Newsletter

Portland Timbers-Austin FC Preview (10/2)

Win and they're in.

There are only three games remaining in the regular season. After a 1-1 draw in Vancouver, the Timbers return home for their penultimate regular season game at Providence Park. Their opponent is a team that is also fighting for a playoff spot, but faces an uphill battle.

The Broccoli Report

Since entering the league in 2021, Austin FC’s nickname has been the “Verde-and-Black.” Considering their colors are green and black, it’s a logical albeit boring moniker. However, Austin’s crest prominently features a tree. This tree doesn’t look like a tree, rather a large piece of broccoli. That moniker makes more sense, because no one likes anything about Austin FC these days.

Cascadia FC's Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Let’s begin with the fans. At the beginning of the season, they were less than pleased with head coach Josh Wolff. Their 2022 overachievement had raised expectations, and ending 2023 5 points back of the playoffs was a pretty predictable step back. Austin continued to struggle for the start of the season, but a massive summer transfer window saw the arrival of DP winger Osman Bukari, fullback Mikkel Desler, and center back Oleksandr Svatok. Those signings were smart and they filled team needs. However, they haven’t exactly gelled on the pitch yet. Following last weekend’s result (a comeback 2-2 draw at home against RSL) supporter group Los Verdes posted a statement calling for the removal of the head coach. This may seem odd coming off of a massive comeback to keep the season alive, but the results leading up to it may have forced their hand. Especially after two players (Jon Gallagher and Dani Pereira) broke out in a shoving match after the final whistle. Star player and franchise centerpiece Sebastian Driussi has also been busy on Twitter as of late.

If you look at Driussi’s account in the present day, these tweets no longer appear. This happened a few weeks ago, but it doesn’t seem like anything has changed. Wolff doesn’t appear to have any control over the locker room, and the Broccoli haven’t been eliminated from playoff contention yet. But they are teetering on the edge, and with each passing day Wolff looks like more and more of a lame duck.

Since Austin (9-9-13, 36 points, 11W/21S) lost 2-0 at home to Portland on May 29th, their slide down the table has continued. Between that game and the Leagues Cup break, they only won 2 MLS games. However, they won the most difficult Leagues Cup group by beating both Pumas and Monterrey at home. It didn’t stop them from losing 2-0 at LAFC in the Round of 32 (another group winner that had to go on the road to begin the knockout stage) but that strong group stage showing could have set the table for a final sprint towards the playoffs. Their next game was a 2-0 win against a struggling Nashville team, and then the bottom fell out. The Broccoli are currently on a 5-match winless streak and have only scored 4 goals in that stretch. Their scoring issues are what’s really holding them back. Bukari hasn’t scored since the Nashville game. Driussi hasn’t scored a MLS goal since May 18th. This lack of offensive production has led to Austin scoring the 2nd-fewest goals in MLS (Nashville and New England are tied for the fewest in the league). Their attacking talent isn’t great, but it should be better than what they have produced. Jader Obrian is the club’s top scorer with 7 goals. Wolff’s system is predicated on crosses into the box. Austin has the 3rd-most crosses into the box per 90. This uninspired offensive play is coupled with an average defense. But their best player, by far, has been goalkeeper Brad Stuver. In terms of pure shot-stopping, he is one of the best goalkeepers in the league. His PSxG differential of +6.3 is 3rd-best in MLS, behind Charlotte’s Kristijan Kahlina and Houston’s Steve Clark. If it wasn’t for their elite goalkeeper, this team could have been in the race for the Wooden Spoon. Now they are fighting for their lives, and they have been awful on the road. 3-4-8 isn’t a great road record, but they’ve only scored 10 goals on the road in those 15 games. With their morale continuing to decline, it doesn’t look too likely that they will get the result they need in order to make the playoffs.

Only one name is on Austin’s injury report. Mikkel Desler is officially questionable with a “lower extremity” injury. I don’t know why they have to be so official, just say “toe.”

Rotation be damned. There simply isn’t any time left to worry about rotation when you’re desperately fighting for a playoff spot. Objectively, their best front four is Obrian, Bukari, Driussi, and Zardes. You could argue that Diego Rubio is a better player than Zardes, but Austin needs someone to get on the end of those crosses. Owen Wolff is obviously Josh Wolff’s son, and has actually been a bright spot on this team. The allegations of nepotism are still present, but Wolff is a good player in his own right. I don’t expect Desler to start, but he should be available off the bench. Biro and Gallagher are very good fullbacks and love to get forward. Former Timber Julio Cascante has been Austin’s best center back this season. This team is desperate, and they cannot afford to play it safe.

The Timbers Report

Whether or not you think that Saturday’s draw in Vancouver was a good result (I’m still trying to figure that out) you can’t deny that a point at BC Place is solid. The Timbers, suddenly, are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. They’ve only lost 1 of their past 6 MLS games since Leagues Cup ended. Now that only 3 regular season matches remain, the Timbers (12-9-10, 45 points, 9W/13S) will be battling their fellow Western Conference rivals for playoff positioning. But the most important thing is actually clinching. There are two scenarios that will clinch a playoff spot for the Portland Timbers tomorrow. The first one is the easiest: win and they’re in. Simple enough. If they draw, all they need is a Dallas loss in San Jose. The likeliest option is the Timbers simply beating Austin FC at home and ignoring the other results.

