Portland Timbers-Colorado Rapids Preview (10/17)

Five games remain for the Portland Timbers to cement their playoff credentials. And for the second match in a row, they’re facing the team that’s just above them in the Western Conference standings: the Colorado Rapids.

The Rapids Report

The Timbers pulled up to Colorado on February 28th for their first road game of the season. They left with the first 2-0 loss in their variety pack. Colorado scored an early goal (7th minute, to be precise) before a set-piece goal in the 53rd minute solidified the result. It was a great early win for the Rapids and new head coach Matt Wells. What has happened since then?

The Rapids parlayed that 2-0 win into a 5-game run alternating between wins and losses. A 4-1 win against the Galaxy turned into a 3-1 loss at Yankee Stadium followed by a 4-1 win in Kansas City then a 3-2 loss in Toronto (featuring three red cards) and concluding with a 6-2 win against Houston. That Houston victory would be their last victory in league play until May 13th. That doesn’t count the three Open Cup games (all at home against Omaha, Colorado Springs, and San Jose) that the Rapids were able to win prior to the close of the Apertura. Excluding those Open Cup wins, the Rapids won 1 of their last 8 league games entering the World Cup break.

They spent that World Cup break in 11th place in the West. Their season resumed with a streak of 6 consecutive shutout home wins (while failing to win all four of their road games in that span). But before we can get to the rest of the season, we have to acknowledge their transfer business.

First of all, a healthy CONGRATULATIONS is in order for Stan Kroenke, who added the Los Angeles Angels to his sports ownership portfolio. He has a lot of money to spend on all of his other teams, but the scoreboard at Dick’s Sporting Goods Park is still in need of a replacement. However, he was able to divert significant funds to Colorado’s roster over the summer. How did that become a reality?

By doing a fair amount of squad reshuffling! The chief departure here is Herrington, who joined Premier League Hull City (still a weird sentence to type) for a club-record departure fee. He also became the most expensive defender sale in MLS history, exceeding the previous mark that was held by another former Colorado defender (Moise Bombito). Ronan, a former Dingle, got his return to Europe after a weird spell in Colorado as a Jack Price replacement who couldn’t do a lot of Jack Price things except hit a set piece pretty well. The Dante Sealy experiment lasted a full 8 months before he returned to Montreal. Navarro, a player who divided opinion in Colorado, became the new cashfer record with his $13M sale to St. Louis. That resulted in a fair amount of squad holes, so the Rapids got to work patching them up.

Some of these replacements were already at the club when the corresponding transactions occurred. Williams, a center back, was earmarked to be the Herrington replacement and joined on a pre-contract transfer from Granada. Minoungou and Thompson were both added before the primary transfer window closed. Maziz became the first signing of the summer. Then Rapids fans had to wait nearly a month for the next player to walk in the door. Abu Farkhi was the Navarro replacement, while Sadiq was signed as winger depth. Whittaker was the prize acquisition, joining on a DP deal from Middlesbrough to finally provide Colorado with a DP winger. Akon was signed on a similar deal to Herrington. He’s not old enough to make the move yet, but he’ll arrive at the club in the winter.

So how have these new additions transformed the Colorado Rapids (11-5-13, 38 points, 9W/15S)? Well, like the Timbers, they’ve only won 1 game since the start of September. That was a 1-0 win at home against Montreal. Otherwise, they’ve lost 3-0 in Columbus, drawn 1-1 in Austin, and tied 3-3 against Seattle (which would’ve been a 3-2 win if Caden Clark didn’t steal an equalizer at the death). A 3-2 loss in Carson followed, and their last two games have been home draws against San Jose and Minnesota. That Minnesota game was rather interesting, because an all-time howler of an own goal by Williams tied the game in the 83rd minute.

But in the biggest game of their season, the Rapids came up completely short. They hosted St. Louis in the Open Cup semifinal and got thumped 3-0. Since that game, they’re 0-3-1 despite three of those games (all of the draws) taking place in Commerce City.

Colorado’s big weakness is their performance in road games. They have an impressive 9-3-3 record at home (good enough for 30 points) but that’s counterbalanced by a 2-2-10 record on the road (8 points). It’s a short week, and they don’t travel well. In addition, they’ve picked up a total of 6 red cards this season due to Wells’ aggressive style of play. That number is backed up by 70 yellow cards (2nd in the league) and an average of 14.6 fouls committed per game (also 2nd in the league). These Rapids do have an identity, but they haven’t been able to figure out how to make it travel. Whittaker has chipped in with 2 goals in 5 appearances, and Paxten Aaronson has been able to provide a respectable 7g/8a in 29 games. They’re surely wanting a little more from their DPs. But this is Year One of Wells’ tenure, and the Rapids are trying to balance their long-term and short-term goals in the midst of this roster turnover.

