Picking Up Steam

*Cover photo credit to Craig Mitchelldyer/Portland Timbers.*

In their 16th game of the season, the Portland Timbers recorded their first clean sheet of the season. They also scored two goals! That’s 3 points against Austin FC at Q2 Stadium.

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After 10 minutes of feeling each other out, this game truly kicked off in the 13th minute. Sebastian Driussi carried the ball into the box and went down after a hard challenge from Diego Chara. Referee Victor Rivas pointed to the spot after a slight delay. It looked a lot like a dive, but after a quick VAR check the call stood. There wasn’t enough on replay to conclusively say that Driussi had taken a dive, but he did go down awfully easily. However, ball don’t lie. Driussi stepped up to take the penalty, but James Pantemis caught the spot-kick and held on. Portland didn’t immediately capitalize on their stroke of fortune. But Austin nearly took the lead again in the first minute of stoppage time. A cross into the box was unfortunately turned into Driussi’s path by Juan Mosquera, but Pantemis came up huge again by smothering the point-blank attempt. Portland countered, and Evander won a free kick in his range. The resulting shot was beautiful, and the Timbers took a 1-0 lead into halftime.

That 1-0 halftime lead was the third 1-0 halftime lead on the road that the Timbers have had in 2024. The previous two came in Columbus and Minnesota, and the Timbers dropped points in both. That didn’t happen tonight. Austin did try to create a couple of chances, but none of them amounted to anything. In the 64th minute, Evander played a through ball to Antony, and the winger won a penalty. Jonathan Rodriguez stepped up to the spot and smashed it home. 2-0. The Timbers were able to weather the storm to leave Texas with all three points and a clean sheet.

If you look at the stat sheet, this game is the definition of a smash-and-grab.

The first half was a slog before Evander’s miracle goal. For reference, that goal had a value of 0.03 xG and a xGOT value of 0.25. Portland’s attack was putrid in the first half, and they were struggling to connect with each other. I could use that same sentence several other times this year. These problems are nothing new. Both of Portland’s goals came off of dead-ball situations, and the Timbers only registered 0.66 xG from open play tonight. Those stats above are from the full game. Portland registered only 0.07 xG in the first half. Neither team was really dominant in the first 45, but the Timbers were utterly woeful around their box. Evander’s free kick was so much more than they deserved. But they took a lead into halftime, and it allowed them to control the second half.

Portland only registered 32% possession in the second half, but the onus was on the hosts to find the equalizer. After Rodriguez’s penalty found the back of the net, Portland could focus all of their effort on protecting the lead but also being able to counterattack. This led to Portland winning the xG battle in the second half. It was a very good defensive effort, and it was rewarded with a shutout. An excellent team performance. 2 goals, a clean sheet, and 3 passes into the Austin box.

This isn’t a stat to laugh at or be seriously worried about, but it’s very funny that the Timbers only had 3 passes into Austin’s box during this game. That’s what happens when counterattacks are Portland’s primary mode of attack. The Timbers only registered 12 touches in Austin’s box. If Portland hadn’t taken a two goal lead so early in the second half, these numbers would be higher. It speaks to Portland’s defensive effort more than a struggling attack. When they needed to be direct in the second half, they were. And they were able to salvage another turgid first half with a moment of Evander magic. Sometimes, these things just work out. And they certainly did tonight.

James Pantemis is about to start a lot of games, and Phil Neville gave him the start to build up match sharpness. Maxime Crepeau is about to leave for Copa America, and Pantemis had another solid showing in a spot start before he becomes the temporary starter. His performance is raising a difficult question, so I’m going to address it and get ahead of this debate before it gets way out of control.

“He saved a penalty (his first ever penalty save), made another spectacular save to keep the game tied and kept the clean sheet. Is he actually Portland’s number one?” In previous seasons, the Timbers have been screwed by the lack of a quality backup keeper. Pantemis is good enough to start, yes, but it’s entirely too early to begin calling for him to be the first-choice keeper. I’m a big fan of King Pants, and from what I’ve seen and heard he’s pretty OK with being the backup. He’s done an excellent job when he starts but that’s exactly what you want from your backup. This is what having a quality backup keeper looks like, and I guarantee that Crepeau is just as pleased that his understudy was able to get the Timbers’ first shutout of the year. Keep in mind that a massive save from Crepeau won the game for Portland last week. His seat isn’t under threat. Just enjoy Pantemis’ excellent performance tonight, and understand that Crepeau will get his first clean sheet eventually. We will be in excellent hands when our number one is away with the Canadian National Team. 

Juan Mosquera didn’t play the full game, but put in an excellent defensive effort before getting subbed off. It was the right move for several reasons. Eric Miller was able to come on and allow the team to get even more defensive. Plus Mosquera needed a rest due to the quick turnaround ahead of the Houston game this weekend. He has played a massive part in the defensive improvements. Even though he likes to roam forward, he’s done an excellent job of tracking back. He only played 59 minutes, but he can hold his head up high. 

Miguel Araujo and Dario Zuparic did an excellent job of dealing with all of the crosses sent in by Austin’s wide players. Neither of them lost an aerial duel. If Neville is intent on sticking with a back four once Copa America is over, it’s going to be very hard to dislodge Zuparic and Araujo from their spots. Araujo kept his first clean sheet as a Timber, and he has gotten better and better with each passing game. Zuparic’s return to the lineup has also been a massive improvement to the defense. Tonight was the culmination of something building for several weeks. Now they must keep doing it. 

Kamal Miller started at left back again and registered the 3rd-highest expected threat from passing on the team. His long balls resulted in several good chances in the second half that could have extended the lead. There is actually a serious conundrum regarding the left back position now, but it’s too early to have that debate. Let’s see what happens after the Houston game. Another great shift from Kamal, and he’s already establishing himself as a fan favorite. 

