Portland Timbers-Austin FC Preview (5/6)

The Portland Timbers returned home following a statement 2-1 win over St. Louis. Their opponent this weekend is a struggling Austin FC team (7:38 PM, Apple TV) that is having trouble repeating the heroics of their stellar 2022 campaign.

It might be hard to conceive that this is only the third season of Austin FC’s existence. That’s because the momentum behind putting a team in Austin had been building for years. You might remember the #SaveTheCrew movement from 2018, when former Columbus Crew owner Anthony Precourt was ready to move the Crew to Austin following his purchase of the club. However, the fans revolted and Precourt was unable to complete the move. Since Precourt handed over operating control of the Crew franchise, the league granted him an expansion franchise in Austin. The team was scheduled to begin play in the 2021 season. The Verde and Black (just ugh, boring nickname) would go on to have a pretty bad opening season in MLS, but there was one thing that kept the league’s eyes transfixed on them: their shiny new stadium. And of course, with a new stadium opening, one team had to be the sacrificial lamb. Much like Cincinnati in 2019, the Timbers were Austin’s opponents in their inaugural home match. And in the same vein as that Cincinnati match, the Timbers got destroyed. Austin rebounded in 2022 with a massive turnaround, going from 31 points in 2021 to a massive 56 points and the second seed in the MLS Cup Playoffs. However, one opponent who they could not get the better of was the Portland Timbers, who swept the season series. This year, however, Austin has fallen right back to Earth. After an embarrassing (no disrespect to their opponents) exit in the CONCACAF Champions League Round of 16 to a Haitian club who hadn’t played a competitive match in months, they have been unable to recreate the magic they had in 2022. And believe me, it was literal magic. They outperformed on almost every attacking metric last year, and one player was absolutely crucial to that. If you didn’t have Hany Mukhtar as your 2022 MLS MVP, you probably voted for Sebastian Driussi. The Argentine was an absolute weapon and led Austin all the way to the Western Conference Final, where they got bounced by eventual champion LAFC. Heading into Saturday’s match, Portland has a 3-0-2 record against Austin, with a 2-0-0 record against them at Providence Park.

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Los Verdes (2-3-4, 9 points) haven’t won in MLS play since March 11. There is no single culprit for their freefall. Rather, it is both their attack and defense that is struggling in 2023. Their new striker Gyasi Zardes has been unable to find his role in the side, and Driussi isn’t covering up their regression by being the match-winner he was last year. But even with a stalled attack, they are in serious disarray at the back. The winter departure of Roman Gabrielsen left a massive hole in their backline. That spot was filled by newcomer Leo Vaisanen, but it’s not just Gabrielsen’s departure that has ruined their spine. A calf injury to the other starting CB Julio Cascante (yes, that one) has forced head coach Josh Wolff to play club captain Alex Ring in the backline rather than his preferred spot in center midfield. They aren’t the same team with Ring covering CB, and they don’t have another starting-quality option. Kipp Keller could be an option, but a bad mistake in the season opener has seemingly ruined any trust he had with Wolff. Some Austin fans aren’t the biggest fan of Wolff, but I think their ire should be directed at former sporting director Claudio Reyna. Besides being a vindictive asshole, Reyna did not build this squad properly and the heroics of both Driussi and GK Brad Stuver kept this team firmly in the “fool’s gold” category. With that in mind, let’s get to my predicted starting XI. The biggest injury note is Diego Fagundez, who will miss this match with a groin injury. Cascante should be back this week, however. 

I expect Cascante to make his return against his former team. Nick Lima and Jon Gallagher are among the better fullbacks in MLS, with Gallagher being a crucial part of their attack this year. Ring is now free to return to his natural position, and Daniel Pereira is pretty underrated around the league. Their front four has been underperforming all year, and Emiliano Rigoni is a big part of that. Driussi’s former teammate at Zenit has had a hard time adjusting to the league, and last weekend he finally scored his first Austin FC goal. Not what you want from a DP attacker. However, he did look more dangerous on the left vs. San Jose than he did on the right, where he played before Fagundez’s injury. I’ve already spoken at length about Driussi, and I would like to add number theory to explain his hard start to 2023. He wore the 7 for Los Verdes last year, but has been rather underwhelming after switching to the number 10. Not everyone can pull off the most famous jersey number in soccer, I guess. Rodney Redes was Austin FC’s first ever signee, and he will be playing on the right. This is not just Cascante’s homecoming, however. Cult hero striker Maximilliano Urruti will once again play in Providence Park, and it will once again not be for Portland. Since his departure from Portland, he has played for all the teams in Texas. Gyasi Zardes will be backing him up, as he has not proven himself a starter in Austin. This is Austin’s strongest lineup since their season opener, and Cascante is a huge reason for that. Even without Fagundez, their attack should look to build on their 2-goal outing last weekend against the Earthquakes. 

Don’t worry Timbers fans. April is over. A ridiculously tough previous month has now led into a May schedule that looks like a sight for sore eyes. This upcoming week will see Portland (3-2-5, 11 points) earn a much-needed homestand, with 3 games at Providence Park. And now with some serious positive momentum, the Timbers are set to begin a climb up the table. Unfortunately, the injuries just won’t stop coming. David Ayala is the latest player to land on the season-ending injury list after tearing his ACL in St. Louis. And in a familiar theme, the Timbers injury list continues to slowly shrink even with more players joining it. Sebastian Blanco, Yimmi Chara, and Claudio Bravo are off the list completely. The two players with questionable tags are David Bingham and Dairon Asprilla. The only player on the list without an injury designation is Zac McGraw, who will miss Saturday’s match serving a yellow card suspension.  With that in mind, here’s my predicted Timbers XI against Austin.

