FC Dallas-Portland Timbers Preview (7/4)

For the first time in a couple weeks, the Portland Timbers are going back on the road. Their destination is Frisco, Texas to face FC Dallas. With temperatures set to reach triple digits, it will be the hottest game of the season (so far) for the visitors. 

But before I can talk about the not-hot opponent the Timbers are facing tomorrow, there is another pressing issue at hand. This is Year 2 of the Apple deal, and for the second year in a row the Timbers are being forced to play on the 4th of July. Last season, the worst match of the season was the 0-0 draw in Colorado on July 4th, which ended up being postponed at halftime due to thunderstorms. The two teams resumed the match on July 12th, and the scoreline remained the same. It was easily the most forgettable match of 2023, and it was a true Sickos classic. Independence Day falls on a Thursday this year, and MLS scheduled 3 games. Last season, there were 5 games. Apple didn’t make any changes to their arcane kickoff time rules, so all 3 matches (Dallas-Portland, Colorado-SKC, and El Trafico) will kick off at 7:30 PM local time. If MLS really wants to claim the 4th of July as a soccer holiday (which is very unpatriotic because the 4th of July is for baseball and always will be) they really should stagger more games throughout the day. I’m pretty fine with the new El Trafico at the Rose Bowl tradition, and I understand that the Colorado Rapids have a fireworks display scheduled for the 4th, but MLS is definitely half-assing their 4th of July schedule. It’s a perfect day to actually stagger the games, and they didn’t.

Cascadia FC's Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

The Dallas Report

I had to get that off my chest before I could talk about the Timbers’ opponents. In 2023, FC Dallas were a very good team. The Timbers took 4 points off them in both meetings. Franck Boli rescued a draw with a stunning equalizer on his debut, and then he scored the only goal in the reverse fixture. They were very good results considering how strong Los Toreros were in 2023. Their defense was excellent even though their attack was carried by Jesus Ferreira. They finished 7th in the West and lost to the Seattle Sounders in 3 games during the first round of the playoffs. During that playoff series, young star Alan Velasco tore his ACL. Dallas is feeling the effects of that injury during the 2024 season. Despite splashing a club-record $10.8 million on striker Petar Musa in the offseason, FC Dallas has a 5-5-10 record (11W/22S). They have scored 27 goals in 20 matches, and have allowed 30 goals in 20 matches. But there is a massive difference between their home and away form. At home, Dallas is 5-2-3 with a goal differential of +4. But Los Toreros have failed to pick up a single win away from Toyota Stadium (0-3-7, -9 GD). In a just world, that win would have come on June 22nd in Seattle. Dallas had a 2-0 lead in the 70th minute, but allowed 3 goals in the final 25 minutes. On June 8th, they tied Minnesota 1-1 on the road. This result (objectively a good one) cost head coach Nico Estevez his job. Even though a month has passed since his sacking, I still think this was a rather harsh dismissal. Estevez’s squad has been dealing with loads of injuries (Velasco and Paxton Pomykal chief among them) and the former USMNT assistant was trying to implement a new tactical identity. However, that identity was flaccid, and it cost him his job. Peter Luccin has been the interim coach for the past four games, and has a record of 2-0-2. Three of those games have been at home, and the only road game was the 3-2 collapse at the Fishbowl. However, Dallas has scored 9 goals under Luccin’s stewardship, and Musa has 4 of them. But after suffering two straight losses, it’s fair to say that the new coach bump has waned. 

Per FBRef, Maarten Paes is still one of the best goalkeepers in MLS. His PSxG +/- is +3.9, which is 7th-best in the league. Many people have ragged on the Timbers for their non-penalty xG overperformance, but Dallas’ number of +6.9 is 3rd-highest in MLS. For reference, the Timbers are overperforming their non-penalty expected goals by 5.4. Their injuries and the poor system installed by Estevez has cratered the attack. Dallas is averaging 20.35 shot-creating actions per 90, which is 5th-worst in the league. Their defense has been rather feckless as well. Dallas’ underlying numbers aren’t impressive. They tend to be slow and intricate in the attack and often get dominated in the midfield. 

