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LA Galaxy-Portland Timbers Preview (7/20)

The Timbers announced themselves last weekend. Time to prove it.

We’ve finally made it. There is only one more game until the Leagues Cup break. For the Portland Timbers, the schedule-makers have done them a real solid. After two months of reasonably favorable matchups, it’s time for a semi-rivalry game against a true contender.

The Galaxy Report

Well, technically, according to many pundits, the 2024 Los Angeles Galaxy are a team reborn. The dreaded B-word (“back”) has been tossed around, and people in Carson are beginning to believe again. Allow me to set the record straight: although the Galaxy are massively improved from a lengthy slumber, they are not back yet.

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2022 was not a fun year to be a Galaxy fan. Although they finished 4th in the West and had a very good attack headlined by Chicharito (remember him?), they fell to their arch-rivals in the playoffs. The hangover lasted through the entirety of 2023, when the Galaxy missed the playoffs. However, Will Kuntz joined the technical staff after leaving LAFC, and they began to rebuild the team in the image of their neighbors. Well, not entirely, but in some sense they strayed from the light. Since the arrival of David Beckham, the LA Galaxy were almost single-handedly responsible for giving MLS a reputation as a retirement league. Steven Gerrard, Giovani dos Santos, Romain Alessandrini, and others (Zlatan doesn’t count) came to Carson to collect a paycheck and get some well-earned cardio. Under Kuntz’s stewardship, LAFC tried the “retirement route” with players like Gareth Bale but those players weren’t the centerpieces of the team. In 2023, the Galaxy were led by Chicharito and Douglas Costa. Kuntz’s first move was to dump the useless DPs and replace them with younger players who are close to entering their prime.

Riqui Puig arrived in 2022 but wasn’t able to raise the level of the players around him. He needed some elite players around him to truly unlock his abilities. The first of those players to arrive was Gabriel Pec. Early in January, there were rumors linking Pec with a potential move to Portland. But the Brazilian chose to sign with LA (shocker), and has been one of the best wingers in the league during his first season. 9g/9a in 24 games is fantastic. Pec is only 23, and Kuntz’s next priority was finding another winger who was closer to his prime. Enter 26-year-old Joseph Paintsil, whose transfer from Belgian side Genk was finalized the week the season kicked off. Paintsil has also been performing like one of the best wingers in the league, notching 7g/5a in 21 matches. Dejan Joveljic was stuck behind Chicharito for the last two seasons, but now he’s firmly entrenched as the starting striker. His 12 goals lead the team. Puig finally has enough talent around him to focus purely on progressing the ball to those talented attackers.

That may seem reductive of Puig’s abilities, but the stats back me up.

Based on this graph (compared against attacking midfielders NOT central midfielders) Puig is the Galaxy’s entire ball progression unit. Everything going forward flows through him. He is involved from box-to-box. If you go by base counting stats, Puig has 7g/5a in 21 matches. That’s not bad by any means. However, if you include secondary assists, Puig’s assist total rises to 10. The Spaniard is one of the best players in the league, and he might be the best pure 10 in the league. Puig’s specialty is the pass-before-the-pass. This spell-binding attacking display from Puig and his compatriots has brought the Galaxy to 1st in the West with a 13-7-5 record and 46 points. When the Galaxy made the playoffs in 2022, they finished the season with 50 points. While the Galaxy are making quite a case for being “back,” there is still one anchor that’s holding them down.

This defense is not great! In fact, I don’t even think that it’s good! Going purely off of non-penalty expected goals, the Galaxy have the 4th-worst defense in the league. This is even more mesmerizing when you consider that the Galaxy have the 3rd-highest average possession in the league! However, the Galaxy have conceded the 10th-fewest goals per 90 in the league. So they are surrendering a ton of big chances, but new goalkeeper John McCarthy (formerly of LAFC) has been performing out of his mind. Good shot-stopping can be measured by post-shot expected goal differential, and McCarthy is tied for the best mark in the league with Charlotte’s Kristijan Kahlina with a positive differential of 7. McCarthy has been performing out of his mind and erasing many of the deficiencies with the Galaxy’s defense. Once the Galaxy lose the ball, it turns into chaos. The fullbacks are often caught too high which leaves acres of space for opposing players to attack into. The center backs are often left on an island which can lead to disaster. Before I continue, DOES THIS SOUND FAMILIAR TO ANYONE????

