Portland Timbers-Colorado Rapids Preview (Leagues Cup Edition) (8/1)

It’s time for the second game of the Leagues Cup Group Stage. After a massive 2-1 win against Club Leon last Sunday, the Portland Timbers will host the Colorado Rapids on Thursday night to try and clinch a spot in the Knockout Stage.

The Rapids Report

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These two teams opened the season against each other. While wearing a jersey with a sponsor that has been long vanquished into the ether, Portland opened the Phil Neville era with a resounding 4-1 victory. It was also Colorado’s first game with Chris Armas in charge, and it seemed like the Rapids were heading towards another typical season of mediocrity. However, the Rapids’ excellent winter transfer window and team-wide buy-in have seen them shoot up the standings. When the season paused for Leagues Cup, the Rapids occupied the 4th spot in the Western Conference. The vibes are great in Commerce City. In their last game before the break, the Rapids beat RSL and lifted the Rocky Mountain Cup for the fourth time in the last 14 seasons. It has been a wonderful season so far for Colorado, and national pundits are beginning to notice that this team is establishing itself as one of the best in the West. However, there is one major asterisk in Colorado’s season and it warrants further attention. 

The 2024 Colorado Rapids have scored 50 goals in 26 games. That averages out to 1.9 goals per game, which is the 6th-highest mark in the league. That number seems to imply that the Rapids have an excellent attack, right? 

Only half of their goals have come from open play. This includes a whopping 8 penalties. That is by far the most penalties scored in the league this year, but it isn’t the full story. The Colorado Rapids have been awarded 12 penalty kicks in 2024 so far. That’s almost one penalty kick every two games. Add in 4 own goals and 11 set piece goals and the Rapids’ attack suddenly doesn’t look so hot. This is also compounded with their leaky defense. The Timbers already put 4 (3 and an own goal) past Colorado this season, and the Rapids’ defensive record is almost as bad as Portland’s. However, the underlying numbers do not agree with this assessment of Colorado’s defense. Only one player on their team has gotten indicted by the data. His name is Zack Steffen, one of the top acquisitions during the winter. He made his Rapids debut in Portland, had a complete shocker, and hasn’t really recovered from that awful start. Only one other goalkeeper has a worse PSxG differential than Steffen’s -7.3 in 2024. That goalkeeper is, humorously, William Yarbrough. The same William Yarbrough who started for the Rapids in 2023. Colorado ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of npxG conceded, but Steffen’s goalkeeping has been more of a liability than an asset. 

Djordje Mihailovic is at the Olympics, and Kevin Cabral is out for an extended period of time.

Mihailovic’s absence clears the way for Ronan to start at the 10. It will be either him or Bassett at the position while the other one pairs Larraz in the pivot. The back five is settled. Lewis had a great game against RSL while Harris is competing with Omir Fernandez to start on the right. I think Harris gets the nod tomorrow. Navarro leads the team with 11 goals, but 4 of them have come from the penalty spot. This team likes to press, and they are far from pushovers, even with their best player at the Olympics.

The Timbers Report

Zac McGraw rose up twice and scored both of Portland’s goals in their win against Leon. It isn’t that often that a center back scores a brace, but there is one other player on the roster who has done it before. And tomorrow, that player will suit up for the last time as a Portland Timber.

Larrys Mabiala did it in 2018 in a game at Lumen Field. Since his arrival in 2017, the French defender has played the 6th-most minutes out of any Timber in the MLS era and has started the 6th-most games. Mabiala is the all-time leading goalscorer for Timbers defenders with 11. And those goals often came at the most crucial times. From the opener in the MLS is Back Final, to the two goals in the 2021 playoffs, and his most recent goal against LAFC last season, Mabiala has always been a player built for the big moments. The defender has chosen to step away from the team after a difficult last couple of seasons, and I wish him all the best in his quest to enjoy soccer as a fan. He will surely see the field tomorrow and he deserves a massive ovation for his seven years of excellent play for the Timbers. Farewell to a legendary center back.

The Timbers have no availability concerns for tomorrow. The entire roster trained in full this week. But this is a short week, and there could be some rotation. Especially when the head coach has a bounty of different options at each position.

One quick housekeeping note: tomorrow is the home debut of the new third kit. Although this could be their final Leagues Cup game, Phil Neville has the opportunity to try some new things. All the Timbers have to do is avoid a loss tomorrow. So they can get a little creative with their starting lineup. Crepeau should start again, and it’s hard to drop the guy who had a brace last time out. Bravo and Mosquera should be back in the starting lineup after making supersub appearances against Leon. Antony has played two games against the Colorado Rapids and has scored 3 goals in those games. Start him again. This is also a pretty good opportunity to give Toye his first start as a Portland Timber. But I am most intrigued to see who gets the starts in the double pivot. Ayala was a monster off the bench against Leon. I expect to see him start for the first time since the Nashville game. He has started alongside Diego Chara and Cristhian Paredes so far this season, but he has never started a game with Williamson. Tomorrow’s match is a perfect opportunity to test out that potential partnership. Either way, I don’t think I predicted the correct lineup, and the coaching staff could try any possible combination of players tomorrow.

Tactical Preview

Organization

For the rest of the season, I could pretty much put the same two points in every tactical preview. The first is set piece defense, but that’s the lesser worry for this match. This game will be won or lost in the midfield, and particularly on second balls. Armas has drilled this Colorado team to press high and consistently win the ball in the opponent’s half. Portland has struggled to progress the ball in those scenarios, but if they can effectively do it against the Rapids they should be able to control the game. But you can never rule out a quick goal on a counterattack from the visitors. In order to combat that possibility, the Timbers need to press and defend as a team. This Rapids team thrives on creating chaos and taking advantage of vacated space. If the Timbers can consistently defend as a unit, it could bode well for the remainder of both their MLS campaign and their Leagues Cup voyage. 

Final Thoughts

Tomorrow’s game is only available on Apple TV, and kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 PM. Portland has a historical record of 14-7-10 against the Rapids, including an 11-2-2 record at Providence Park.

All Portland needs to book a ticket into the next round is any sort of result. Anything except a loss will get them into the knockout stage. But the knockout stage is rather messy, and the Timbers are probably going to get an unfavorable draw.

The only group that the Timbers need to pay attention to is West 3.

St. Louis already beat FC Dallas in the first game. Dallas plays Mexican team FC Juarez tonight. Assuming that the Timbers win the game tomorrow (either on penalties or in regulation) they will clinch the top spot in the group. That would match them up with whoever finishes second in West 3. Now here’s where things get tricky. Hosting priorities for the knockout stage are determined by the 2023 Supporter’s Shield standings. Both STL and Dallas finished higher than Portland last season, so they would host in the next round. Juarez, however, is a Mexican team and would have to travel to Providence Park. So there’s a pretty easy path to root for: beat Colorado in whatever fashion tomorrow, and root for Juarez to finish second. That can be accomplished with a Juarez victory against Dallas and a loss to STL. 

Do the Timbers need to win tomorrow? Not really, but they need to get a result. Based on their performance against Leon, this team could challenge for the trophy. But this Colorado team is very good, and the Timbers are the ones facing them on short rest. Any momentum is good momentum. The quest continues.

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