Houston Dynamo-Portland Timbers Preview (8/20)

After the conclusion of the Leagues Cup campaign, the Portland Timbers headed into a break. That break ends on Sunday when they travel to Houston to face the Dynamo (5:30 PM, Apple TV). Before I can talk about the opposition, there is one player that deserves a bit of airtime. 

Steve Clark is a completely unique player in Timbers history. Unless you’ve stood right next to him, it can be hard to believe that he is 6’2”. He plays like an undersized goalkeeper, relying on his reflexes and athleticism to make spectacular saves. But that reckless abandon he channels has its downsides. Let’s journey through time back to 2015, when Steve Clark suited up for MLS Cup in Columbus. It only took him 27 seconds to etch his name into Timbers lore. Diego Valeri saw an opportunity and stole a shock lead for Portland, which they wouldn’t surrender. He became an ironic hero for the team. After going to Denmark, he returned to MLS to play for DC United. But in the summer of 2018, he received a hero’s welcome in Portland. He didn’t start immediately, but was once again present for a run to MLS Cup. In 2019, he took the starting job and held it (barring injury) until his final game in December 2021. In that time, he won MLS is Back and cemented his status as a fan favorite. Notorious earworm “Baby Shark” got repurposed to celebrate our cult hero keeper. On December 4th, 2021, as the dying seconds of stoppage time ticked down in the Western Conference Final, he turned to the Timbers Army and raised his arms to pump the crowd up. The delirious fans obliged his request, and he sent the final goalkick out to the field while the referee blew his whistle. And suddenly, time stood still. It was a windy, freezing, and rainy day in Portland on December 11th, 2021. Steve Clark had a dragon to slay. There was no doubt his mistakes in 2015 were weighing on his mind during the entire week ahead of another MLS Cup. No goalkeeper would ever call those weather conditions favorable. But he persisted. Had the ball been less slippery, Taty Castellanos wouldn’t have been able to get that header past him. But it went underneath him, and NYCFC had a huge lead. That lead would get famously erased, and soon penalties were the only thing separating the Timbers and Clark from the trophy. I can’t put the blame for that shootout completely on him. But one player probably did. Nevertheless, the Timbers lost, and Clark left for Houston in the offseason. His return to Portland came on June 29th, 2022. The Timbers won a penalty in the 34th minute, and Santiago Moreno stepped up to take it. Moreno had scored in the MLS Cup shootout, and was becoming a key contributor for the Timbers. It was his penalty to take, and he put it past a diving Clark to give the Timbers the lead. Two minutes later, Moreno unleashed his remaining frustration with a beautiful finish to double the Timbers’ lead. Being prone to mistakes is a trait that Clark is synonymous with. Aside from his iconic 2015 gaffe, he gave away a penalty to Jurgen Locadia in MLS is Back that would have sunk the team. Locadia did bury it, but he didn’t bury a sitter later on, and Clark redeemed himself in the shootout. He’s still a player that is so good at his job, but has an innate ability to choke in big games. We all still love him even if we won’t admit it. And now we must face him again.

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Speaking of Steve Clark mistakes, let’s talk about the last match the Dynamo played. They faced Charlotte FC in the Leagues Cup Round of 16 and grabbed an early lead thanks to Corey Baird’s goal in the 10th minute. What followed was Charlotte trying to break down a sturdy Houston defense and becoming unable to get the equalizer. Don’t worry, Steve Clark is about to enter the picture. More specifically, he’s about to come wildly off his line, not get the ball, and allow Patrick Agyemang to take a touch around him and slot the much-needed equalizer home in the 80th minute. OK, that’s not what the script called for. Reader, just wait. He has more heroics to pull off. A simple backpass caught Clark off guard, and the most agonizing of own goals rolled into his net a literal MINUTE later. Two mistakes, two goals, in the span of two minutes. A masterclass from Clark. Houston did not get their equalizer, and they were knocked out of Leagues Cup. It was their only Leagues Cup game not to go to penalties, and they ironically won all three of those penalty shootouts. Sigh.

The Dynamo currently occupy the final playoff spot in the West and have 29 points in 23 games with a 8-5-10 record. They’ve been trying their hardest to drop out of the playoff race if we look at their recent form. They haven’t won a game since June 21st against San Jose. In those 9 games since, they are 0-5-4. That’s a 5 match MLS winless streak, coupled with a technical 4 match winless streak in Leagues Cup, where they only advanced on penalties. But they do have a talisman. Hector Herrera deserves MVP votes based on his performances for the Dynamo this season. 3 goals and 6 assists aren’t mind-blowing stats, but he is their engine. The deeper I dig into this Dynamo team, the more his importance stands out. Houston have scored 5 penalty goals this season, and new signing Amine Bassi has slotted home all of them. He’s tied for second in the league with those 5 penalty kick goals, and has added 3 from open play to lead the team in scoring. DP striker Sebastian Ferreira couldn’t get into the team and went on loan this summer to Vasco da Gama. Adalberto Carasquilla had a great Gold Cup with Panama and is a key player in their midfield.  Houston’s backline has been their main strength this season and their 8 clean sheets are tied for third in the league. Erik Sviatchenko is their main addition, and he came from FC Midtjylland in Denmark. That makes him a former teammate of Evander, and he played there during Evander’s entire tenure. Micael has been his preferred partner in central defense, with Franco Escobar on the right. Escobar can also play on the left, with Griffin Dorsey playing on the right in his place. Daniel Steres or Chase Gasper are other good options at left back. Houston is better than previous years under new coach Ben Olsen, but that winless streak has put a damper on his first season. If it continues, they could be back outside of the playoffs. 

There are no new injuries for the Dynamo. So here’s a predicted starting XI.

