MLS Cup Playoffs Round 1 Game 3: San Diego-Portland Timbers Preview (11/9)
The Portland Timbers were buried. Down 2-1 in stoppage time of Game 2, they needed a miracle to keep their season alive. However, with the last kick of the game, Gage Guerra rose up above a crowd of San Diego players to head home a priceless equalizer. 3 errant penalty kicks gave way to Antony, who slotted a game-winning attempt into the bottom left-hand corner of the net. They’re alive. But they’re not safe. One more game can end their season or extend it: Game 3.
The San Diego Report
This might shock you. San Diego’s record (19-6-9, 63 points, 1W/4S) is still the same. They’re still the top seed in the Western Conference. One month straight of a San Diego game on the weekend. Lordy.
The first news item of the week concerns CJ Dos Santos. After taking an (inadvertent) boot to the face in Game 2, he was officially diagnosed with a fractured cheekbone. Backup Pablo Sisniega will be in line to make his first start since August 1st against Tigres.
Hirving Lozano made his return to the squad in Game 2, and scored a go-ahead goal within minutes of subbing on. Will Mikey Varas start the supposed center-piece player in Game 3, or will he use him as an impact sub like he did in Game 2?
I wish there was more to talk about. But San Diego have gotten to this spot by playing with the same principles throughout the entire season. Expecting a massive tactical change is ridiculous. San Diego will continue to be San Diego.
SD Injury Report & Projected Starting XI
Dos Santos has been added to the injury report. No other changes from Games 1 and 2.
Why change anything? Pellegrino has been a killer since coming into the team at left wing. Lozano was outstanding as a supersub in Game 2. I think it’s easier not to overthink it.
The Timbers Report
A second lease on life feels so good for the Portland Timbers (11-11-12, 44 points, 8W/17S). For their hard effort, they’ve earned the right to play San Diego for the 4th time in 5 games. In a weird twist of fate, those four games will be equally split between home and away. Providence Park’s contributions to 2025 ended with a bang last weekend, so the road forward will take place on, uh, the road.
Road Form
The Timbers still haven’t won away from home since July 25th at LAFC. However, their road goal differential since that game (7 total matches) is -5.
Dallas beat them 2-0 on August 9th. That’s the only loss by multiple goals in that stretch. The Timbers did a good job of being competitive in every other road game, but their inability to convert chances and protect leads routinely turned wins into draws and draws into losses.
This is where the beauty of this playoff format comes into play. Since every draw goes directly to a shootout, the Timbers don’t necessarily have to win in regulation. However, they’ll definitely be hoping for a win in normal time instead of the penalty kick crapshoot.
Portland’s baseline competitiveness away from home in recent months will be put to the test in this winner-take-all Game 3. San Diego’s middling home record (7-5-5) is another factor. As long as the Timbers aim to compete, this game could go either way.
PTFC Injury Report & Projected Starting XI
Fernandez is the only addition, and I wonder how serious that illness is. Matias Rojas is cleared to play for the second week in a row.
They have to keep the same structure. Personnel becomes a little trickier as a result. I think this is a game for Paredes. Ayala’s performance levels have been dipping in recent weeks, and Paredes provides the energy needed to make the press work. Miller was outstanding in Game 2, and I think that performance warrants another start. Kelsy should lead the line again given how well he played as an outlet in Game 2.
Tactical Preview
The First Goal
Let’s take a look at every game since Leagues Cup in terms of who scored first.
PTFC scores first (home): 3-1-0
PTFC scores first (away): 0-2-0
PTFC concedes first (home): 0-0-2
PTFC concedes first (away): 0-0-4
That’s a small sample size, but it confirms one thing: Portland conceding first (home or away) is pretty much a guaranteed loss. This is a trend that has carried through the entire season. Portland has not been able to win a game away from home if they allow the first goal. Do you want to know the last time that the Timbers won a road game after conceding first?
March 9th, 2024. If you recall, Evander scored the Goal of the Season to beat NYCFC at Yankee Stadium. It was Phil Neville’s first road game as Portland’s head coach. Maybe we should go back further to see how rare this phenomenon is.
You’re not going to believe this, but you have to go back FOUR YEARS to find the next instance of the Timbers winning a road game after conceding first. Ironically enough, it was also against NYCFC. But this game also happened to be the quarterfinal of the MLS is Back Tournament. Therefore, this technically counts as a neutral field. Time to keep digging.
APRIL 27, 2019. Jonathan Osorio struck first for Toronto FC in the 20th minute, but Bill Tuiloma’s fierce volley equalized two minutes later. Jeremy Ebobisse scored the winner in the 70th minute.
The Portland Timbers have only won TWO away games in the entire 2020s after conceding the first goal. One of those was on a neutral field. So they’ve only been able to author ONE comeback victory away from home in this decade.
In order for the Timbers to have a chance in this game, they need to score the first goal. It’s a trend that has held firm throughout the past five years. But that does beg the question: how will they try to score first?
A Repeat Performance?
Game 2 could be defined by Guerra’s equalizer or the penalty shootout. However, the Timbers completely revamped the way they defended San Diego. By aggressively pressing man-to-man, San Diego was in absolute fits during the first half. When Portland’s desperation became palpable in the second half, San Diego was barely able to break out of their own box. Sure, Los Plasticos were still able to score twice, but Portland effectively established themselves as the team in control with and without the ball.
