I Hate the 4-3-3 (Yeah You Know Me)

The Portland Timbers beat themselves once again on Saturday night, and now the Cascadia Cup is slipping from their grasp.

Let’s begin with the first half, and there’s really not much to talk about. The Timbers continued to concede in their trademark ways (backpost runs and unmarked headers) while maintaining the lion’s share of possession. Problem is, you need to turn that possession into legit chances, which the Timbers did not do. Diego Chara ended up holding a meeting at midfield before the team went into the locker room, which is something I haven’t seen from this team in a long time.

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Things got fun in the second half. Seemingly out of nowhere, Felipe Mora got his head on a Dairon Asprilla cross to cut the deficit to one. However, Evander gave away a penalty, which Ryan Gauld slotted home to restore Vancouver’s two goal advantage. The substitutes ended up putting in a shift, specifically Santiago Moreno. He played a great through ball to Sebastian Blanco, who squared it for Evander to cut the deficit to one once again. But the equalizer never came, and the Timbers have now lost their fourth game in a row. 

There are many ways to look at tonight’s match, and I’m going to start with the refereeing. Vancouver is very physical, and they figured out how they could be just physical enough to not get the whistle. That’s just smart and taking advantage of a bad referee. I don’t have a problem with that. What I do have a problem with is diving. Tonight’s referee was calling fouls from across the pitch when any Vancouver player went to the ground. That frustration with the referees fueled the Timbers. The penalty was a legitimate penalty. Like Bravo’s stupid foul last week, Evander tried to make a tackle that he shouldn’t have tried to make in the first place. The result was a bad foul and Vancouver effectively icing the game. Except they didn’t. Despite their two goal advantage, they began to waste time. The Timbers players were upset with that, and Franck Boli got booked for dissent because of this. Evander summed it up in his postgame press conference: “It looked like the officials were against us.” Vancouver was definitely more physical, but were outfouled 17-11. Sigh.

The referees aren’t entirely to blame. They did get the penalty call right but the Timbers are once again the victims of themselves. According to the stat sheet, they outshot Vancouver 17-9, with 15 of those shots coming in the box. 7 of those shots were blocked, and two out of five on target went in. That’s just the finishing. Vancouver only had three shots on goal and scored all three. I would like to draw attention to Vancouver’s second, because that was the ugliest goal of the night. That’s not to minimize their first, because I do think it was the beneficiary of a bad deflection but also way too similar to the patterns of this Timbers team. Ryan Gauld found enough space to get his cross in and Brian White’s header was directly at the center of the goal. Aljaz Ivacic saves that. Bingham had three shots he needed to save today and didn’t save any of them. Ugh. 

Tonight’s problems started with the formation. When Miles Joseph became the interim head coach, he said that the team would stick with the 4-3-3 that they had become accustomed to. I am here to remind you that this team has played in a 4-2-3-1 with Evander operating as a roaming playmaker. According to Evander himself, Gio and Joseph gave him free rein to find the game. That includes helping in buildup as well as being in the final third. It’s a lot of work for him to do. However, there is a marker for when this team actually switched to the 4-3-3. All you have to do is look at Cristhian Paredes. 

Paredes has been one of the best players on the team this season. But over the past two games, he’s been awful. And it’s not his fault. The 4-3-3 is not playing to his strengths in any way. Paredes has found success this season operating as a ball winner who makes late runs forward alongside Diego Chara in a double pivot. His tackling and intercepting have been crucial to the team’s defense this season. As an 8 in a 4-3-3, his skills are neutered. He’s not a connector and while he does make forward runs they’re more effective from deeper positions. The team switched to the 4-3-3 two games ago. I don’t care if the coaching staff disagrees with me, that’s how the team looks on the field. They might say that the team has been playing like that for the majority of the season. Well, they might have lined up like it, but they’ve only been playing like it for the past two games. Both of which have been embarrassing losses. Getting Paredes back alongside Diego is the first step that the team can take to fix this problem that they themselves caused. Claudio Bravo has also taken a massive step back over the past two games. I don’t have an explanation for it. He’s not making the tackles he needs to and he was beaten twice tonight for both of Vancouver’s first half goals. It’s also worth noting that he was jogging back to his position and left Evander to cover for him, which resulted in Evander giving away the penalty. Once again, I don’t know why he’s been so utterly bad over the past two games. The Claudio Bravo Haters (trademark) are probably going to say that he’s always been like this. To those people, I offer you my assessment of Bravo: not only can he win matches on his own with his tackling and dribbling ability, but he is also mistake-prone. Those mistakes often come from positioning, not just completely whiffing on tackle attempts. Seeing Richie Laryea victimize him twice before 20 minutes of game time had passed was absolutely shocking. That’s not the Claudio Bravo I know. 