Yes, I put the Timbers in red this week because I don’t think we’ll be wearing green at home thanks to Austin FC’s Seattle-esque kit color terrorism. The lineup is pretty straightforward. Ivacic is Portland’s number 1, and even with a fully healthy Bingham he should start. Mabiala enters for the suspended McGraw, even though I would love to see Tyler Clegg get his opportunity. Clegg starting is unrealistic, given that he didn’t train with the first team this week. Eric Miller will be the backup fullback option. Paredes and Chara will be the double pivot for the rest of the season with Ayala’s injury, and the only true backup in those spots is Noel Caliskan. His availability for Saturday is unconfirmed, however. For the second week in a row, I will predict a Yimmi start. I do think Dairon sees the field on Saturday, just with a minutes restriction. Santiago Moreno is another locked in starter, and I’m happy to see he is finding his form again. My only concern with the XI is how many starters will be playing midweek against RSL. 

One person who I have no concerns with at all is Evander. There continues to be a lot of discourse surrounding him, and a lot of it is due to his price tag. First of all, price tag discourse is already very stupid. It’s not your money the club is spending on him, so why should you care? I beg MLS “pundits” to look at roster slots instead of a transfer fee. Evander and all other big money moves should be judged based on the roster spot they take up. In Evander’s case, he is a DP. Way too many people who obviously don’t watch the Portland Timbers have already labeled him as a bust. I have two things to say about that. First of all, he’s not Diego Valeri. We knew he wasn’t Diego Valeri, and yet everyone thinks he’s Diego Valeri and have put those massive expectations on his shoulder. Evander, however, is feeling no pressure at all. “I’m really happy,” he said in an interview at Tuesday’s training session. He also commented on how different MLS is from the Danish Superligaen. “It’s really open. There were more tactics and more organization [in Denmark]. When the game’s more open, there are more chances to score. I like that.” When you see him in training, there is an air of goofiness that surrounds him. He’s integrated himself into the team and with every passing match is more adjusted to the league. If anyone tells you he’s not good, confiscate their Ball Knowledge Card™ on sight. 

The other player who is still adjusting is Franck Boli. I had the opportunity to have a short chat with him on Tuesday, and he gave off the impression of a player who is both happy to be here and loves his teammates. “It’s [the transition between Hungary and Portland] been great. The guys here helped me, both on and off the field, but especially on the field. They’re really nice guys. They made it easy for me to be here. Some of them [my family] have moved here.” Keep in mind, he’s only played in one home match. I asked him about this upcoming homestand, and he’s happy to be back at home for a while. “I was really happy. Home games are fantastic, especially with home fans. I don’t have to travel. It’s perfect.” Keep in mind that before his move to Portland, he last played the full 90 on October 2nd. He’s still regaining that match sharpness, but he has continued to look better and better week after week. Like him, I feel optimistic about his time here. 

Tactically, the absence of Zac McGraw will be felt. “The way he has developed, the way he has grown into the player he is now, it’s taken a lot of work,” Giovanni Savarese said in Tuesday’s press conference. “He’s evolved in so many ways. It’s not only that he’s defending well. He’s playing well with the ball, he’s tactically always in the right space, he’s always blocking shots and helping the team be solid in the back. He’s done a phenomenal job. He’s one of the best center backs that we’ve seen this year.” High praise from the boss, and this team knows how crucial McGraw has been in 2023. I’ve already spoken at length about Larrys Mabiala, but at least he’s going to be paired with a partner in Zuparic who he has great chemistry with. Austin has been heavily reliant on crosses in 2023, and their attack has suffered due to an underperformance in finishing. Portland’s keys to victory are limiting set-piece opportunities and continuing to pepper the goal with shots. I would love to see the same intensity that I saw in St. Louis. This is also a good time to talk about Cristhian Paredes’ role in this team. Where Ayala played as a destroyer with a wicked passing range and Eryk Williamson was a creative force in the center of the park, Paredes is a box-to-box dynamo. He frequently makes late runs into the attacking third and has been a wonderful passer so far in 2023. His return to full health has given Portland’s midfield a dimension they were severely lacking in the first month and a half of the season. He has also been here since Savarese was hired in 2018, and knows the system inside and out. This match has the feeling of an Evander breakout game. Austin is absolutely shambolic in defense, and the free-roaming Brazilian will have every opportunity to create, shoot, and beat players off the dribble. His presence is also a gift for Yimmi Chara, who can finally return to the wing after playing as the 10 last year. Despite his injury, he has great chemistry with Juan Mosquera on the right. Jon Gallagher, Austin’s left back, loves to get forward, and is actually Austin’s top scorer with 3 goals. His forward runs will open up plenty of space for Juan and Yimmi to exploit. The Timbers should be relentless in their attack on Saturday, and shoot whenever they see a good opportunity.

Following Saturday, the Timbers face RSL in the Open Cup on Wednesday, with another league match Saturday 5/13 against Vancouver. Momentum is still very much in the Timbers’ favor, and they will be looking to punish another green team on Saturday night. 

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