Houston Dynamo-Portland Timbers Preview (3/15)

Last season, the Timbers saw an old foe re-emerge. That team became the antagonist for their season, giving them two franchise-altering losses. Now, in early March, the Timbers must take a trip to Texas and attempt to right those wrongs.

The Dynamo Report

Let’s turn the clock back to the 20th of August. The Timbers and the Houston Dynamo were heading in opposite directions. Portland tried to grit their way through a difficult Leagues Cup draw, but optimism was high despite the Round of 32 exit. The Dynamo hadn’t won a game in 90 minutes since June and had won 3 straight Leagues Cup games on penalties before a horrorshow struck against Charlotte in the Round of 16. Houston conceded twice in two minutes and crashed out of Leagues Cup with their tail between their legs. However, in the two weeks since the Charlotte loss and their game against Portland, head coach Ben Olsen pulled off a coaching masterclass. The Dynamo team that took the pitch against the Timbers was a far cry of the team that was winless in their last 5 MLS matches. The Timbers had an extra week to prepare for this game, but they were helpless to stop a reinvigorated Dynamo team that thumped them 5-0 in 116-degree heat. Houston used that game as a springboard. When their season ended after a Western Conference Final loss to LAFC, they had gone 11-4-2 across all competitions to close out the year. That glittering stretch included a US Open Cup triumph. There was no doubt about it: the 2023 Houston Dynamo were playing incredible soccer and would be a scary proposition in 2024. 

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Then the offseason came. And nothing happened. Well, some stuff did happen, but it wasn’t anything major. You would think that the Dynamo would try to build off a trophy-winning season, but their offseason saw more departures than additions. Teenage Hadebe, Corey Baird, Ivan Franco, Chase Gasper, Thor Ulfarsson, and Matias Vera all left the club this past winter. That’s a lot of contributors, and Hadebe’s departure opened a DP slot. Griffin Dorsey returned to the club after testing free agency, and veteran midfielder Jan Gregus also came to the club as a free agent. Their only true transaction before the season started was a trade for former NYCFC striker Gabe Segal. The Dynamo aren’t completely asleep, however, During this week, they completed a trade for former Toronto midfielder Latif Blessing. A light offseason in the transfer market is one thing, but the real hurt began when the injuries began piling up.

Hector Herrera was the first casualty. He is dealing with a knee injury and hasn’t played a single minute of soccer in 2024. Without their midfield talisman, the Dynamo are unable to reach their ceiling. Winger Nelson Quinones is out for the entire season with a knee injury as well. Striker Sebastian Ferreira has been dealing with a hamstring problem. Despite these injuries that are clearly lowering their ceiling, the Dynamo have been playing relatively well in 2024. But they’re not winning games. Houston has only played 2 MLS games so far, but they lead the league in average possession per 90 minutes. Without Herrera and Quinones, however, their attack has slowed to a crawl. There’s an awful lot of passing without any incisive attacks. They’re still very stout defensively, but a lot of that is due to controlling possession. 

Herrera and Quinones are out for tomorrow’s game. Ferreira and center back Erik Sviatchenko are questionable. The Dynamo (0-1-1, 1 point) went to Columbus for CCC last Tuesday, and got eliminated after drawing 1-1. They started a lineup of all starters, but there has been plenty of time for those starters to rest and regroup. 

If Sviatchenko isn’t good to go, Ethan Bartlow will start alongside Micael at center back. Other than that, this is a first choice lineup. With Herrera out, Amine Bassi has been playing deeper in a midfield three. Last season, Bassi was the 10 in a 4-2-3-1. Coco Carasquilla is a good player, and he can start either on the right or in the midfield. Ibrahim Aliyu is the starting left winger after Quinones’ injury. Gabe Segal will start up top even if Ferreira is cleared to play. Sebastian Kowalczyk is the other striker option for Houston. Finally, our old friend Steve Clark is between the sticks. Although the Dynamo are missing some firepower, they are still very dangerous.

The Timbers Report

Following the last-gasp victory over NYCFC last weekend, Tom Bogert of The Athletic reported that the deal for Club America forward Jonathan “Cabecita” Rodriguez was very close to being finalized. That’s very good news. However, for the players, their next opponent has been circled on the calendar since the schedule was released. 