The takes are absolutely FLYING tonight about Evander. Many people see him as directly responsible for tonight’s loss. Yes, giving away a penalty is a crucial point in a match. He has also shown an aptitude to be a hothead. Honestly, I get where he’s coming from. He is a special player who can see so much more of the field than his teammates. The only ones I can think of who are truly on his level in terms of field vision are Santiago Moreno, Sebastian Blanco, and Franck Boli. Who started alongside him tonight? Felipe Mora, Yimmi Chara, and Dairon Asprilla. Mora definitely has the ability to get on Evander’s level, but he hasn’t played with him enough yet to form that connection. Boli has, and he’s been the beneficiary of several great Evander balls throughout this season. This raises the question: is the lack of a good attack this season Evander’s fault or is it more due to the players around him? Yimmi Chara could be on his level, but he’s been injured. Dairon is very close, but it’s still not completely there. This team has dealt with so many recurring injuries and suspensions in 2023 (Evander fits both categories). Next year was always going to be the prove it year, and I’m not concerned about his contributions in the attack. What he does need is someone to help take the creative load off of him, but I’ll get to that later. I have to talk about his attitude. I do not have a problem with his attitude. I think he’s earning a reputation that teams are figuring out how to take advantage of. Take his yellow card tonight as an example. It wasn’t a hard challenge, but Andres Cubas went down. The referee quickly walked over and booked him. Teams are figuring out how to bait him into fouls and then going down when it’s advantageous to them. You already know my thoughts on his second yellow against Tigres. He’s frustrated because this team isn’t adapting to him and his elite passing vision and the other parts of the team he can’t control, like the leaky backline. After he gave away the penalty, he knew that he had f***ed up. He walked to midfield and began to smile. That smile said, “I made a terrible mistake and all I can do is awkwardly smile about it.” It’s the same smile I get on my face when I forget to do the dishes and my girlfriend confronts me about it. I know I screwed up, but for some reason my natural response is to just awkwardly smile and say I’m sorry. If you’re going after Evander for being a little hotheaded, but still love Sebastian Blanco for the passion that he shows on the field, I think you’re being a hypocrite. If teams could bait Blanco into fouls the same way they do to Evander, his hotheadedness would be widely criticized by this fanbase. Right after tonight’s match ended, Evander went home and hopped on Twitch. There’s a ton of responsibility lying on his shoulders, and he just needed to take a break. Don’t waste your breath criticizing him, empathize with all the pressure that’s heaped upon him by this organization and this team. He is supposed to be the key to our attack, and the players on this team still aren’t on the same page as him. He plays “lazily” because he’s Brazilian and that’s how Brazilians play. He still puts in the same amount of effort that every other player on the Timbers does.  I’d be frustrated too.

The Timbers finally began to show a spark when Santiago Moreno and Sebastian Blanco entered the pitch. I could include Franck Boli, but he did more in terms of running than he did on the ball today. Not a knock against Boli at all, but he’s a smaller striker attacking into a back three. There isn’t a ton for him to do except make off ball runs to open space in the box (hello, second Timbers goal tonight). Moreno was brilliant. He showed promise playing inside against Monterrey, but boy did he remind us how good of a player he is tonight. All year, the Timbers have been lacking crucial line-breaking passes in the final third. Moreno played two beautiful ones tonight. The first resulted in the second Timbers goal, and the second resulted in an off-target shot. Santi played as a 10 of sorts, and I think that’s where he needs to be for the rest of the season. In order to fix the attack, the Timbers need to find space in the box. Moreno can definitely help with that. Blanco continues to play on the left wing, and is still a good substitute to bring on. Antony made his Timbers debut, and seemed to stay wider on the right rather than carrying the ball inside. That’s fine, and I thought he looked pretty good in his first appearance for the Timbers. Just have to build off of it. 

