MLS Cup Playoffs Round 1 Game 1: Portland Timbers-San Diego Preview (10/26)
Somehow it has only been a week since Decision Day. The Portland Timbers were busy in the meantime, dispatching RSL 3-1 in the Wild Card Game. After a full 7 days since their humiliation at the hands of San Diego FC, the Timbers have earned a way to have a chance at revenge.
The San Diego Report
There isn’t much to write with such an immediate re-match. Thankfully, Hirving Lozano offered up an intriguing through-line.
The star Mexican winger was noticeably absent from San Diego’s squad last weekend. After their 4-0 victory, Mikey Varas gave an update on his status. “We had a situation that we’re dealing with internally.” That’s a pretty good example of coach-speak, but it’s also a prime example of why reporters exist.
Per Tom Bogert of The Athletic, Lozano’s “situation” began at halftime during San Diego’s game against Houston on October 4th. The Mexican winger was subbed off at halftime, and reportedly got into a verbal altercation with unnamed team personnel. However, Lozano posted an update on Instagram on Thursday to calm the flames.
The red flag is the language of choice. Although San Diego is located in America, and the majority of the population speaks English, you’d think that Lozano would opt to write this in his native tongue. Most social media websites have translation functions, so any non-Spanish speaker would be able to get the message. But Lozano didn’t write this at all. He prompted it.
On Thursday, Varas said that Lozano is “100% committed to making his way back into the group.” He can’t even be 100% committed to writing his own apology.
San Diego (19-6-9, 63 points, 1W/4S) spent the entire season with zero pressure. As an expansion team, they weren’t expected to compete immediately. However, all of that pressure has been thrust upon them in an instant. As the top seed in the Western Conference, they have to deliver in their first voyage into the MLS playoffs. That run could end at any time, but advancing to the Conference Semifinals is the bare minimum expectation.
SDFC Injury Report & Projected Starting XI
All three of the confirmed absentees are right backs. Sisniega is the backup goalkeeper.
When you beat a team 4-0 and immediately turn around to face them one week later, it’s a safe probability that you’ll stick with the same lineup that delivered a resounding victory. The only change is Duru, who will probably slot in at right back due to the sudden lack of depth in that area. However, Varas could opt to put Bombino at right back (like he did in the first meeting between these teams) and Franco Negri at left back. That’s the only change that I’m predicting, especially as Lozano works to earn back his teammates’ trust.
The Timbers Report
The Portland Timbers (11-11-12, 44 points, 8W/17S) do not have the lofty expectations that come with a higher seed. They have the lowest hosting priority of every MLS team remaining in the playoffs. When Game 2 of this series is played on November 1st, it will be the final home game of Portland’s season. A victory tomorrow would provide the Timbers with a good chance of extending their season. So let’s take a look at Portland’s results in 2025 away from home and see if they provide a helpful road map towards a deep playoff run.
Road Form
Portland’s road record is 4-5-8, which ranks 20th in the entire league. However, only three teams (RSL, New York, and Atlanta) scored fewer away goals than the Timbers (16). Ironically, only three teams (Minnesota, Vancouver, and Philadelphia) conceded fewer away goals than the Timbers (22).
That’s utterly fascinating. Their defense was good enough to remain competitive in their road games, but the attack kept them from turning draws into wins and losses into draws. They lost 4 of those 17 road games by multiple goals.
It tells the story of Portland’s road form: competitive, but lacking the ability to win. However, all games in this First Round series go directly to penalty kicks after 90 minutes. Portland’s penchant for keeping road games close works in their favor for this series. Their previous road meeting with San Diego finished in a scoreless draw with an offside Dreyer goal being ruled out and one of the worst on-field penalty decisions getting reversed. It was the first game for the Summer Three as well.
PTFC Injury Report & Projected Starting XI
Rojas has been ruled out for the second consecutive game. The only member of the Summer Three that will see the field tomorrow is Kristoffer Velde. Dang it.