When I spoke to Phil Neville on Thursday, one specific phrase about the Dynamo stood out to me. “They left a scar on us.” The two worst losses of last year were delivered by the Houston Dynamo. The 5-0 loss doesn’t deserve the airtime I’ve already given it, but the 3-1 loss at home on Decision Day spoke to the Timbers in a different way: “You don’t belong here.” In a must-win match, the home team got dominated by a quality opponent. It added a real sting to such a long offseason, and now the Timbers (2-1-0, 7 points) get the chance to set the record straight early in 2024. Last season was the first time the Timbers lost to Houston twice in a calendar year since their inaugural MLS season in 2011. Their historical record against the Dynamo sits at 10-8-8 with a goal differential of -1. Neville, like other MLS head coaches, has high expectations for this Houston team. He fully expects Houston to be in the thick of the title race by the end of the season. “If we have any aspirations to compete in this league, we’ve gotta compete with Houston because they’ll be there or thereabouts at the end of the year.” This is the toughest game so far on the schedule for the Timbers, and it’s a huge opportunity to make a massive statement.

Felipe Mora, Claudio Bravo, and Marvin Loria have been ruled out for this game. Eryk Williamson is off the injury report, but Zac McGraw is questionable with a knee injury. McGraw wasn’t training on Thursday, and Neville had an answer for it. “We modified 2 or 3 players this morning, it’s normal on a Thursday.” Given this answer, I expect McGraw to play tomorrow.

If McGraw isn’t cleared to play, Dario Zuparic will start alongside Kamal Miller. The only real “change” I’m predicting is Eryk Williamson’s return to the starting lineup. I still don’t think that Neville has decided on the first-choice partner alongside Diego Chara, and both Williamson and Paredes offer different skill-sets. This could be Williamson, or it could be Paredes. It’s a tossup, but I think Williamson is back in the XI tomorrow with Paredes available off the bench. David Ayala isn’t at full fitness yet, so at least this decision is a little bit easier. All three of them could play alongside Chara at full health. 

Tactical Preview

Attack

Why am I predicting a Williamson start instead of a Paredes start? Well, if you look at the Dynamo, the Timbers are going to need to be clinical on the counter. Since Houston wants to have the ball but isn’t creating a ton of quality chances, they can afford to let Houston have the ball and then make mistakes. How they respond to those mistakes will be the difference between a win or a draw. Against NYCFC, the Timbers withered under heavy pressure for the first 25 minutes, and then slowly grew into the game. I expect Evander to be a lot more involved in the early stages tomorrow. Williamson will be key to that, because he is better with the ball than Paredes. But my X-Factors for tomorrow are Antony and Santiago Moreno. Both of them can play on either wing and have shown a willingness to switch flanks completely on their own. It’s not a coaching direction, the players are choosing to do it themselves. Moreno in particular looked lethal on the left against NYCFC last weekend. Whoever is on that left side will be dealing with Griffin Dorsey, who loves to get forward and is a key outlet on Houston’s right side. If the Timbers can exploit the space left behind by Dorsey, they’ll be in great shape.

Defense

Juan Mosquera is to the Timbers what Dorsey is to the Dynamo. However, Dorsey tends to stay wide, while Mosquera will often get forward and try to attack the half-spaces. Like Dorsey, Mosquera does leave quite a bit of room behind him. Nelson Quinones had a field day during the 5-0 loss for precisely this exact reason. Aliyu isn’t as good as Quinones, but if there’s space there he’s going to take it. In that 5-0 loss, the Timbers’ midfield turned into butter. There was no pressure applied and the team couldn’t retain the ball. Portland have been far from solid defensively to open 2024, and Maxime Crepeau has already been credited for 1.1 goals saved based on post-shot xG in his two starts. Crepeau is already performing like one of the league’s best keepers, and he will be tested again tomorrow night. Diego Chara put in an excellent performance against NYCFC and will be tested again in this one. Carasquilla is going to cut inside quite a bit on the right to allow Dorsey to overlap. How the Timbers react to this shift will be key to getting a result. 

Final Thoughts

Yesterday, I joined the Designated Pundits Podcast on i80 Sports to help preview this upcoming week of MLS games. One game that got discussed was this Houston-Portland clash. Bob, one of the hosts, chose Portland +0.5 as one of his picks this week. I fully agree with him. Although Houston has plenty of motivation after crashing out of CCC on Tuesday, Portland is just as eager to set the record straight after last season’s disappointments. It is going to be a warm but rainy night in Houston tomorrow, with a chance of thunderstorms. However, the broadcast (5:30 PM kickoff, Apple TV) will be free to watch. Every MLS game is free on Apple TV this week. This game is going to be a reality check for the Timbers. They rode a perfect first half against Colorado to a massive victory to open the season, but then blew a 2-0 lead against DC the week after. After coming behind from a halftime deficit to win on the road for the first time since 2015, the expectations have shifted for Neville’s squad. And now they return to the place of their biggest nightmare in the past year. Time to keep the unbeaten streak rolling.

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