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LAFC-Portland Timbers Preview (4/27)

It's their second meeting in three weeks, and both teams are itching to set the record straight.

*Cover photo credit to Thomas Lal/Cascadia FC*

The Portland Timbers are hitting the road once again this week. Their opponent is the same one that they faced at Providence Park two weeks ago: LAFC (7:30 PM, NOT FREE on Apple TV).

The LAFC Report

Even though it has only been two weeks since these two teams played, there have been a couple of developments for the hosts. LAFC have signed a new forward, even though he won’t be joining until the summer. Olivier Giroud is a name that is familiar to every person who follows European soccer. From his days at Montpellier to his excellent Arsenal tenure, Giroud is one of the greatest strikers of this era. He has won the World Cup, a Champions League, a Europa League, league titles in Italy and France, four FA Cups, and three Community Shields. In addition to his team accolades, he is also a Puskas winner. Although he won’t join until the Euros are over, it’s a huge transfer for LAFC.

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Meanwhile, the Black-and-Gold were in action last weekend as they hosted New York Red Bulls. The visitors took the lead twice but LAFC were able to find two equalizers through Denis Bouanga. One came from a penalty (shocker) and the other was a deflected shot that found the back of the net. LAFC had the majority of possession (58%) and took more shots against a very good Red Bulls team. A draw was deserved, although the actual goals erred on the side of luck.

What else can I really say about a team that the Timbers faced two weeks ago? LAFC are still 2nd in MLS in npXg/90. All they really need is to keep converting those chances. When LAFC traveled to Providence Park two weeks ago, they were winless on the road. Due to the resulting draw, they are still searching for their first road win. But at home, the Black-and-Gold are still excellent. In 2024, LAFC are 3-2-0 at BMO Stadium. Historically, the Timbers are 1-3-3 at BMO Stadium. That win came in September 2021, when Yimmi Chara and Dairon Asprilla scored and the Timbers completed a smash-and-grab win. Will the Timbers need to smash-and-grab on Saturday?

Only one change to the LAFC injury report from two weeks ago. Aaron Long left the Red Bulls game early and is questionable with a lower leg injury. Lorenzo Dellavalle and David Martinez are both out.

Kei Kamara got the start against Red Bulls and didn’t impress. Bogusz was LAFC’s best player in the first meeting between these two and he should start as a false 9 again. Bouanga and Olivera are locked in on the wings, despite Olivera’s underwhelming start to his LAFC career. Luis Muller and Nathan Ordaz are players to watch off the bench. Atuesta was dropped last week but should be back in the lineup for this game. Sanchez and Tillman are locked in starters. Hollingshead, Palencia, and Lloris are Sharpied in. The center back position is interesting because of Long’s questionable status. Maxime Chanot should start regardless, but there is a debate to be had between Long, Murillo, and Eddie Segura for the final spot. I don’t think Long will be healthy enough to start, but he should be on the bench. Segura had a disasterclass against Red Bulls, and Murillo missed that game due to injury. I expect noted piggyback enthusiast Murillo to be back in the lineup this week. Only one change from their meeting two weeks ago, but LAFC do have home-field advantage.

The Timbers Report

Confidence has been the word flying around the Timbers’ practice facility this week. Despite a 6-game winless streak, the locker room has been growing in confidence. “We took a lot of confidence out of the game against Columbus,” Phil Neville said on Thursday. “Everybody looks to be in really good shape and they’re looking forward to the game.” Diego Chara echoed his head coach’s sentiment. “We’re really confident in what we’re doing on the attacking side. We’ve just been trying to figure out how to be better in defense during the week.” Every MLS talking head has been grilling the Timbers over their defensive deficiencies since the year began. But what do the numbers say about Portland’s defense?

Goals conceded is still the biggest number that matters, and the Timbers are tied for the 2nd-most goals conceded in MLS with 18. They have allowed the 8th-most shots on target per 90 in the league. Although that second number isn’t completely awful, the Timbers are tied with the 4th-worst psXg per shots on target per 90. They’re giving up some brutally easy chances for the opposition. But over the past couple of games, the Timbers have not been conceding the easy chances. There has been improvement, but they’ve had to work on the defense while facing a gauntlet of a schedule. Only two teams have failed to record a clean sheet in 2024. Portland is one, and Wooden Spoon frontrunners San Jose are the other. The Timbers will always find a way to score goals and win games, but the entire team is hungry for a clean sheet.

Diego Chara is about to become the dictionary definition of one-club man. When he takes the field in Los Angeles, he will become the sole record-holder of most MLS regular season games played with one team. I don’t know what else I can say about the greatest Timber of all time. His record speaks for itself and the entire team is behind their captain for this game. No one in MLS’ history is more deserving of this honor than Diego Chara.

There is a new name on the injury report this week. Evander has been added after taking a knock in training this weekend. He’s questionable with a leg injury. Antony is also questionable with a knee injury after missing last week’s game in Columbus. Dario Zuparic is off the report, while Marvin Loria is still out.

