Portland Timbers-Columbus Crew Preview (7/15)

The Timbers return to Providence Park on Saturday night to face the Columbus Crew (7:30 PM, Apple TV) for their only league match of July. There won’t just be a match, however.

Transformative players are scarce and incredibly hard to find. Especially in terms of soccer. A great goalkeeper can cover up deficiencies in a team, but can’t win games on his own. A truly special attacker is the only way to give your team a fighting chance. In 2013, two players in entirely different sports graced the Rose City with their presence. Damian Lillard was selected by the Trail Blazers with the 6th pick in the 2012 NBA Draft. He went on to claim the Rookie of the Year award in 2013. The Blazers knew they had an incredible player on their hands, but there was reason to be excited even if you weren’t a fan of them (unfortunately myself, the Brooklyn Nets can never stop letting me down). Lillard would go on to not just transform the team on the court, but in the community as well. He would go to different high schools in the Portland metro area and hold assemblies regarding anti-bullying. The Lillard Foundation continues to help teenagers in crisis. Just having one of those humans representing Portland would be a gift. It has now been two weeks since Lillard’s trade request became public knowledge. Even though I have no rooting interest in the Blazers, Portland is my home. The loss of a shining star in such a devastating way is unbelievably hard to stomach. However, for those of you who follow both teams, you’ve already felt this feeling before. 

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Some tragedies play out in front of our eyes and leave us in a state of disbelief. The penalty was forever etched in our minds long before Continental Tire decided to kill an entire market for their product (I will never forgive them and neither should you). It was a good attempt, but sometimes the keeper just makes a good save. That’s just what happens in soccer. The finest of margins prevent certain moments from fulfilling their would-be destiny. And on the other side of the coin, sometimes you are in control of everything. Steve Clark didn’t see him coming. No one in the stadium saw him coming. But he knew he could do it. He knew he had enough time to fully take his destiny into his own hands. And he knew that he was the perfect person to do it. For a player known for his brilliant right foot, the ironic nature of a slide tackle being the method of scoring is poetry by itself. And despite the heights of that tackle, and all the other moments of brilliance he performed while representing the Rose City, his last kick in green and gold will forever be that penalty. Sports are cruel.

Diego Valeri is the epitome of a Timber. Heroic on and off the field and beloved by everyone who comes in contact with him. If we’re just talking about the Timbers, he took the club from an expansion team with the best support in the league to a member of MLS’ elite. The league owes him a major favor as well. The first established South American star to come to MLS and achieve superstardom. Without his trail blazing (purposeful word choice), the likes of Miguel Almiron, Thiago Almada, and other non-Atlanta South Americans would still be pipe dreams. His footprint can be felt in America, too. After Noel Caliskan’s first team debut in the Open Cup, he mentioned Valeri as a reason why he was grateful to join Portland. It must’ve been an incredible moment for Noel when he was able to train with one of his idols today. On Saturday, ten years after his debut, he will take his rightful place in the Timbers’ Ring of Honor. 

His community work alone warrants inclusion halfway up the new expansion. I could list all of them, but the countless hours of his time he volunteered with the Stand Together program speaks for itself. He holds team records in goals and assists. His crowning individual moment came in 2017, when his 21 goals and 11 assists led to the league’s top award: MVP. Most Valeri Player, because there can only be one. Since he left the club in 2021, the spark has been missing. But his return this weekend couldn’t have been timed any better. 

The state of the Timbers’ season is no secret. Following a disappointing 2022, the wheels appear to have fallen off the wagon. Their 5-8-9 is bad. A goal differential of -8 is bad. A slow start to the season has not picked up at all in the summer. Now with extra internal strife via Santiago Moreno, a win has never been more needed. You could be a smartass and say “Well, what about playoff games? Or any match against the Sounders?” Those are already must-win, and we know the consequences of failing to get three points in those scenarios. That’s why this game falls into a special category: a Cancel game.