There is no other way for the Timbers to approach Game 3. They have to use the intense and aggressive press to create havoc and unsettle the hosts. It is very risky to try this strategy away from home, but the success it brought them in Game 2 makes it impossible for them to win Game 3 without it.
This also ties into scoring the first goal. By being aggressive off the ball, they can attack a somewhat disorganized defense when they win it back. They should put all their energy into the press and use that press to create the chances to score first.
Chippy
Fun fact: Kristoffer Velde is very good at riling up opposing players. Sometimes this can get him in trouble. It only takes 3 yellow cards for a one-game suspension in the playoffs. Velde has two in two games, so he’s going to need to find the proper balance between fire and ice during this game.
San Diego is well aware of this fact, and their primary objective (besides scoring goals, of course) will be to frustrate the dynamic Norwegian at every opportunity. Anibal Godoy was able to bait Jimer Fory into a booking in Game 1, and Game 2’s physicality was there from the opening whistle. This is going to be a physical game, and whichever team can respond to the chippiness with composure will have a better chance of winning.
Matchday Info
Broadcast Bulletin
English: Keith Costigan & Maurice Edu
Spanish: Jorge Perez-Navarro & Marcelo Balboa
Home radio broadcast from 750 The Game: NOT available on Apple TV
Broadcast platform: FREE on MLS Season Pass on Apple TV
Kickoff time: 6 PM PST
Referee Report
Joe Dickerson’s 2025 stats: 13 games, 27.54 fouls/game, 0.23 penalties/game, 4.23 yellows/game, 0.15 reds/game
Last Timbers game officiated: September 14, 2025 vs. NYRB 2-1 W
That September 14th game was the most recent match officiated by Dickerson. That’s almost a full 2-month break from being a center referee.
Series History
Historical record: 1-1-2, -5 goal differential
Road record: 0-1-1, -1 goal differential
Current streak: 1 win
Current road streak: 2 winless
Playoff record: 1-0-1, -1 goal differential
Bracket Time
LAFC and Vancouver finished their respective series’ off in two games. Congratulations to them. NYCFC won Game 3 against Charlotte and will face Philadelphia in the Conference Semis. Game 3 of Miami-Nashville happens tonight, while Hell is Real Game 3 is currently in progress. Jacen Russell-Rowe just scored a go-ahead goal for the Crew. Very cool.
But I’d like to draw your attention to the top left side of the bracket. Minnesota and Seattle just played an absolute classic of a playoff match. The Sounders scored twice in the opening 10 minutes, but Joaquin Pereyra scored a beauty of a free kick to bring the game back to 2-1 in the 19th minute. Joseph Rosales decided to take matters into his own hands in the 41st minute by getting sent off after headbutting Jesus Ferreira. Heading into halftime, this appeared to be a clear-cut Seattle victory.
Then Minnesota scored twice on set pieces to take the lead. The mood was great! However, Jordan Morris’ 88th minute equalizer (shoutout to Gage Guerra) sent the game to penalty kicks.
This penalty shootout deserves an entire recap, but that’s not my job to write it. Here are the highlights. Pereyra began the shootout by missing the target entirely, but substitute goalkeeper Andrew Thomas dislocated his left pinky on the dive. For the rest of the shootout, Minnesota only aimed their penalties to Thomas’ right. At that moment, with their entire season on the line, they decided to finally be ethical. Morris sent the game to penalties with his late equalizer but put his penalty kick off the crossbar to level the shootout. Congratulations to him. Every other taker scored their kick until the game was in sudden death.
Thomas saved Anthony Markanich’s penalty in Round 7, which sent Obed Vargas to the spot to win the game for Seattle. He did the Jorginho hop and promptly sent his penalty into the left post. Congratulations to him. Hassani Dotson, born in Federal Way, had his attempt saved by Thomas. For the second time in a row, Seattle had a chance to win the game. Osaze De Rosario stepped up, and his shot was saved by Dayne St. Clair. Bongokuhle Hlongwane and Alex Roldan made their kicks, and finally it was time for the goalkeepers to step up.
St. Clair beat Thomas, and the Seattle penalty wizard stepped up to send the shootout into the 11th round. But Thomas didn’t realize who he actually was. In this moment, he became Jon Kempin. His penalty thundered off the crossbar and Seattle’s season ended.
That was fun. Whoever wins tomorrow will face Minnesota in the next round.
Final Whistle
The Timbers aren’t the only Portland-based team that has a playoff game on Sunday. The Thorns will play the San Diego Wave at noon tomorrow. It’s a home game, and the schedule has worked out for all Portlanders to watch both games. That’s awesome.
Dario Zuparic said it best on Thursday: “Put some pressure on them. Make some chaos.”
Portland’s ethos in the playoffs is completely dependent on chaos. Throughout their entire history, the Timbers save their most jaw-dropping moments for when the lights shine brightest. San Diego has been vulnerable, and their lack of playoff experience is something that can’t be taught. It must be learned in real time. Can they learn from Game 2?
The Timbers are still playing with house money. The expectation for them in this game is to be competitive. Since Leagues Cup, they’ve been competitive in every road game. But they haven’t been able to win one. Previous editions of the playoff Timbers rose to the occasion away from home. The Timbers saved their most gut-wrenching playoff losses for their home turf. Now they have to embrace the underdog role and go all-out to end this series with their heads held high, no matter the result. The voyage continues.