This is the best XI for the Dynamo. Carrasquilla has been playing on the right wing, while Nelson Quinones is the first choice on the left. Bassi isn’t a true ten, but more of a second striker. Either Ibrahim Aliyu or Corey Baird can start up top. Wingers Thor Ulfarsson and Ivan Franco are names to watch off the bench. Same with midfielder Luis Caicedo. The Dynamo are still a good team even if their recent form has said otherwise.

The Timbers didn’t advance as far as the Dynamo did in Leagues Cup, but one could argue that they had a more impressive performance. They won the game they needed to win (San Jose), played the reigning Mexican champions down a man for an entire half and only lost by 1 (Tigres), and came so close to getting a goal against the best Mexican team in the competition but lost (Monterrey). Three good teams, and three solid results. Now here’s the big question: what does this mean for the rest of the season? Houston is hanging on to the last playoff spot (9th in the table) but are only 3 points ahead of the 12th-place Timbers (6-8-9, 26 points). That record isn’t good, but there’s one thing keeping it afloat: home form. Out of those 26 points, only 8 have come away from home. To further add to the waste that has been the traveling Timbers, only 1 of their 12 road matches have resulted in a win (1-5-6 road record in 2023). That win was in St. Louis, all the way back in April. The Timbers have shown that they can show up on the road (besides the St. Louis game, the Cincy loss and the Seattle draw were also good performances). Now, with the onus on the team to climb out of the hole they’re in, one of those match-winning road performances must come on Sunday. The West continues to cannibalize itself, and if the Timbers don’t start eating, they will continue to be food.

Every match has to start with a lineup, and we will not see a best XI from Portland on Sunday. Diego Chara is serving a yellow card suspension, and Marvin Loria is in Costa Rica after his wife gave birth. Congratulations is in order for both, specifically for Loria. For those counting, that’s the third player on the team who had a child this year. Those two are healthy scratches, but the injury bug still wants to feast on the Timbers this season. Santiago Moreno has been dealing with an ankle injury for most of the season, and now he’s going to miss a game because of it. Zac McGraw is confirmed sick with a non-COVID illness. He is technically questionable and it is unknown whether he traveled with the team to Houston. I’m going to err on the side of caution and expect him to be out. With Diego suspended, there are two players who could get the armband. I expect either Dario Zuparic or Cristhian Paredes to captain the team in Houston, and I’d be OK with either one of them assuming the role. With these notes to keep in mind, here’s how I expect the Timbers to line up on Sunday night.

I wish I could provide more clarity on the goalkeeping situation, but having 2 good keepers is a good thing. I think Ivacic gets the nod over Bingham on Sunday night. Miguel Araujo has played in 2 matches for a total of 10 minutes so far, but it’s his turn to make his first start. Bryan Acosta hasn’t been in a matchday squad yet, and a start here is exactly why he was signed. Two first starts for the new boys. The other new boy is Antony, who hasn’t fully joined the team yet. He’s going to be with the team in Houston, but he won’t be playing. A suddenly deep wing room is now a lot shallower with Moreno and Loria’s absences. Maybe Nathan Fogaca will be available off the bench. I know Sebastian Blanco definitely will be available, and he’s the biggest impact sub the Timbers have at their disposal right now. Felipe Mora continues to work his way back to 90-minute-fitness, and he’ll also be available off the bench. Even though some key players are absent, this is still a good lineup.

In Thursday’s pre-match press conference, Giovanni Savarese said the extended break has given them extra time to study Houston as an opponent. So I’m not going to delve into what their tactical approach will be. Even if their tactical plan is flawless, it won’t matter unless it’s paired with the perfect mentality. Three matches in 2023 illustrate the Timbers’ road woes: 5-1 at Atlanta, 4-1 at SKC, and 4-1 at Minnesota. In those three matches, Portland went belly-up. It wasn’t immediately after the opening whistle, but there definitely was a change in the effort that I’ve seen from the team in home matches. In order to salvage this season, and claim a much-needed three points in Texas, the Timbers have to show up in the same way they did in Leagues Cup. Especially with the Dynamo’s glittering home record of 7-2-2. Historically, the Timbers do hold the advantage over Houston with a combined 10-8-6 record against them in all competitions. But, crucially, they have only ever won one game in Houston. That game was in 2021, and it was a 2-0 win against a Dynamo team that finished last in the West. Their complete record in Houston is 1-7-4. While a draw wouldn’t be a terrible result in a vacuum, a win is needed desperately to keep their heads above water in the playoff race. Houston’s Leagues Cup performance could get them a boost, but there will be no penalties after 90 minutes in this one. The Timbers have to show up to play. That includes scoring the first goal. Out of the 12 road matches the Timbers have played in this season, they’ve only scored the first goal twice. One of those games was the St. Louis win, and the other one was the complete surrender they did in Kansas City. In those other 10 away games, four were scoreless draws. The only time they have rescued points from losing positions on the road in 2023 was in Dallas, when Franck Boli scored a debut equalizer. That leaves five games where the Timbers conceded the first goal and lost. In Cincinnati, they scored an equalizer before losing the lead late. Getting the first goal needs to be the number one priority for Portland on Sunday night. Without it, there isn’t any evidence that they will even leave with any points.

5:30 PM Pacific is the start time, with kickoff likely to be around 5:35 or 5:37. It has not been a fun week to be in Portland with the furnace-like weather, but Giovanni Savarese saw it as an advantage. Training in the heat and humidity is a perfect way to prepare the team for the conditions they will be facing in Texas. It’s normally a place where Timbers dreams go to die, but they are prepared. Next step is execution, and if that step is successful, the Timbers can re-introduce themselves into the Western Conference playoff picture.

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