Leagues Cup: Portland Timbers-San Jose Earthquakes Preview (7/22)

The regular season break has begun, and now a new challenge awaits the Portland Timbers. Leagues Cup used to be a few glorified friendlies in the middle of the season, but now it’s a whole new animal. 

Let’s begin with the groups. There are 15 groups of 3 teams each. Two teams (Pachuca and LAFC) will enter the competition in the knockout stage after they won their respective leagues in 2022. Only two teams per group will advance to the knockouts. How will those teams be decided? Standard points will be used, with 3 for a win and 0 for a loss. If any match is tied after 90 minutes, there will automatically be penalties. Both teams that enter the penalty shootout will get one point, and the winner gets an extra point. Every match in the knockout stage is single-elimination. In terms of rewards, there are 3 CCL spots up for grabs. The winner of the 3rd Place Match and the 2 clubs in the final will automatically qualify for CONCACAF Champions Cup (the new form of CCL that will be debuting in either 2024 or 2025). Prize money is also a factor, with the winning club set to win 2 million dollars. Although some clubs might not want to take this tournament seriously, there is plenty at stake. All clubs should be trying to win this cup. 

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The Timbers’ group consists of the San Jose Earthquakes and Tigres. We play Tigres on Wednesday, so I’m only going to take a look at San Jose in this preview. At the regular season break, the Quakes are 8-8-7 with a goal differential of -1. Their 32 points are good enough for 6th in the Western Conference. However, I believe that record is misleading. They are a good team that is underperforming. They have underperformed their expected goals by 2. I think there’s one key weakness to this team. Despite some quality play from all their attackers, they only average 3.2 shots on target per match (28th in the league). Looking at their defensive stats, one number does stand out. 35 xG Against is third-worst in the league. But they have only conceded 29 actual goals so far. New goalkeeper Daniel is making his case for the best keeper in the league this season. He has 3 clean sheets and has saved two out of the four penalties he’s faced. With an xG faced of 19.26, he’s only conceded 14 goals. His stellar season speaks largely to the Earthquakes’ whole vibe this year. Good players not getting a ton of national recognition balling out. The one exception to that rule is Cristian Espinoza, who is rightfully being touted as a MVP candidate with his excellent 11g/5a first half. But players like Jackson Yueill, Carlos Akapo, Carlos Gruezo, Rodrigues, and Miguel Trauco have been key to the Quakes’ improvement in 2023. I also cannot forget to mention Jeremy Ebobisse. He’s second on the team with 7 goals. In a weak Western Conference, the Quakes seem like an actually good team. Despite their weaknesses, this team could make a deep run in the MLS Cup Playoffs.

San Jose should be fully healthy. So it’s not too hard to predict their XI.

First choice XI for the Quakes. They have had 10 days of rest ahead of this match, so they should be very prepared. I wish I had more analysis of this XI, but I would be very surprised if Luchi Gonzalez didn’t select this team. Their Tigres match will happen next Sunday, so they will have another full week of rest ahead of that fixture. It will also be at PayPal Park. Although they are technically the weakest team in the group (according to the cup draw) the schedule did them a lot of favors. 

Last Saturday’s incredible win against Columbus turned Providence Park into a Timbers wonderland once again. The boost that it provided was evident during Friday’s training session. Laughs and smiles were heard and seen around the practice field. Santiago Moreno was also back in training with no limitations. The same couldn’t be said for Franck Boli. Giovanni Savarese said that Boli is not available for Saturday’s match. Another hamstring injury, sigh. The good(ish) news is that the Timbers are actually pretty (comparatively) deep at striker. So what will their team look like on Saturday night?

There are a couple of factors that I kept in mind while I was picking this XI. The first (and obvious) one is who will replace Boli up top. I still believe Felipe Mora will be on a minutes restriction so Niezgoda will get another start. Mora should still see the field, but as a substitute. The Tigres match is on Wednesday, so there needs to be some rotation. I don’t think Santiago Moreno is still in trouble, so his benching is purely a rotation move. Yimmi Chara is the most likely player to be subbed out for Moreno on Saturday. Paredes will probably get subbed for Caliskan at some point as well. Questions remain about Miguel Araujo’s debut, and I think it might come on Saturday. Although he is a center back, he can also play right back. A substitute appearance for Juan Mosquera seems like a decent way for Araujo to make his debut. There is a growing keeper competition, and I think David Bingham gets another opportunity to face his former team. I don’t think the Timbers have a true number one this season, but both Bingham and Aljaz Ivacic are good enough to start. Competition just pushes players harder, and that’s a positive for this team. 

In their previous match in 2023, the Timbers and Earthquakes battled to a scoreless draw. The Timbers won the game on xG so they should’ve probably won it in real life. (Recap of that game here.) They had a couple of very good opportunities but failed to score. Sigh. In order to get a win this time, they simply need to score a couple of counters and minimize Espinoza’s threat. Espinoza was still dangerous in the prior meeting, but Claudio Bravo still did a good job against him. I would expect Bravo to stay back while Juan gets forward. The counterattacks continue to be a problem despite the Timbers’ second goal against Columbus. I’ve stated before that the Timbers’ biggest enemy in those situations continues to be themselves. I will stick by that purely because they continue to prove my point. It’s all mental. Finding the right pass or shot continues to be the hurdle they must cross in order to consistently be good on counters. So simple, but so hard at the same time. Substitutes will also be important in this match. Sebastian Blanco, Felipe Mora, and Santiago Moreno will be the match-winners that Savarese can bring in off the bench. The Timbers will definitely keep this match competitive, but they need to ace all the details to capture the crucial three points.\

I’m not going to talk about any of the other teams in Leagues Cup outside of the Timbers’ group unless they advance. So if you wanted me to talk about Miami’s completely legit (eyeroll) roster build, you’ll have to wait. However, there is one aspect that I will dig further into, and that’s the bracket.

The Timbers are in West 1. If they advance, they will either face the West 2 winner or West 3 second. That would put the Timbers against (likely) Monterrey/RSL or Club Leon. I’m not discounting Seattle out of hatred but rather the strength of their group. The Timbers could believe that they are in the Group of Death, but West 2 (Monterrey/RSL/Seattle) and Central 1 (Club America/Columbus/STL) have better claims to that title. Winning the group puts the Timbers in a much better position to advance deeper in the tournament than finishing second. And the first step to winning the group is a win against San Jose on Saturday.

In Friday’s press conference, Giovanni Savarese declared, “Providence Park is a special place.” With both opponents having to play at the Timbers’ home field, this is an advantage that they can’t afford to lose. The Timbers also have a historical advantage against the Earthquakes at Providence Park, going unbeaten against them in all competitions (14-4-0). A draw would be nice, but the Timbers have the momentum necessary to ensure a victory. But like the result at PayPal Park on June 17th, the match must be won on the field, not just the stat sheet. 

All Leagues Cup matches are airing on Apple TV. This one is also being shown on FS1, so the 7:00 PM kickoff is a lie. 7:25 PM is the actual kickoff time. FOX continues to disappoint me. 

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