Zac McGraw and Dario Zuparic have made a case as the best center back pairing in the league. There’s only one problem: both fullbacks like to play much farther up the pitch. Miguel Araujo didn’t have a shocking outing like he did against Houston, but he also wasn’t entirely impressive either. What did stand out was the distribution. He hit some beautiful long diagonals tonight, and could still help the team with their ball progression. McGraw came on as a substitute tonight, and imposed his superior aerial ability on the Whitecaps. He did manage a shot on target with his head, but it was saved by Yohei Takaoka. I understand why Araujo had to start again tonight, but McGraw and Zuparic are the keys to the Timbers success in defense. Mosquera has began to fade slightly, and it’s not helped by his tendencies. Both him and Bravo want to get forward, but they way they do it is kind of odd. The Timbers’ buildup play deserves its own article, but I’m just going to say that there isn’t enough width provided from the fullbacks in that phase. A defensive minded fullback like Eric Miller is one way to fix the imbalance of the Timbers’ defensive line. But there’s also an option that can play to Bravo and Mosquera’s strengths.

Before you tell me to shut up about the back three, tonight’s performance showed the weaknesses in the attack and the defense. More center backs is a good thing, especially if one of them (Araujo) can really help with ball progression. With Bravo and Mosquera playing as true wingbacks farther up the pitch, they can stay in wider areas to both receive progressive passes and fire crosses into the middle of the pitch. Cristhian Pardes is back to being in a double pivot alongside Diego Chara. Santiago Moreno would partner Evander in the attacking midfield role, giving the Timbers two tens who can play line-breaking passes and crash the box via a late run. And Franck Boli can make runs for both himself and his teammates, finding the space and creating it at the same time. That sounds like a brilliant way to play to the team’s strengths, and if the team is playing to their strengths they’re happy. If they’re happy, they’re going to win games.

Miles Joseph might have started tonight’s match with a repeat offering of Gio’s tactics, but he did something tonight that Gio never did. He openly pointed out a piece of the team’s training and explained how they applied that training to help with their second half turnaround. It’s clear that Joseph does know soccer and realized what adjustments he had to make. Out of all the criticisms of Gio, his substitutions were definitely the one I criticized the most. Joseph got his subs right tonight, and it almost got the Timbers a result. This isn’t just him being the caretaker while the club hunts for another manager. He’s qualified enough to become the new head coach. This is his job interview, and he’s just finished the first audition of ten auditions he will make before the season ends. Obviously (or maybe not) the front office is going to do their due diligence while they search for the 4th head coach in the Timbers’ MLS era. But Joseph is uniquely positioned to state his own case. At tonight’s press conference, he looked a lot more comfortable with the new responsibility he has. Afterwards, he shook every media member’s hand. I know that last detail isn’t really important when discussing aptitude for the head coach of a soccer team, but he’s a nice guy and now he has a chance to implement his style upon the squad. Optimism is definitely warranted surrounding the Timbers interim head coach, and he knows what he has to do in order to win the job.

Time to look at some ugly tables. The Cascadia Cup table isn’t updated yet, and the Whitecaps now have 9 points, two ahead of the Timbers. This is a bad result in a vacuum, but the Timbers are still alive. They just no longer control their own destiny. Certainly not the best way tonight could have ended, but Evander’s goal could end up being crucial in a tiebreaker. Now the Timbers have to beat Seattle, no matter what. We also need Seattle to beat Vancouver on October 7th at Lumen Field. Let’s hope a loss to us on Saturday night can finally get Brian Schmetzer’s head out of his ass so he can take care of business on October 7th.

Now we move on to the real table, and folks, it’s not looking pretty.

The Timbers lost ground again tonight. The good news is only 6 points separate us from the playoffs. There are 9 matches left to make up those points. We’re not dead yet, but boy are we awfully close. A lot of the playoff-deciding matches will be played on the road. Thankfully, Wednesday’s game against RSL will be at Providence Park. RSL followed up their 11-match unbeaten streak with three straight losses. But the first post-Gio match in Seattle will be a lot harder to tackle. We tried to eat the bread of our Jimmy John’s sandwich, but we couldn’t choke it down. Now the remainder of the sandwich has to be eaten. It’s going to be a trying task, and we can’t go to Quiznos. Only Jimmy John’s is on the menu this week, and I don’t like it.

There were encouraging signs from this past match, but the Timbers still lost. I’m not necessarily excited for the rest of the season, but I am intrigued. This team now has nothing to lose and should be putting in the maximum effort to push for the playoffs. If they want to make the playoffs, they need to make some changes from their current formation. The pieces are there for this team to play entertaining, attacking soccer. Last night, we saw a ball-dominant Timbers team. This is a brave new world for the boys in green and gold. But it’s progress. Real Salt Lake comes to Providence Park in two days, and the Timbers will once again need to win. Can the Timbers get those three points that they’re desperately craving? Let’s see if Joseph can help this team bring the fight for a full 90. 

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