LA Galaxy-Portland Timbers Preview (9/30)

Three matches remain in the 2023 season, and now the sprint begins to secure a playoff spot. Saturday’s trip to Los Angeles (7:30 PM, NOT FREE on Apple TV) will see two teams fighting for those spots try to strengthen their cases. However, one of these teams is in much dire straits than the other one. 

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Many national pundits tipped the Galaxy for success in 2023. It was a gaslighting operation of the highest order. Sure, Greg Vanney is an excellent coach. But this team opened the season with a lack of quality wingers and a seven-match winless streak. This didn’t bury the Galaxy, however. The wins have been few and far between, but they’ve continued to be competitive. The early part of their season was defined by protest. Former GM Chris Klein was the most hated man among soccer enjoyers in LA, and he got the boot in May. It was also defined by injuries. Chicharito tore his ACL in June, Gaston Brugman tore his meniscus in August, and Martin Caceres broke his knee cap in June. That’s 3 major contributors sidelined. Will Kuntz, formerly of LAFC, needed to work HARD in the summer transfer window to keep the roster up to par. While most of the league was fawning over RSL’s exploits, the Galaxy added some key veterans. Let’s start with the players who left. Efrain Alvarez was supposed to be a star in MLS, but he could never find some consistent form. Him and Julian Araujo departed the USA for Tijuana and Barcelona, respectively. Memo Rodriguez also left in a trade to Austin. But the Galaxy got Diego Fagundez in return; a definite upgrade. Michael Barrios also came to LA via a trade from Colorado. Two free transfers have stolen the headlines. Maya Yoshida arrived from Schalke after his contract expired and has done an immense job filling in for Caceres. Billy Sharp is a Sheffield United legend. After leading the Blades to another promotion, he realized that he could go play in sunny California instead of suffering through a Premier League campaign with a weak team. He has registered 7 goal involvements (6g/1a) in 7 games since he made his Galaxy debut. Galaxy fans now sing Baby Shark with Billy Sharp’s name substituted. Congratulations to the Seattle Sounders for not being the only team to copy Portland.

The Galaxy are currently in 13th with 34 points in 29 games. That’s one game less than their immediate neighbors and two games behind Portland. There is a six point gap between the Galaxy and 9th-placed Dallas, so they’re not dead yet (mathematically). Every single game they will play for the rest of the season (Portland home, Seattle and Minnesota away, RSL and Dallas home) is against tough competition. There are no cupcakes on this schedule, and they should be aiming to win out in order to make the playoffs. There is one thing that can sink this team: their defense. All of their fullbacks are attack-minded. Their center backs aren’t great. Former Baggie (BOING BOING) Jonathan Bond has regressed in 2023 after being a quality starter since his 2021 arrival in Los Angeles. They are conceding an average of 1.8 goals per game, which is last in the league. They simply cannot keep goals out. Their solution to that is to try and keep the ball so the other team can’t take it and score on them. 56.2% average possession is the 3rd highest mark in MLS. They’re pretty good at keeping the ball too. They complete an average of 467.2 passes per match, which is 1st overall. They have scored at least 2 goals in their past four games, but their record is only 1-2-1. They simply have to score more goals than they allow in order to stay in the playoff race. Not a great situation.

An even worse situation is brewing for the Galaxy regarding their star. Riqui Puig left their last match in Austin early, and has posted Instagram stories of himself in a walking boot. He hasn’t been ruled out yet, but without Puig they won’t have that much of a chance. Their playoff hopes could die with a bad result here (mathematically no, mentally yes) so Vanney has a serious decision to make. Douglas Costa is also questionable, and he’s been playing pretty well this season despite still being a bust in the big picture. They’ve had a full week of rest ahead of this game, so I expect him to be part of the squad tomorrow. Center back Chris Mavinga left the Austin game early with a groin injury, and he’s been ruled out. That’s three key players for the Galaxy. What a cursed season for them.

If the Galaxy want to win tomorrow, this is how they will line up. If Puig isn’t cleared to play, Edwin Cerrillo (another summer acquisition) will fill in for him. He’s nowhere near Puig’s caliber, and is primarily a defensive midfielder. They don’t have another 10 on the roster unless they get creative with one of their wingers. There really isn’t that much else to say about this lineup. It’s loaded with veterans. One other thing to keep in mind is their schedule. This is the first match of a three-match week for the Galaxy, who play in Seattle on Wednesday and in Minnesota next Saturday. Given that it’s a home game, this might look like their best chance to get a win. 

Before I talk about the entirety of the Portland Timbers, I must address the Slovenian elephant that is no longer in the room. Aljaz Ivacic has been suspended by MLS for the remaining three games of the regular season for using threatening language towards team employees. In an article published yesterday by Ryan Clarke of The Oregonian (link here) Ivacic tells his side of the story. It’s very easy to fault him entirely for his own behavior, and he deserves to be suspended for being abusive toward team employees. But his story is interesting. There are parts of truth and lie embedded in it. I think he’s telling the truth about his contract extension and the front office’s suggestion of firing his agent. However, I think he’s lying about his trade requests and the team’s command to come home early from international duty. I was originally going to write a completely separate article on what this means for the team and Ivacic, but I stopped after a page and a half after realizing I was just repeating myself over and over again. Plus Ivacic doesn’t really deserve another whole article about himself. He continues to show that he believes that he is above the team, and now he’s not going to be a part of it for the rest of the regular season. It’s a rapid and unexpected fall from grace, but I don’t think the team really cares. They’re doing just fine without him.