The injury problems continue for the hosts. Patrickson Delgado, Jesus Ferreira, Liam Fraser, Geovane Jesus, Paxton Pomykal, and Alan Velasco are all out. Some of these players (aside from Pomykal) could be available for the reverse fixture on October 6th.

Most of Dallas’ absences affect the attack and the midfield. So their back four (Paes, Ibeagha, Junqua, and Tafari) are pretty close to first-choice. Arriola’s trade from DC United is still the most expensive inter-league move in MLS history, and he is now a wingback. Farfan (the only true Timbers homegrown in the league) has played both left back and left center back this season. He’s a better wingback than a center back. Illaramendi was a rather underrated signing last summer. He’s dealt with injuries, but he is the team’s best midfielder. He should be partnered with Fraser given Delgado’s absence. The front three is the most affected by the absences. Lletget could move up a line, and Kamungo showed a ton of promise in 2023. However, Kamungo only has 2 assists in 18 matches this season. He hasn’t scored yet after scoring 8 goals in all competitions last season. Musa is the top scorer and has been able to show his quality in a weak team. Once Velasco and Ferreira return, this Dallas attack could be lethal. But neither of them are back yet. Some parts of this team are very strong, but the attack is down to bare bones.  

The Timbers Report

Dairon Asprilla got a wonderful farewell last Saturday, and now the Timbers must move on without him. Their 3-2 victory against Minnesota was a signature win, and Portland dominated the match despite the tight scoreline. Phil Neville’s philosophy was on full display during that game. “80% mentality, 20% tactics.” The head coach brought on two wingers to play fullback as the Timbers chased the game, and the hosts didn’t allow a single shot from the visiting Loons during the second half. After a 9-match winless streak where the team’s low confidence was evident on the pitch, the team embarked on a 7-match unbeaten run. After training on Tuesday, the grass practice pitch turned into a local park. A group of players relaxed on the field, some took penalty kicks against the keepers, and others were off on the side talking to coaches and other team personnel. Although there was already a strong team spirit before their long-overdue bye week, Neville claims that the break somehow brought them closer together. “They came back refreshed,” the coach said on Tuesday. “When you’ve got a brother on the pitch with you, and I literally did, then you’re willing to push extra for your brothers.” The 2024 Timbers are becoming more than a team; they’re becoming a brotherhood.

Diego Chara is the captain of this brotherhood, but Evander is also showing off his strong leadership qualities. However, leadership qualities alone don’t get you selected to the All-Star team. For the first time since 2019, the Portland Timbers have a MLS All-Star. Evander continued to be humble during an interview on Tuesday. “It (All-Star nod) means a lot to me. It means that the work we’ve been doing on the pitch has been really good. Not just from me, but from the whole team.” It’s no surprise that Evander is looking the most forward to sharing the pitch with Lionel Messi. During this interview, a fellow Brazilian joined the assembled group of reporters. That man was Nathan Fogaca, who stood behind the scrum with a massive smile on his face. Fogaca is an underrated teammate on this team. His presence has helped players like Antony and Evander adapt to Portland, and Fogaca’s massive smile shone through the crowd. He was so proud for his friend and teammate to earn this honor. And Evander knows that it wouldn’t be possible without his teammates. Fogaca is definitely one of those, and his lone goal of the season came from an Evander cross. 9 goals and 9 assists in 17 matches. He’s definitely worthy. If he keeps this pace up, and the Timbers keep climbing the table, he should be in the MVP conversation at the end of the season. He learned of his All-Star selection during the Green is Gold match, with club legends Diego Valeri and Jack Jewsbury in the locker room. Both Valeri and Jewsbury have been All-Stars, and Phil Neville continues to be outspoken in his praise of his star player. “He joins an elite group of players who have gone on to become legends of this football club….We are immensely proud and it’s very well-deserved.”