It’s hard to dislodge any of the starters from Wednesday. Diego Chara might be the exception, but he will see the field tomorrow in some capacity. This is a big game for Antony, while Velde and Da Costa get some more time to gain some chemistry in the positions that Phil Neville has always wanted them to occupy. Mora’s midweek brace gets him another start up top.
Tactical Preview
The Long Ball
There is only one tactical thing to talk about for this game: the long ball.
It’s no secret that the Timbers struggle to play against a high press. This has been a continual issue for years. The 2025 Timbers are at their best when they’re attacking with speed. In order to replicate the same conditions that lead to success, the long ball becomes crucial.
Portland’s long-ball completion percentage is 59.6%; good enough for 7th-best in the league. They’ve completed the 7th-most long balls in the league. San Diego is going to try and press the Timbers into oblivion and bait the Timbers into mistakes like they did a week ago. Instead of trying to conquer the obstacle, Portland should bypass it entirely.
In a road game, booting the ball long and trying to play for the second ball is a chaotic but safer approach to build-up. Portland needs to focus on keeping the ball in San Diego’s half instead of trying to progress it through the press. Los Plasticos can move the ball at will and can move from defense to attack in an instant. The Timbers’ methodical buildup will, in all likelihood, lead to more mistakes and more punishment. There isn’t a flaw in switching the modus operandi of ball progression. Adapting to the opposition can win this game for Portland.
Matchday Info
Announcer Analytics
English: Keith Costigan & Maurice Edu
Spanish: Jorge Perez-Navarro & Marcelo Balboa
Home radio broadcast from 750 The Game: not available on Apple TV
Broadcast platform: FREE on MLS Season Pass on Apple TV
Kickoff time: 6:30 PM PST
Referee Report
Chris Penso’s 2025 stats: 19 games, 22.89 fouls/game, 0.26 penalties/game, 4.11 yellows/game, 0.16 reds/game
Last Timbers game officiated: September 27, 2025 vs. FCD 2-2 D
Series History
Historical record: 0-1-1, -4 goal differential
Road record: 0-1-0, 0 goal differential
Current streak: 2 winless
Current road streak: 1 unbeaten
Playoff record: first meeting
Bracket Time
Nothing has changed in the bracket. Congratulations to the Chicago Fire for advancing to the First Round. Game 1 of Miami-Nashville was played on Friday night, with the Herons opening the official postseason with a 3-1 victory. Goal differential doesn’t matter, so any form of Nashville victory in Game 2 would force a winner-take-all Game 3 in Fort Lauderdale.
Final Whistle
Tomorrow’s game could be about revenge. But the Timbers will be treating it as a matter of survival.
Because penalties will instantly commence after a draw at full time, the Timbers don’t have an impetus to take the game to San Diego like they did last weekend. They can defend and play dinosaur soccer towards a result.
That’s the beauty of being a low seed and going against a heavyweight. The Portland Timbers are playing with house money (no Chauncey) and don’t have a serious need to up the risk factor. By definition, the entire squad has more playoff experience than San Diego simply by playing on Wednesday.
St. Louis won the West in 2023 and entered the playoffs as the top seed. However, a series of poor results and a lack of serious competition send them struggling across the regular-season finish line. Their lack of experience and flawed game model saw them crash out in the first round at the hands of their biggest rivals. That’s pretty funny. However, San Diego’s game model is much more secure and the Raviolis did not have a Dreyer on that 2023 team. The Timbers are the only opponent that San Diego will have to play twice due to this ridiculous playoff format. That gives the Timbers another advantage.
With nothing to lose but pride, the Timbers are ready to begin their true playoff journey. They can be the ultimate spoilers or get dispatched by the higher seed. For this game, there’s only one question that needs to be answered: how much momentum did they take from the Wild Card win? The answer to that question will decide the fate of Game 1. The voyage continues.