Maxime Crepeau is back in the starting lineup after serving his red card suspension, and is eager to return to his former home stadium as a visitor. No changes on the backline. Jonathan Rodriguez and Felipe Mora should start on the left and up top, respectively. Mora has scored 4 goals in 4 consecutive games, and there are other impressive Mora numbers I will get to later. With the status of Evander and Antony up in the air, I’m going to err on the side of caution. Santiago Moreno will probably start on the right, and Eryk Williamson will make his second consecutive start. Williamson will be farther up the pitch, rather in the double pivot. David Ayala should be back in the starting lineup this week, partnering the record-breaker in midfield. I do expect Evander and Antony to be available on the bench. Despite the absence of their star man, this is an excellent XI.

Tactical Preview

More Volume

I’ve already covered the Timbers’ defensive struggles, but now it’s time to look at the attack. There is no question that the Portland Timbers can score goals. Their 17 goals scored in 2024 is tied for the third most in MLS. But they are scoring because of their incredible efficiency. In terms of shot-creating actions, the Timbers are 21st out of 29 MLS teams with 20 SCAs per 90. No player exemplifies the Timbers’ ruthless efficiency in front of goal than Felipe Mora. So far in 2024, Mora has only taken 6 shots. 5 of those have found the target and 4 of those have found the back of the net. His 66.7% shot-conversion rate is the best in MLS. The numbers aren’t lying. The Timbers need to create more in the final third.

Normally, LAFC would want to have the ball. But since their MLS Cup win, the Black-and-Gold have become something of a one-trick pony. They are failing to create chances in possession, but are elite on the counter. That’s what Denis Bouanga brings to the team. They remain excellent on set pieces, even though they allowed an unmarked Emil Forsberg to smash home NYRB’s second off of a corner kick. I’m predicting this game to be very back-and-forth. Both teams will get to have the ball, and whichever team is more effective at creating good opportunities will have the upper hand. Without Evander, the Timbers will have to be ruthless on the counter. That’s where Eryk Williamson enters the picture. He was masterful against Colorado when the Timbers were ruthless on the counter. However, he struggled against DC when the Timbers were encouraged to have more of the ball and DC pressed them to death. Allowing Williamson to be the focal point of the counterattack will do wonders. But LAFC is also a good pressing team, and they’re well-organized in defense. Juan Mosquera’s attacking abilities will have to be neutered a bit because of Bouanga’s threat. So Santiago Moreno and Jonathan Rodriguez will have to create and finish in the final third. Mora will find space, but it’s up to the creators to find them.

Restarts

LAFC like to take throw-ins and deep free-kicks quickly. Portland has been a lot better at staying organized in open play, but they can be victimized by quick restarts. Due to Neville’s continued focus on defensive mentality, I think they’ll continue to improve in that regard. But LAFC is still monstrous on set pieces. They love flick-on headers and they have the aerial threats to punish poor marking. Oddly enough, the defense isn’t the concerning part for this game. As long as the Timbers continue their upward trend of improvement, they’ll be fine. Just don’t give Denis Dastardly any opportunity to go down in the box.

Final Thoughts

Announcer Analytics

Since MLS Season Pass was launched last season, there is a rotating cast of commentary teams for all MLS matches. Given that there’s a full season under Apple’s belt, I think it’s time to introduce a new feature: Announcer Analytics. Each week, I will look at the Timbers’ record when a certain announcer is calling their games. Max Bretos and Brian Dunseth are back in the booth this weekend. On the Spanish side, Jorge Perez-Navarro and Marcelo Balboa will be on the call.

Bretos: 2-5-2

Dunseth: 2-4-1

Perez-Navarro: 3-4-1

Balboa: 3-4-1

Referee Report

Like Announcer Analytics, let’s take a look at this week’s center referee: Ismail Elfath.

Games Involving LAFC: 7-3-3 (5-2-3 at home), 1.92 yellows/game (2.77 for opponents), 1 red card (2 for opponents), 13.62 fouls per game (14.62 for opponents)

Games Involving Portland: 12-6-6 (6-4-3 on the road), 2.13 yellows/game (1.88 for opponents), 2 red cards (2 for opponents), 13.67 fouls per game (13.92 for opponents)

Previous LAFC-Portland games, PTFC record 0-1-1, yellow cards 7-4 Portland, red cards 1-0 Portland, zero penalties called in either game

Closing Arguments

The Timbers have all the motivation necessary to end their losing streak. Crepeau is returning and is going to want another crack at his former team. Chara is setting a MLS record that might never be broken. Portland is winless in six. Despite their underperformance, LAFC is still a very tough opponent. The Timbers are stuck between their playoff-level attack and their basement-level defense. They have another chance to change the narrative behind their slow start, and BMO Stadium is a perfect venue to do it. They’ve run into some bad refereeing decisions, horrific luck, and their own growing pains over the past month. Time to put it all together.