This is from mid-April, when the Timbers were almost halfway through their winless streak. Fast-forward to now, and now the two teams are now 10 points apart in the table (although the Galaxy have played one more game than the Timbers). Portland’s resurgence has been due to structural defensive improvement. LA still has a way to go there. Bottomline: these teams are very similar to each other. The Galaxy’s top-tier talent has been able to overcome that while the Timbers were still figuring out how to fly the plane. Let’s check back in with this on September 18th when these two teams play again.

Dejan Joveljic, Julian Aude, and Gaston Brugman have been ruled out due to injury. This is the 3rd match in a week for the Galaxy, and many of their starters have played significant minutes already, including full 90s on Wednesday against Colorado. Marco Reus will join this team soon, but he won’t be available for tomorrow’s match. Glad to see the Galaxy return to their roots.

Given the severity of this game, the Galaxy cannot afford to rotate. The only change I foresee is Nelson starting at left back while Yamane moves back over to his natural role on the right. Both midfielders played 90 minutes on Wednesday. Pec and Puig did the same. Fagundez has been a key contributor for the Galaxy this season. Paintsil has been playing as a false 9 during Joveljic’s absence. Like the Timbers, the current backup striker (Miguel Berry) should be upgraded in the summer. This Galaxy team will be tired but motivated, and all of their attackers are capable of scoring.

The Timbers Report

“Last night was another little reminder that I really enjoyed,” Phil Neville said during Thursday’s press conference. “Everyone won. I knew everyone would win.” The head coach is referencing Wednesday’s slate of MLS games when the Portland Timbers were the only team in the league who didn’t play a game. Like Neville said, all of the Timbers’ closest table rivals won their games during the middle of the week (minus Colorado but I’ll get to that in a couple weeks). With so many other teams having a game in hand against Portland entering yesterday’s slate of games, it was an opportunity for other teams to drop points. However, with plenty of favorable matchups around the league, those teams took care of business.

Since a dramatic resurrection against San Jose on May 15th, the Portland Timbers have only taken care of business. They’ve lost only two of the following 11 games, and have been building momentum with each result. Claudio Bravo spoke to reporters on Tuesday, and he gave one response that perfectly sums up the mentality that Neville has instilled in this squad. He was asked about what he thinks his best game of the season has been. “I haven’t played my best game yet.” Portland’s 3-0 win against RSL last weekend was far and away their best win of the season. But trophies aren’t won with a statement win over a good team. In order for Portland to fully embrace being a contender, a win tomorrow would boost their case.

Kamal Miller is back from Copa America! While he was on international duty, he didn’t stop following his club team. There are a lot of MLS players on Canada’s roster, so Miller wasn’t alone when watching Timbers games. He was joined by fellow Canadian and Nashville SC player Jacob Shaffelburg when the two teams faced off earlier this month. When the Timbers took a 4-0 lead into halftime, much to Miller’s delight, Shaffelburg decided to go to bed. During the two open days of training, Miller looked glad to be back. The team has been able to figure out the structural deficiencies in the defense while he was gone, so he’s coming back to a different team. “We have a rhythm now and a clear style of play. It’s nice to come back to a healthy locker room.”

The first signing of the summer is here! Center back Finn Surman has joined the club from Wellington Phoenix in the A-League. I already wrote a blurb about him in Part 2 of my Summer Transfer Window Preview (go read that if you haven’t already). He’s 20 years old and could be a key piece for the team in the coming seasons. Shrewd business from Ned Grabavoy to begin the transfer window.

