to not make you feel stupid buying one. But given how many different specialized training tops the league will put out throughout the season, it makes sense to just convert Parley kits into a prematch top. People will still buy it, and teams can wear their actual jerseys for every game this year. Also, for a fun little stat, the Timbers are 2-0-2 when wearing Parley kits, and they are 1-0-2 wearing them away from home. That one away win came in 2019 in Columbus, so the Timbers are also undefeated wearing Parley kits in Ohio. Take whatever lesson you want from that. 

This is only Portland’s third ever match against Cincinnati, and I already mentioned their MLS home opener. The second came in 2020 during MLS is Back Round of 16. The Timbers had the lead, Steve Clark gave away an ugly penalty, but redeemed himself in the resulting penalty shootout. Technically, that’s a 0-1-1 record against Cincy in 90 minutes. This is not an incredibly important game for Portland if you’re only thinking about the league table. But the Timbers have momentum, and their congested upcoming schedule is going to be a real barometer of where this team is truly at. Their season may have turned around against Seattle, but they will have to keep the results coming in Ohio.

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