COL Injury Report & Projected Starting XI

Cannon has alternated between healthy and hurt throughout the season. Ku-DiPietro also falls into that category. Maziz had a bright start but hasn’t played since September 9th. The Rapids are really missing him. Abu Farkhi got sent off while on international duty with Israel (he used the corner flag as a gun during a goal celebration, he insists that it was a pool cue) and has carried that red card form back into his club season. Congratulations to him. Hansen’s absence could be costly. He’s played pretty well since Steffen went down in May with a long-term shoulder injury.

I’m predicting some fullback rotation due to the midweek game. I think the majority of the starting lineup (especially the front six) should remain the same. Beaudry is the 3rd-string goalkeeper (they had to recall him from loan due to Hansen’s injury prone-ness and Steffen’s active injury) and I put him in here just in case Hansen can’t start. Phillip has taken Navarro’s role as the starting striker. That position could have gone to Yapi, but Wells likes to play him on the wing for some reason. Whittaker and Aaronson are Sharpied into the lineup. Frederick has been a useful midfielder. He got sent off in this fixture last season. Ojediran has been a solid winter signing. Players on the bench to watch include Georgi Minoungou (approaching “what does he even do” territory), Josh Atencio (also approaching “what does he even do” territory), Ibrahim Sadiq (occupying “what does he even do” territory simply because he’s only played in two games thus far, therefore rendering it impossible to judge what he can do), and young winger Alex Harris (who has been pushed down the pecking order). This Rapids team added some quality over the summer, and they’re still going to run their butts off. 

The Timbers Report

5 games left to close the 5 point gap between the Timbers and the two Wild Card teams ahead of them. Maybe a return home will be a welcome boost after three games on the road. “I don’t like away games in the MLS,” Kristoffer Velde said on Friday. “I like to play at Providence Park, and I hope many people will show up tomorrow. We still have chances, and we’re going to do all we can to show them that we’re capable of making the playoffs. And I think everybody agrees that that’s the target. Until it’s not possible anymore, we’re gonna give everything.”

The Stat Sheet

That’s an excellent transition into the next portion of this preview: another look at a Marti Cifuentes hand-delivered stat sheet.

The first side (game stats from Wednesday) largely match the eye test. But I found the back side much more interesting. Several key offensive and defensive metrics were compared to the initial stats from the “beginning of the season.” I’m assuming that’s referring to the pre-Cifuentes era. Those stats are further separated into two columns: the last 10 matches (all of Cifuentes’ MLS matches) and the last 10 matches without the clear outlier of the 1-1 draw against LAFC. I understand why Cifuentes separated the LAFC game here. It occurred at the end of the brutal run of 7 games in 22 days throughout August. That Timbers team was gassed, and that road point in Los Angeles was one of the best results of the Cifuentes era thus far. But the Timbers were utterly dominated, which does make the stats somewhat misleading despite the relatively positive result.

There are some attacking categories with barely any change. Possession, line-breaking passes, and goals scored register at a 3.2% improvement or less. However, shots and xG have taken some tangible steps forward, as well as box entries. Field tilt is the most striking change from pre-Marti to Marti.

The defense, ironically, is showing improvement in every category except for goals scored. Pantemis’ words about “not getting the right bounces” and “getting punished for every lapse” certainly carry a bit more weight when the data is brought out. The Timbers are not conceding as many box entries, and they’re also not conceding as many shots. Since they aren’t conceding as many shots, their xGA has been lower. Their pressures and counterpressures in the opposition half have also gone up. Their PPDA, however, is only showing a slight improvement.

The bottom pair of bar graphs highlight the counterattacking shots that the Timbers have conceded. They’ve lowered the amount of shots from fastbreaks by 18% (I did the math for myself on that one). However, is this set of numbers supposed to change the way that the team is perceived?