5-1-1. That’s Miles Joseph’s record as the Timbers’ interim head coach, and that includes the four-game winning streak the club is currently on. There is no shortage of goals and the locker room is completely united in the push for the playoffs. The Timbers are beginning to get noticed on the national stage again, and aside from Open Cup winners Houston they are the hottest team in the Western Conference. Their schedule is working against them, as they are tied for the most games played in the table. Most of the teams below them have played at least 1 fewer, so they don’t control their own destiny. What they do control are games. Giovanni Savarese employed a passive approach to games, often letting the team sit back on defense and then open teams up in transition. This season, the Timbers were awful in transition, and Gio got fired. Miles Joseph has emphasized controlling the game with and without the ball. Under Joseph, the Timbers are breaking down opponents backlines and keeping them out of dangerous areas in defense. It’s a delightful turnaround and it has turned the Timbers into a must-watch team. In every single game under Joseph, they have scored a wonderful team goal. That is an on-field reflection of the unity that has permeated the locker room. This dazzling run of form has shown no signs of slowing down. 

They wouldn’t be the Portland Timbers without injuries. Eryk Williamson and David Ayala have begun the on-field portion of their recovery, but it still looks like they won’t be returning for the remainder of the regular season. Yimmi Chara was out against Colorado, and his status is still questionable heading into Saturday. Diego Chara is still recovering from his appendectomy and has been ruled out. He could be back for the season finale against Houston, but that’s still a month away. Like the Galaxy, the Timbers’ top attacking threat is also questionable. Evander was a surprise scratch against Colorado, but it was due to a calf injury. Joseph said his status was still up in the air for Saturday, but I’m going to err on the side of caution. That’s an odd thing to say given that the Timbers only have three games left, but any player pressed into action is fully ready to step in and perform. Especially against this awful Galaxy defense.

It is very odd that this lineup is comforting with no DPs present. That’s a credit to the depth on the roster and the quality in the midfield. Santiago Moreno continues to look like a man reborn since Joseph took over, and he credits his family with being the inspiration. His mom, daughter, and girlfriend are living with him. There’s only one change from the lineup that started against Colorado last weekend, and it’s the return of Cristhian Paredes from yellow card suspension. There are no more short weeks for the Timbers on the schedule, so Joseph can go all out in LA.

What we are going to see in LA are two teams who want the ball. This is where the Timbers can fully impose themselves on a weak Galaxy defense. Miles Joseph continues to work in some tactical tweaks, but the mission is still the same. My X-Factor for this match is Antony. Even if Yimmi is healthy, Antony will start. He definitely deserves it after his excellent showing against Colorado. He has to be direct and go right at Galaxy defenders to open up space for his teammates while also creating space for himself. After being skeptical of his transfer, I can admit that I see Grabavoy’s vision. I’m wondering if someone changed the calendar in Dairon’s phone before the Seattle game. I think when he sees the leaves fall he automatically assumes it’s October. Directly attacking this weak Galaxy defense will result in a lot of chances and quite a few goals. However, a recent pattern in the Timbers’ defense must be addressed. This team conceded right after kickoff in their games against San Jose and Colorado. They’re doing a crossover with West Bromwich Albion, who have done that 4 times in 9 matches so far this season. Zac McGraw spoke on this trend during Thursday’s press conference. He chalked it up to complacency and switching off at critical junctures. This Galaxy team has been thriving on chaos recently. In their last two games, they have come back from a 2-goal deficit twice. Miles Joseph spoke about the Timbers needing to put themselves in a comfortable position with the scoreline in order to avoid this occurrence. He also spoke to the Galaxy’s strength in transition. There are avenues for a Galaxy victory, but the recent form and mentality of the Timbers should make them favorites to snatch all three points.

Center back and top academy prospect Adrian Pelayo signed a deal with North Carolina FC in USL League One this week. It’s another instance of a top prospect not getting a shot with the first team. I’m going to do a deep dive on the state of the academy in the offseason, but I felt like it’s an important thing to mention. 

There were two midweek games, so let’s take a look at the table.

Dallas and Vancouver both drew away from home on Wednesday. Both still have a game in hand over us, but Dallas is still in chase mode.

Here’s what we should be rooting for this weekend. Houston, Nashville, St. Louis, Minnesota and Colorado wins would be fantastic. Same with a DC United victory, but that result looks unlikely. LAFC-RSL is very interesting. LAFC just lost another cup final in the midweek, and RSL is falling off. A draw would be cool, but the result in this game doesn’t concern me that much. It’s also worth watching the Montreal game because they’re our next opponents.

Despite some unwanted distractions in the past week, the Timbers still look primed to continue their blistering form. As the season dwindles down, the Galaxy are trying their hardest to stay alive. With Riqui Puig’s status still in doubt, the Galaxy could be down their best player tomorrow. It’s up to the Timbers to take advantage and keep the ascent going.

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