However, the Timbers should keep an eye on two other games tomorrow. Dallas comes to Providence Park on Sunday and would be eliminated if Portland wins and if Minnesota beats RSL at Rio Tinto. Even though the Loons and the Timbers are locked in a battle to escape the Wild Card Game, Minnesota has the advantage because wins are the first tiebreaker, not goal differential. The Loons occupy 8th place because they have 1 more win than Portland even though they’re level on points. A RSL victory would be the optimal result. The second game is Seattle’s trip to BC Place. Now, this may be controversial, but the Timbers need Vancouver to drop points more than the Sounders. This doesn’t just apply to the league table. After the Vancouver game, I stated that the best possible result for this game would be a Seattle victory by 1 or 2 goals. If that scenario does occur, the Timbers will be 1 point behind the Whitecaps in the Cascadia Cup table but will have a superior goal differential. Any result (tie or win) in Seattle on Decision Day would return the Cascadia Cup to Portland. Vancouver finishes the week by hosting Minnesota (lots of travel for the Loons) and then hosts LAFC during the international break to bring them level on games played heading into Decision Day. Currently, the Whitecaps are two points ahead of Portland in 7th. Avoiding the Wild Card Game should be Portland’s top priority. A Timbers win coupled with a Vancouver loss to the Sounders (hopefully by 1 or 2 goals) would catapult the Timbers to 7th place provided Minnesota doesn’t win in Salt Lake City. Portland is also 3 points back of 6th-placed Houston, but the Dynamo host the New England Revolution tomorrow. That is a game that I expect them to win. Basically, the Timbers could finish tomorrow in 7th if they beat Austin (likely outcome) and both Minnesota and Vancouver lose (also likely outcomes).

Playoff scenarios are one thing, but the Timbers need to be focused on winning games of soccer. Thankfully, they have a 12-match unbeaten streak at Providence Park dating back to May. When you can make your home stadium a fortress, it bodes well for the rest of the season. Portland is tied with LAFC for the 5th-best home record in MLS this year (9-4-2). Oddly enough, both teams have the same goal differential (+15) but the Timbers have scored 7 more goals. Making the playoffs won’t be a miracle, but getting the 4 seed would be. It is still mathematically possible for the Timbers to secure 4th place, but they would need a lot of help and it isn’t worth getting into yet.

Evander won the MLS Player of the Month for August and September (they combined the months because of the Leagues Cup break and the international break). It’s a big honor. Fanendo Adi is the only other Timber to win Player of the Month, and he did it in April 2016 after scoring 3 goals in 5 games. Evander won this award due to 4g/3a in 5 games. He is simply the form player in MLS, and it’s good to see him get some serious recognition for it. More serious recognition will be coming, but I’m waiting until after the Dallas game to present Evander’s case for MLS MVP (that’s what we like to call a teaser).

Mason Toye is still out with a back injury. Per Phil Neville, Toye isn’t expected to be back until Decision Day or later. David Ayala has been upgraded to questionable. He was a full participant in Tuesday’s training session.

*EDIT*: The Timbers are wearing their 3rd kits tomorrow.

Do I believe that Ayala is healthy enough to start? Yes. Do I believe that Ayala is healthy enough to play the entire game? No. Either way, putting the best XI on the field is the best way for Portland to start this game. Evander returns with full rest, and Bravo should be available to make his first start since the Seattle game on August 31st. This XI leaves the Timbers with plenty of different options off the bench. Miguel Araujo has continued to impress, but he can enter as either a 3rd CB or a RB depending on game state. It’s still imperative that the Timbers start their best CB partnership of Kamal Miller and Dario Zuparic. Antony can be a spark off the bench, and Tega Ikoba will likely see more game time in relief of Mora. Cristhian Paredes and Eryk Williamson are also great substitutes. Winning this game is of the utmost importance, and this lineup should be able to do it.

Tactical Preview

Inviting Pressure

This Austin team is putrid in possession. Allowing them to progress the ball into the middle third but then forcing turnovers and counterattacking into the open space in behind is a sound strategy. This match is an excellent time to focus on the Timbers’ defensive shape. With all the threat that Austin possess out wide, Portland can focus on maintaining a solid defensive structure but still getting forward in numbers at the right moments.

Getting a Clean Sheet

The Timbers have only kept 5 clean sheets in league play this season. Only one of those belongs to Maxime Crepeau. It is incredibly important for this team to record another one tomorrow. I would take a cagey game if it meant that the Timbers kept a clean sheet. There are no questions about this attack. They can outscore any team in the league (I don’t think that’s hyperbolic in the slightest) but they have to use these remaining league games to shore up the defense. Another clean sheet will go a long way.

Final Thoughts

Announcer Analytics

Max Bretos and Brian Dunseth will be on the call for tomorrow’s game in English. Raul Guzman and Diego Arrioja will be on the Spanish broadcast. Since it is a home game, there will be a radio broadcast available from 750 The Game. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 PM PST and the game is NOT FREE on Apple TV.

Referee Report

Alexis Da Silva will be the center referee tomorrow. This is the first Timbers game he has officiated in 2024.

2024 stats: 13 games, 22.38 fouls/game, 0.38 penalties/game, 3.23 yellows/game, 0.15 reds/game

Series History

Portland has a 5-1-2 record against Austin, including a 2-1-0 record against the Broccolis at Providence Park. They haven’t lost to Austin since a 3-1 defeat at Q2 Stadium on August 21st, 2021. Their unbeaten streak against the Broccolis sits at 6 games.

Table Time

Congratulations to the San Jose Earthquakes for clinching the Wooden Spoon. Sporting Kansas City and St. Louis have also been eliminated from playoff contention. The Galaxy still maintain a 6-point lead at the top, but LAFC has a game in hand. Only three teams (Portland, RSL, Seattle) have unbeaten streaks of at least 3 games. No one has really been able to build momentum in this time. The Timbers now have a runway to the playoffs with Austin and Dallas coming to town. Time to clinch a berth in the postseason and watch where the other dominoes fall.