I’m viewing it as a sign of progress despite the downturn in results. It must be very frustrating to look at the improved defensive data and see the goals conceded go upward. However, it makes sense given the injuries along the backline. The attack hasn’t been seriously affected by the injury bug. There’s also the matter of game state playing into these stats too, particularly the attacking ones like field tilt. But I think Cifuentes is trying to vocalize one thing with this new set of numbers: “This squad is weaker now than it was when I arrived. And we’re still finding ways to improve even if the results aren’t matching.”

Is that a great thing for the head coach to (probably) be trying to communicate? I’m not sure. All I know is that I was already convinced about the team’s improvement while also feeling frustrated about the way these results have gone. Intangibles (alongside the need to avoid mistakes) need to be a key focus for the rest of the season if the Timbers want to make the playoffs.

PTFC Injury Report & Projected Starting XI

No changes to the injury report. Cifuentes said that Surman is “progressing well” but declined to give any specifics on his injury recovery. Antony and Cole Bassett will be in the team tomorrow after not featuring in Carson due to various ailments (knee issue for Antony, illness for Bassett).

It’s probably the easiest lineup projection of the season. If Bassett’s healthy, he’ll surely get the start against his former team. The rest of the lineup picks itself. 

Tactical Preview

Beating the Press

The Rapids’ identity travels on the road, which means that they will enter tomorrow's game with the intention of pressing high. The Timbers struggle against pressing sides, so buildup play is going to be a major factor in tomorrow's game. Will they sink or swim against a team that will try to press them into oblivion?

Set Pieces

The previous meeting between these teams was full of successful Rapids set piece routines. Wells employs the Arsenal tactic of setting up at the far post and attacking towards the near post. Surman's absence is going to show up on these plays tomorrow.

I think the Timbers would be best served by not giving away these dead-ball opportunities. They failed to do so back in February. Losing this game on set pieces would leave a very sour taste in everyone's mouths.

In addition, I'd like to see more success on attacking set pieces. Utilize near-post flick headers. Deliver dangerous balls into the box. The Timbers have the advantage by playing at home. Get the crowd going during corner kicks. 

Matchday Info

Broadcast Bulletin

English: Mark Rogondino & Heath Pearce

Spanish: Oscar Salazar

Home Radio Broadcast from 94.7 KNRK FM: available on Apple TV

Broadcast platform: Apple TV

Kickoff time: 7:30 PM PST

Referee Report

Elijio Arreguin’s 2026 stats: 12 games, 27.92 fouls/game, 0.17 penalties/game, 4.17 yellows/game, 0.17 reds/game

Record in Timbers games: 1-0-0, +1 goal differential, +1 foul differential, -1 yellow card differential, +1 red card differential

Last Timbers game officiated: July 25, 2026 vs. RSL 2-1 W

Arreguin’s performance in that RSL win (fondly remembered as Felipe Mora’s farewell game) was up to the standard. He correctly sent Morgan Guilavogui off after a VAR review was initiated. I’m interested to see how he handles a second Timbers game against a Rocky Mountain opponent.

Series History

Historical record: 17-7-12, +10 goal differential

Home record: 13-2-2, +24 goal differential

Current streak: 1 loss

Current home streak: 5 wins (6 unbeaten)

Portland utterly owns Colorado at Providence Park. That includes the only game the Timbers played with DaBella on their shirts. Those 5 straight home wins have come with a goal differential of +12.

Table Time

5 games remain to make up 5 points. LA Galaxy-San Diego is another six-pointer to keep an eye on. Seattle gets to host Montreal, while RSL travels to Kansas City. The Wizards cannot make the playoffs, so they’re trying to stay away from that Wooden Spoon. Vancouver and Houston play Austin and Minnesota, respectively. Next weekend, the Timbers host Charlotte. The Crown travels to red-hot Philadelphia tomorrow.

Final Whistle

As the rest of the Western Conference teams try to avoid making the playoffs, the Portland Timbers are suddenly faced with 3 out of their final 5 games at home. It’s been over a month since the Timbers played a home game. That most recent home game was the 1-0 loss to Atlanta. They’ve only been able to take 4 points from their last 4 home games, with two losses coming against the respective 14th-placed teams in the conference (a statement that was true when those games occurred and is still true today).

Tomorrow’s game is even more of a must-win than either of the must-win games that have already happened this week. A direct playoff rival, who is just as bad on the road as the Timbers are, is coming to Providence Park. I don’t think there’s much more to elaborate on. Those underlying numbers are telling one story. But the play on the field is not backing up that tale. Time to prove the data correct, and get a big win at home in the final stretch of the season with a playoff berth on the line. The climb continues.