Marvin Loria will miss this game due to injury. On Thursday, Neville alluded to giving Loria some T2 minutes to regain some fitness in the coming weeks. David Ayala has also been ruled out with a leg injury. According to Neville, he’s still feeling the after-effects of the tackle from Brian Anunga in the Nashville game. Maxime Crepeau has been dealing with Green Card complications, and will not be back with the team for this match. Neville anticipates that he will be back for the Leagues Cup opener against Leon next weekend.

Ayala’s absence will allow Williamson to make his second consecutive start in the double pivot. The front four is settled. Miller’s return is very interesting. I think that Neville will opt to be more defensive and start Miller at left back to shut down Pec. It’s a bad idea to break up the partnership of Zuparic and Araujo at center back, and this could allow Claudio Bravo to act as a super-sub. Another start for Pantemis while Crepeau sorts out his Green Card. With a week off to prepare, no rotation is needed. Full strength Timbers tomorrow night for a huge game.

Tactical Preview

Organization

This Galaxy attack can kill you in possession and in transition. Which is why tomorrow’s game will be the biggest test for the Timbers’ improved defense. Their shape will be crucial. Pec and Paintsil are both fast as hell, and the Galaxy will be looking for any opportunity to hit the Timbers on the counter. The new-found high press won’t just have to be effective; it will have to be organized. The Timbers have been playing a high line as of late, and that could spell disaster in this game. Not only will they have to hold that line to try to deploy the offside trap, they will have to recover in time to nullify any potential threat. There’s one big question that will determine whether or not the Timbers are actually genuine contenders: can they play on the front foot away from home while maintaining proper organization? This is the question that they will have to answer in this game. If the answer is yes, this Timbers team is an actual contender. If the answer is no, they’re still a good team but still behind the top teams in the league.

Set Pieces

This has nothing to do with defense. The Galaxy have allowed the most goals on set pieces this season. The Timbers were practicing corner kick routines on Thursday, so expect some interesting designs during every corner kick. Although the Timbers have scored off of 4 set pieces so far, none of them have come from corner kicks. Evander and Williamson are excellent corner-kick takers, and this is a great game for the Timbers to break that duck.

Final Thoughts

Announcer Analytics

For the second week in a row, FS1 will broadcast a Timbers game. Keith Costigan and Maurice Edu will be on the English broadcast for Apple, while Jorge Perez-Navarro and Marcelo Balboa will be on the Spanish broadcast. This game is FREE on Apple TV, and it will kick off at 7:55 PM PST because of FOX. Ugh.

Referee Report

Sergii Boiko will be the center ref for tomorrow’s match. Boiko is a personal hero of mine because he’s very bad at his job. I love watching him officiate games that do not involve the Portland Timbers. This is the first Timbers game he has ever refereed. And it’s the first Galaxy game he has ever refereed. And it’s a very big one. Ugh.

Final Whistle

The Galaxy hold the historical advantage over Portland with a 13-9-11 record. However, the record is even on goal differential. LA is 9-5-3 against the Timbers at Dignity Health Sports Park. The last two meetings between these two teams in LA have been draws, and Portland’s last win in LA was on October 7th, 2020 when the Timbers won 6-3 behind two braces from Felipe Mora and Jeremy Ebobisse.

This is a massive weekend for the Western Conference playoff picture. All of the top 8 teams play each other and points will be dropped. If results go the Timbers way and they take care of business in Carson, they could find themselves in 4th as they enter Leagues Cup. But based on Neville’s Thursday comments, what the other teams do isn’t as important as what the Timbers do. There is a gap forming between the top 8 and the rest of the conference. The Timbers need to do their job and extend that gap, no matter where they land on the table once the action comes to a close on Saturday night.

This is by far the biggest test for the Timbers so far in the season. While pundits have been way too willing to throw around the “B” word in regards to their opponents, the Portland Timbers have always had to earn the respect of the national media landscape. If they win this game, there are no excuses to keep ignoring them. Because if they are able to win, it will be due to their defense, which has been much-maligned to the point of inducing headaches. Portland already made a big statement last weekend, now they have to follow it up in a difficult road environment.