Let’s fucken goooo, indeed.

Diego Chara had to be on a minutes restriction tonight for rest purposes. But instead of bringing him on as a sub, he started the match. He had another classic Chara shift and got called for a foul on a clean tackle. But he did his job before exiting the game, and will be in the starting lineup against Houston. Neville has done a very good job of managing his minutes this year, and I expect this pattern of spot benchings to continue as the season wears on. 

If you weren’t on the David Ayala hype train before, I hope tonight convinced you. He didn’t shine in the same way he did against SKC, but he was once again excellent before getting subbed off in the 85th minute. Let’s take a look at his passing output. He completed 91% of his passes, including 7 out of his 8 attempted long balls. The Argentine finished second on the team with 8 passes into the final third. His defensive work was also outstanding, winning 7/11 duels. He also didn’t commit a single foul tonight. But wait, it gets better.

Good LORD he was everywhere. And wherever he went, good things happened. Although he didn’t register a full 90, he still played 85 minutes in the Texas heat with another game coming up in three days. He has to start every game that he can for the rest of the season. This team just isn’t the same without him on the field. “He was incredible in the central midfield,” Neville said post-game. He’s got the combination of confidence and fitness and now the entire league is at his mercy. 

Dairon Asprilla started on the right and had trouble with Austin left-back Guilherme Biro. Not a great showing from him tonight, but at least he put in a lot of effort. It’s really tough to be the top aerial threat on the team in the first half. 

This game was a tale of two halves for Antony. In the first half, he started on the left and looked lost. He was uncomfortable on the ball, misplaying passes, and wasn’t playing with confidence. Then the triple sub occurred in the 59th minute, and the Brazilian moved over to the right wing. It was like his poor first half didn't exist. Not only was he confident, but he was the most active threat for the remainder of the time he was on the field. This game solidified a nagging opinion I had about him: he’s a right winger and shouldn’t play on the left. If Neville is intent on sticking with a back four, he has to start either Rodriguez, Moreno, Asprilla, or Loria at left wing from this point forward. Antony should only be playing on the right. He drew the foul that led to Rodriguez’s penalty and played with his hair on fire once he moved over to the right. You cannot ignore the power of that shift. Keep him on the right.

Jonathan Rodriguez started as a striker, struggled to find service, then moved over to the left after Felipe Mora entered the game. On the left, he became the provider, not the finisher. He latched onto several long balls and sent a few tasty cutback balls into the box but no one was on hand to finish them. He did take the penalty instead of Evander, and now has 5g/1a in his past 7 matches. In a post-game interview with Apple TV, Phil Neville said that all Rodriguez needed to do was settle. Looks like he’s settled in pretty well. The goal involvements should keep coming.

Gonna do a quick blurb about Felipe Mora. He had two big chances that failed to find the back of the net after he entered the game. It’s nothing to worry about, but the margin of victory could have been a lot more comfortable. He’s still confident and scoring at a torrid rate, and he found the spots to score in this game. He’s going to be fine. 

I’m sure everyone had a different reaction to Evander’s free kick, but I just started laughing when that ball hit the back of the net. He’s been trying to score that exact goal since he got here, and he pulled it off when the team needed it the most. The game opened up for him in the second half, and he was at the heart of Portland’s counterattacking efforts. His humility shone through in the post-game press conference. “I just spun the ball around the wall,” he said about his free-kick. The Brazilian has played in 12 matches and tallied 7g/5a. That’s good enough to be in the MVP conversation. What does Evander think of his growing case to win MLS’ top individual honor? “I don’t want to talk about MVP. I just want to do the best for the team.” He doesn’t care about the spotlight. He let Rodriguez take the penalty tonight. His main focus is climbing the table, and performances like tonight are paramount to helping this team get back into the playoff picture. Speaking of the table, how does it look?

The Seattle Sounders will not stop innovating. Tonight, they hosted Real Salt Lake, and took the lead after Albert Rusnak caught Zac McMath off his line with a really good free-kick struck from some way out. Once again, they continue to innovate by copying the Timbers. I could describe what happened next, but the Sounder at Heart Twitter account tells the story far better than I ever could.

Because of the Sounders’ constant quest to push the boundaries of what can be accomplished on a soccer field, the Timbers have found themselves back in a playoff spot. And their next opponent is one place above them and ahead by only two points. Portland began this week in 11th, rose to 10th after beating SKC, and are now in 9th after beating Austin. If results go their way this weekend and they beat Houston, they could get as high as 7th. And tonight was a complete performance.

Neville began his post-game remarks by praising the entire team. “The players are now doing their job and doing their job to the abilities expect….Tonight you saw a team that from 1 to 20 was fully committed and I’m super, super proud of them all. This is a momentum league….This result means nothing if we don’t win on Saturday. We will enjoy this moment for the evening, but tomorrow we get back to work. There’s no resting on your laurels. We have to be ruthless.” 

For the first time in 2024, the Portland Timbers have won two consecutive games. In 2023, they didn’t win back-to-back games until September. That two game stretch started with a Saturday win at home against LAFC and then a Sunday win in Austin. I am delighted that the winning streak at Q2 is continuing. Neville is correct. In order for tonight’s win to really be a paragon of good things to come, the Timbers will have to win on Saturday against Houston. That’s no small task even though the Dynamo are struggling as of late. After a 2-month run that resembled a factory of sadness, there is a different cloud of steam rising from the Pacific Northwest. Every bit of every game has built up to tonight’s result. Now the Timbers have to consistently perform like this, and the rest of the Western Conference can be at their feet.

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