There’s a familiar theme with the New York Mets, and Family Guy brought it to the mainstream American viewing audience. In the clip, which is a cutaway gag, Stewie Griffin and other Mets fans await the first pitch of the baseball season. After the pitch is thrown, the PA announcer exclaims, “And the Mets’ season is over!” Being a Mets fan must be so easy. You already know you’re doomed from the opening pitch. MLS fans (besides the Rapids) are not familiar with this feeling because anything can happen in this league. But enough time has passed in the season, and now we can see who the true contenders are. With the expanded playoff field, it’s now even easier to get a chance to win MLS Cup. The Timbers are rapidly falling off the pace, but now they have an opportunity. If they can’t win, the MLS season might as well be canceled. That’s why this season’s story has led to Saturday night’s Cancel game. So who are the Timbers’ opponents for this hugely important fixture?

It was always going to be Columbus. The relationship between Columbus and Portland has been rather contentious across all sports. In 2015, both cities squared off in title games across two sports. Technically the University of Oregon isn’t located in Portland, but a large majority of the bandwagon fans they amassed in the late 2000s-early 2010s do call Portland home. (Yes, there are a lot of alumni in the Portland area, but the Ducks’ rise to the college football elite was great for anyone in Oregon who didn’t call Corvallis home at one point in their lives.) The inaugural College Football Playoff title game saw Cardale Jones, a man who went to school to not go to school, and Ezekiel Elliott’s Ohio State Buckeyes end the dreams of Heisman winner Marcus Mariota and a Ducks team who refused to wear green or yellow in the title game. It was their own hubris that got in the way. Columbus hosted MLS Cup in 2015, but this time it was the team from Portland who celebrated. To kick off the 2016 season, the Timbers raised their first MLS Cup banner in front of a sellout crowd. Their opponents? The team they beat to claim that title. You always remember your first. 

Columbus has since won MLS Cup, with their title in 2020 joining their 2008 trophy. They crushed Seattle in that final as well. Former Timbers heroes Caleb Porter and Darlington Nagbe were instrumental in that title team. No matter what, these two teams are intertwined. Porter took the Columbus job after leaving Portland, preferring to return to his native land of Ohio. His tenure in Columbus matched his time in Portland. Cup win in year 3, let go after year 5. Since 6 years have passed since Porter’s hire in Columbus, this means he’s no longer with the team. Wilfried Nancy worked wonders with Montreal last season and got hired by the Crew to take a talented team to the next level. So far, those results have been a bit mixed. They play beautiful soccer but are 5th in the Eastern Conference standings. 10-6-6 is a good record, and +13 is a good goal differential. A tougher start to the season showed the promise to this team, but as of late they are streaking. Quite literally, in fact, as their 8 match unbeaten streak shows. The biggest takeaway is their home and away splits. At home, they only have one loss and have picked up 27 points in 12 games. Away from home, they are 2-3-5. They lead the league in goals per match, with their first choice front three of Cucho Hernandez, Christian Ramirez, and Lucas Zelarayan combining for 35 goal involvements in 22 games. This is a dangerous team to go up against.

Some refreshing news from the weekend came via a Sergii Boiko masterclass. For those who are unfamiliar with that name, let me tell you that he’s now my favorite referee in MLS. He’s very bad at his job and everyone hates him. Because of that, he needs someone in his corner. I will bravely support Boiko in all his endeavors and pray that the league never assigns him a Portland match. His talents are too good to waste on a team like the Timbers. Our new golden boy referee gave out three red cards to the Crew last Saturday. Cucho received the first, although it was a second yellow. Two yellows make a red, so Cucho is now suspended for tomorrow’s match. Brilliant. That’s one huge difference-maker for the Crew unable to play. But Boiko wasn’t done. Who could be more important than a DP striker? How about the architect of the system? Nancy became the victim of Boiko’s silliness and was sent off as well. Now Columbus are down both their coach and their top striker. How will they be able to fill those two holes? 

Let’s start with the coaching hole. I think Crew assistant Yoann Damet will be the interim on Saturday night. Now that I’ve settled that conundrum, it’s time to look at the players on the field. 

Nancy loves the back three. So far, he’s done an excellent job of turning Porter’s 4-2-3-1 into a successful 3-4-2-1 (or 3-4-1-2). Cucho’s absence will allow Alexandru Matan to push higher up the pitch and join Zelarayan as an attacking midfielder. Aidan Morris was out last weekend but he should be back for this match. Mohamed Farsi and Yaw Yeboah are very good wingbacks, and both have been key for Columbus this season. This team has depth and has bought into Nancy’s system. They are a trophy contender. 

