Portland Timbers-Chicago Fire Preview (6/21)

Following a hard-fought draw in San Jose, the Portland Timbers return to Providence Park on Wednesday night to face the Chicago Fire (7:38 PM, Apple TV). The Timbers have never lost to the Fire (5-5-0 record in all previous meetings). For a club based in a soccer hub such as Chicago, that’s pretty pitiful.

You can forgive Chicago Fire fans if they didn’t want to travel to a suburb to watch their team play. I mean, you can’t really forgive them, but at least it’s a valid excuse. However, with the team moving back to Soldier Field in 2020, those seats should have been packed. In many ways, the modern Chicago Fire is a failure. Since MLS began its expansion known as MLS 2.0 in 2015, the Fire have lagged behind in all metrics. Attendance is down, and the team has been woeful as well. Bastian Schweinsteiger joined the Fire in 2017, and was asked in his first press conference if he could lead the Fire to triumph at the World Cup. Pretty on-brand for the franchise. Their latest “retirement league” venture was to bring in Xherdan Shaqiri from Lyon in 2022. On the face of it, Shaqiri’s signing isn’t bad. But they made him one of the highest paid players in MLS and he is not living up to that salary. What can save the Chicago Fire and bring them back to the glory days in the mid-2000s? Better investment is one solution, but there is still a disconnect between the team and the community they represent. I’m not a problem solver for the second issue, but it is sad to see a flagship franchise waste away while the sparkly new teams get all the attention. 

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Moving on to the 2023 iteration of the Fire, they are currently floundering. Interim manager Frank Klopas replaced Ezra Hendrickson following a 3-0 loss to Nashville on May 6th. Klopas debuted with two wins in a row over new rival St. Louis City but then took a nosedive. Since that second win over St. Louis on May 13, the Fire haven’t won a single league match. Their current 6 match winless streak can only be rivaled by Inter Miami, and there’s no Lionel Messi coming to the Windy City. Ageless Kei Kamara is the Fire’s top scorer with 4 goals, and youngster Brian Gutierrez leads the team with 3 assists.A 3-8-6 record is rather unflattering, because this team has had some good moments this year. They occupy MLS’s basement in terms of shots on target per match. In terms of xG conceded, they are 6th-lowest in the league. On June 10th, they played Columbus Crew at home. They conceded after an hour, but a suddenly revitalized Shaqiri equalized in the 88th minute. In a highlight you probably have all seen, Lucas Zelarayan scored from the middle of the pitch in stoppage time to give the Crew a crucial win. It was another “oh so close” moment from the Fire this year. Now they come into Portland with one goal: break the streak. 

Klopas has decided to use a 3-4-2-1 to maximize his best available players. Star winger Chris Mueller is out for the season with a hip injury, and center back Carlos Teran didn’t travel with the team. Here’s how I think Chicago will line up on Wednesday night.

In terms of strength, this is the strongest available Fire XI. The only thing that gives me pause is their trip to Kansas City next Saturday. Klopas might want to rotate, but SKC is surging. Maybe the Fire believe that this is the more winnable game with the Timbers also coming in on short rest. Teran’s projected return against SKC makes it almost certain that we will see the same backline that started against Columbus. I only made one change from that Columbus XI, and it was the insertion of Jairo Torres. Torres is the other DP on Chicago’s roster, and he has certainly underwhelmed in a Fire jersey. He’s mostly a substitute for Chicago now, but he could do a job for the team in a short week. Gutierrez and Shaqiri will play under Kamara, with Kacper Przybylko and Georgios Koutsias available off the bench for the front three. Fabian Herbers can also sub in for the midfield pivot, and Maren Haile-Selassie can relieve the wings. A strong Fire XI for Klopas in Portland.

The Timbers also have a streak going, but unlike Chicago’s it is one that they are trying to extend. Across the past three matches, Portland has kept three clean sheets. And given the strength of opponent, it is a very impressive feat. Seattle, Dallas, and San Jose all have some of the best attacks in the league, and Portland has shut them down in three consecutive matches. The Fire aren’t as strong up top, and the Timbers have been good at home. With 2 fewer home games so far in 2023, they have double the amount of points they have earned on the road. 14 points at home in 8 matches equates to a 4-2-2 record at Providence Park. Their goal differential at home is pretty nice as well (+5). However, their bad away record is really dampening their season. 1-4-5 is bad. Really bad. With two more home games coming this week (Chicago, NYCFC on Saturday) the Timbers will have played an equal amount of home and away matches in 2023. The combined record of 5-6-7 is currently good enough for 9th in the West, right on that playoff line. However, if the teams ahead of them drop points, the Timbers could see themselves in 4th or 5th place after the final whistle on Saturday night. But there is still a match to be played on Wednesday, and it could end up being a trap for a team on short rest. 