Maxime Crepeau and Kamal Miller are still on international duty. In a funny coincidence, Canada is playing Venezuela at AT&T Stadium in Arlington on Friday. It might not be too much of stretch for them to travel to Frisco and watch their team on Thursday night. Miguel Araujo’s Copa America journey is over after Peru’s elimination and he will be available for selection tomorrow. That is very good news for the Timbers. Zac McGraw is out after taking a serious knock against Minnesota. In the words of his head coach, McGraw’s face is “a complete mess.” Eric Miller is a surprise addition to the injury report. He will miss tomorrow’s game with a leg injury. Marvin Loria will also be out for another game.

“I think at this stage of the season there is no rotation, you just have to go for it.” That’s what Phil Neville said on Tuesday. As a result, I predict only one change in tomorrow’s lineup. That change is Araujo’s return. The Peruvian was sent off in Peru’s second game of Copa America and hasn’t played a single minute since. He’s fully healthy and well-rested. I think Neville’s substitutions will be especially important due to the high temperatures and the short week. Bravo, Mosquera, Ayala, and Mora didn’t play the full 90 against Minnesota. I don’t think Chara will go the full 90 tomorrow, and he could be benched to start tomorrow’s game for Cristhian Paredes or Eryk Williamson given the high temperatures. The captain has been rested for certain games in 2024, and all of them have been on the road. The substitutions for tomorrow are just as important as whoever starts.

Tactical Preview

The High Press

Phil Neville will never describe this as a tactical switch, but the Portland Timbers are suddenly a high-pressing team. I kind of agree with him. Earlier in the season, against teams like Columbus and LAFC, the Timbers would often form a lower block and force opposition teams to break them down. Then they began to concede goals due to individual mistakes in that low block. Neville wants this team to be on the front foot, and that includes the defense. Players like Mora and Moreno have been instrumental to the press. And there is every reason to believe that the press will continue in Dallas. Although this game will turn into a sweat-fest, the Timbers need to keep applying pressure to Dallas’ backline and weak midfield in order to force high turnovers and mount attacks. The second half against Minnesota was a masterclass in what a high press can do. Portland was ruthless on second balls and barely allowed the Loons to move the ball past the center line. Now the Timbers have to answer a question: can they press on the road? Against San Jose, the Timbers were routinely outdone by long balls over the top. Dallas hasn’t been very threatening from long balls (they prefer to buildup rather slowly than be quick and direct) so the Timbers are set up perfectly to continue their high-pressing ways. Even though Dallas is a weaker team than the Timbers, they will have to pass a tricky road test in a venue where they can only win in October. The press will be key to that. 

Final Thoughts

Announcer Analytics

Mark Followill and Warren Barton will be on the English broadcast. The Spanish announcers are Raul Guzman and Carlos Ruiz. This game is NOT FREE on Apple TV and kickoff is scheduled for 5:30 PM Pacific time.

Referee Report

Rosendo Mendoza will be the center referee for tomorrow’s match. He has never refereed a Dallas-Portland match before. 

Historical Record

Portland has a 11-11-10 record against Dallas since both teams joined MLS.  However, they are 2-6-9 in Frisco. Both of those wins came in October. Portland is unbeaten in their last 3 games against Los Toreros.

Target Practice

It has been a while since I talked about the points target that I set for this run of games. Prior to the San Jose game, I said that the Timbers needed to get 14 points before Leagues Cup begins. They are already halfway there. 9 points down, 5 to go. There are 4 games left to get those 5 points. In addition to the 7-game unbeaten streak, they have now started a 3-game winning streak. Phil Neville has referenced a “points target” that the team set prior to Leagues Cup beginning. I wonder if we have the same number in mind.

With history taken into account, tomorrow’s game isn’t a must-win. The Timbers are traditionally terrible in Texas. But with recent form taken into account, Portland has to beat this Dallas team tomorrow. The hosts are dealing with injuries and the Timbers have the most momentum that they’ve had all year. Time to break the Texas duck. 

Cascadia FC's Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.