Minnesota United-Portland Timbers Preview (7/1)

July is here, and the Timbers are traveling to Minneapolis to face Minnesota United (5:30 PM, Apple TV). There’s a lot to get to in this preview, so let’s get started. 

After their last-gasp victory at Providence Park on May 20, some would’ve thought that Minnesota would keep the momentum from that critical win. However, they haven’t won a game since. Their results since that agonizing match have included a 4-0 loss in Montreal and 2 home draws. Speaking of their home form, they have only won one match at Allianz Field (fantastic stadium, seriously, it gets almost no love because Minnesota is in Minnesota and no one cares about Minnesota). There are many factors that contribute to that, but one stat in particular jumps off the page. Minnesota has scored 17 goals and have a total expected goals number of 26.6. That’s really bad. No DP number 9 can fix that. The Minnesota front office disagrees with me, as they have already signed former Norwich City striker Teemu Pukki to a DP deal. He won’t be eligible to play in this match, but I’m not a big fan of the signing. Sure, it’s a big(ish) name. But Pukki has been awful since Norwich were promoted in 2021. Yes, he has scored goals, but he’s 33 and he’s been injured a lot recently. He could be the savior for a team that is still starving for a striker, but I’m doubtful he elevates the team significantly. 

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The Loons are 5-6-7 with a record of 1-5-1 at home. That’s 8 points in 7 matches on their own turf. That xG difference is really rearing its head, but the return of Emanuel Reynoso should help. The absence of Robin Lod continues to hurt them. Three players (Dayne St. Clair, Kemar Lawrence and Joseph Rosales) are on international duty. Franco Fragapane (eww) was out last weekend with a thigh injury, and he might be back this week. 

There is nothing pretty about this Minnesota lineup. I don’t think Fragapane will be healthy enough to start, so Jung Sang Bin will start in his place. Out of all their available players, this is their first choice XI. No changes from their lineup last weekend at RSL. 

Now we get to the interesting part of this preview. After a tough draw against NYCFC, the Timbers are 5-7-8 and in 10th place. The main story of the week came from an unexpected source. Dario Zuparic doesn’t like talking to the media. But he had a press conference on Tuesday, and his answers were like a breath of fresh air. He started by saying the team needed to be more aggressive in matches. OK, that tracks. Very spot-on. The quote that raised the most eyebrows, however, was this one: 

“When I look at other teams, they have more quality players. They pay more for players, and they bring in more quality players. We need to because competition is really hard. We have problems with injuries, and that’s why I think we need more quality players. If we are all healthy, we have a good team. But this year, even one game we haven’t played with the best eleven. It’s always something that happens.”

He went on to drop some more gems, such as saying that he didn’t know who new signing Miguel Araujo was but then saying that he was a good player and he’s happy Araujo is coming. After his conference, he said to the media, “Thank you. See you again in 5 years.” 

Who can blame him? He’s frustrated, and nothing he said was wrong in any way. This team does need significant investment, and we will see another example of this team’s lack of depth this weekend. 

By now, you’ve probably heard that Evander is suspended for Saturday’s match. Late in the tie with NYCFC, this happened.

https://twitter.com/SportsGuyJeremy/status/1674514151874637825?s=20

Yes, it’s not a great video. But it was called a yellow card on the field. I think it’s a yellow card foul because there’s no true malicious intent. Without malicious intent, how can it be violent conduct? You might remember the overturned red card in the Dallas game, when Geovane Jesus elbowed Diego Chara and the ref awarded yellows to both Jesus and Chara. That was the definition of violent conduct. You can’t just throw an elbow at an opposing player. Evander gave him a light, open-handed slap, late in a game that featured a ton of unpenalized time-wasting from the visitors. The Disciplinary Committee upgrading that foul to a suspension and not doing anything about Jesus’ elbow is disgusting. It’s just outright wrong. Now Evander will miss this match for a yellow card offense. I can’t wait until this league actually starts acting like the big serious league that they claim to be. When there is an actual league-sponsored segment about the various fuck-ups of their referees you know something is seriously wrong. Despicable.

As stated before, Evander will miss this match. Dairon Asprilla and Sebastian Blanco are also confirmed out. Yimmi Chara’s targeted return is July 15 against Columbus, so he will miss this match as well. Cristhian Paredes isn’t on the injury report, but I think he’ll be a game-time decision. 

With Evander’s absence, this lineup gets a little tricky. This is purely what I would do in this situation, although I do think Gio might stick with his 4-2-3-1 with Marvin on the left wing and Santi at the CAM with Mosquera on the wing. There is a particular reason why I went with this setup, and I’ll explain it later in my tactical preview. None of the back four are question marks. Paredes might not be good to go, so the door could be opened for Noel Caliskan again. Victor Griffith will be available for this match. That does raise some questions about Paredes’ availability but if Paredes is healthy he should be good to go for 60 minutes maximum. Managing minutes with such a quick turnaround is going to be hard. Luckily there is no fixture this upcoming weekend, so there won’t be a ton of rotation. 

Zuparic said the team needed to show more aggression when he reluctantly stepped in front of the microphone Tuesday. That’s why the key to a victory in Minnesota is a heavy Press with a capital P. Even though the squad is thin, and a Tuesday trip to Colorado is on the horizon, Evander’s absence lends itself well to a consistent and heavy press. Playing Mosquera on the wing is a cheat code for the press, and Eric Miller provides the solidity to the backline in case the Loons play through it. Either Loria or Fogaca can fit into the press, but the 4-4-2 shape will be more effective. Loria should still see minutes, probably in relief of Moreno for rest reasons. With such an energetic front line, the chances will have to come from the press instead of the suspended Evander. One late counterattack was Portland’s undoing in their first matchup, and Minnesota will want more of the ball at home. The Timbers will also need to focus on set pieces. Last week’s concession was the first time in 15 matches that the Timbers conceded on a set piece. Attacking set pieces continue to be a non-event for this club, so some creativity on corner kicks and free kicks will need to be used without Evander’s weapon of a right foot. To hit on another recurring theme, this team needs to shoot at every open angle. If the opening is there, find a shot. This is still a winnable game for Portland.

Once again, the Timbers will have a late local kickoff time. Given the high temperatures in the Twin Cities, it looks to be a blessing in disguise. Oddly enough, the Timbers have never won in Minnesota. Last year’s chaotic 4-4 draw was the first time the Timbers left the Land of Ten Thousand Lakes with any points. Giovanni Savarese knows that. He spoke on that during Friday’s press conference. Tomorrow’s match will be a tale of 2 immovable objects: one that can’t win at home and one that has never won at Allianz Field. Everything about this game screams 1-1 draw, but it’s still very winnable. Given the squad depth and the quick turnaround, a draw would be a good result in my eyes as well.

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