Much has been made of Zac McGraw’s heroics in 2023. He’s been so incredible for us that the Canadian national team called him up for the CONCACAF Gold Cup. Whenever a Timbers player is called up to the national team I’m both happy and a little sad. I’m obviously happy for the player. Getting to represent your country is a huge honor and for many players it is the pinnacle of their careers. However, we as fans will miss his steady presence and his partnership with “the best player in the league” Dario Zuparic (Dario’s words, according to Zac). McGraw will be available for Wednesday’s match. The only other question is Aljaz Ivacic. He got a call-up from the Slovenian national team following the June 3rd match in Seattle. He flew to Europe to play with his fellow countrymen. However, it didn’t go as Ivacic hoped. After being benched in their first match against Finland, he learned he wouldn’t be starting against Denmark. In a perfectly fine decision, he decided to leave the team and return to Portland. Many people might chalk this up to an attitude issue, but I’m 100% in Ivacic’s corner. Europe’s club season ended earlier this month. The entire Slovenian roster minus Ivacic plays in Europe, so their offseason began with this international window. Slovenia’s number one is Jan Oblak, widely considered one of the best keepers in the world. Oblak is injured, so this is the chance of a lifetime for any other Slovenian keeper to play for the national team. Ivacic left his club in the middle of the season to try and earn that spot. David Bingham ended up filling in for him on the Timbers, but Ivacic wanted that start for his country. When it became clear to him he wouldn’t get that opportunity, he went to rejoin his club. Perfectly fine. Why risk losing your starting spot when your own country is disrespecting you? Yes, he did get disrespected by Slovenia. Asking him to travel across the world to sit on the bench is incredibly disrespectful. Asking him to travel across the world to sit on the bench in the middle of his club’s season is incredibly disrespectful. He deserves our support, not questions about his attitude. Every keeper wants to start (Scott Carson is the exception, that man is the Chad Henne of soccer). With Ivacic returning the day before this Chicago match, it is unlikely he will be cleared to play just because of jet-lag alone. That’s 3 matches missed for the Timbers’ first-choice goalkeeper. Three matches he wouldn’ve started. Juan Mosquera’s time with the Colombian national team is different. At this stage in Mosquera’s career, it is very good for him to get time and experience with the national team. Even though Mosquera played 0 minutes in either of Colombia’s two friendlies, it is painfully obvious that Juan’s ability will soon necessitate a transfer to a better league for him to reach his full potential as a soccer player. Getting that experience with the Colombian national team is fantastic for his growth. He’s still only 20. He’s still getting better. McGraw’s call up is wonderful because of his own rapid rise from West Point to representing Canada (no matter how funny it is that a graduate of the U.S. Military Academy will be playing for Canada, and it is unbelievably funny). We will miss Zac’s presence in Portland while he is away, but I think I can say for all of us how proud we are of him. 

In terms of immediate availability for Wednesday, I’ve already touched on McGraw, Ivacic, and Mosquera. There are no yellow card suspensions for Portland, and Pablo Bonilla has been cleared to play following his hamstring injury. In terms of the next Timbers player to become available, signs are pointing towards Felipe Mora. Not only has Mora been a full participant in the most recent practices, Giovanni Savarese estimates that he could return on Saturday against NYCFC at the earliest (my heart literally cannot take it, this team just continues to destroy my emotions). Since Saturday is not Wednesday, it is safe to assume that Mora will not be available tomorrow. This makes Portland’s lineup pretty easy to predict, once again.

First choice as always for the Timbers. A backline that has contributed to 3 consecutive clean sheets shouldn’t be trifled with. The Paredes-Chara pivot has been incredible as well. Both Dairon Asprilla and Santiago Moreno have been underwhelming, but there’s no one pushing them on the depth chart so they will start again out wide. Evander will play under Franck Boli, and that’s that. Pretty straightforward. 

The most important thing the Timbers need to do is score early. With such a quick turnaround between games Portland needs to put this one away as quickly as they can. Given how good the attack has looked at home, there is a serious possibility that Portland could be up multiple goals entering halftime. The key to this is an aggressive high press. With the press acting as a facilitator to win the ball in dangerous areas, the chances will come quicker with each successful high turnover. After the Timbers do get their early goal (they will score in the first half in this match) the substitutes need to be utilized. Paredes and Chara are interesting cases in this regard. Both of them are absolutely undroppable in terms of their form, but fitness needs to be a concern for Savarese. Noel Caliskan is still awaiting his MLS debut, and this match is the perfect time to achieve that milestone. In terms of attacking subs, Franck Boli will almost certainly exit for Jaroslaw Niezgoda at about the 70th minute. Sebastian Blanco could enter for either Evander or one of the wingers. An interesting tweak could be a back five look with Marvin Loria as a wingback and Larrys Mabiala entering as the 3rd center back. I’m not going to speculate any more on possible subs, but they need to come. In terms of the attack, I’m more concerned with finishing than I am with chance creation. With Evander settling into his role and driving the attack into the box, those finishes need to be top tier. Against San Jose, they were not there. Against Dallas, they were unlucky as Marten Paes kept the scoreline respectable for the visitors. I’m confident in a multi-goal outing from the Timbers tomorrow.

Callum Williams will be on the mic for Apple. Nice to hear him when he’s not commentating a Minnesota game. Momentum is a term that has been thrown around a lot this year. The Timbers have been unable to develop any momentum because they still haven’t won two consecutive matches this season. The rest of this week looks like a gold mine. Both Chicago and NYCFC have been woeful as of late, and both of these matches could be a perfect springboard into a strong streak before the Leagues Cup break. Of course, the goals still might be absent and the Timbers will continue to disappoint. Both doors are open, but the chance for the long-awaited change in momentum has arrived. Time to seize it.

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