` The struggles of the Timbers are widely known at this point. Despite a solid defense, the goals have completely dried up. However, Giovanni Savarese is optimistic. Only two names remain on the injury report. Eryk Williamson and David Ayala have season-ending injuries, but everyone else is available for this weekend. When I was watching training today, it struck me just how many players were on the pitch. Savarese made a comment during today’s press conference about the full roster: “Now I can make decisions on who will make the 20!” With so many players back, it can be hard to find a good starting XI. Allow me to try to tackle that.

With health taken into account, this is how I think the Portland Timbers will line up Saturday night. Asprilla played 20 minutes off the bench in Colorado, so I think he’ll be healthy enough to play. It is a tossup between Marvin Loria and Yimmi Chara at right wing, but Gio will probably err on the side of caution with his DP Colombian. Evander returns to the lineup for the first time since the NYCFC match, and Zac McGraw will make his first start since the match against Chicago. There is still one major question I need to ask: is this the best XI? 

There are many factors that would prohibit this lineup from being the best one the Timbers could field. The first one is Santiago Moreno. I’m getting really tired of talking about this, but he basically lied in his press conference today. He said that he never asked to leave the club. In this article from The Oregonian, reporter Ryan Clarke confirmed text messages sent from Moreno read “I want to go,” and “I want to go out this summer.” Today, Moreno said that, and I quote, “Those words didn’t come out of my mouth.” The funny thing about text messages is that they are literally typed. So technically he wasn’t lying, but at the same time he definitely was lying. I still don’t think he leaves this summer, but it’s clear that this is definitely a contract dispute. General manager Ned Grabavoy was at Valeri’s press conference this morning, and he looked like a guy who just didn’t want to be there. 

Can’t say that I really blame you, Ned, but then again it’s part of the job description. If I fail to complete any aspect of my job, I get written up. Sometimes you just have to face the media and not say a single word with an expression that mirrors a man who is watching his dog throw up all over a nice rug. Sigh.

Moreno’s absence is one factor in the Timbers’ inability to field a best XI in this crucial match. My job is to predict what the coaches will do so I can give you the best perspective on what to expect from a match. However, now I have an agenda to push. It started from the second Miguel Araujo’s transfer to Portland was confirmed. Allow me to expand on the potential savior to the Timbers’ season.

Due to character limits in my lineup-builder application, I had to go with initials for a position I’m calling the second 10. Allow me to explain further. Araujo is the key to this entire formation. He played the exact same position with his previous club, and his traits as a ball carrier and progressive passer make him an upgrade on Bill Tuiloma. With three center backs, Claudio Bravo and Juan Mosquera can act as wingbacks; a position that is much better fitting for their skill sets. The central midfield remains unchanged, but the forward line looks a lot different. Rather than a single 10, the Timbers will now have twin tens. Evander can be the main creator, but the second 10 can press, make dangerous runs, slide out to the wing, and just be a constant force across the front line. The irony of this tactical change is not lost on me. We already have a player who profiles as a perfect option for that position. Unfortunately, with Santiago Moreno’s absence from the team this week, he’s probably already been told he can’t play on Saturday. Here’s where it gets interesting. Yimmi Chara and Sebastian Blanco already play as inverted wingers. It wouldn’t take much for them to find success in this new role. Dairon Asprilla is another choice here, but I think he would work better as part of a 2-striker system with Evander being the lone 10. Ditto for Felipe Mora. With this formation, and only this formation, the Timbers can get their best XI on the field. The defensive solidity wouldn’t be sacrificed, and the attack would be put in a better position to succeed. It is entirely on paper, but Gio needs to see that the past two years haven’t been working. When Valeri left, so did a consistent attack. Blanco can’t cover for Valeri like he did in 2020 or 2021, so this needs to be a complete shift. Whether or not Gio would pull the trigger remains to be seen, but I have already convinced myself this is the best way for the Timbers to operate if they want to achieve any success in 2023.

For my tactical preview, I’m going to focus on what I think Gio will do, not what I just proposed above. Sticking with the 4-2-3-1 does have its benefits, and Gio has been able to build a stout defense. Six of the Timbers’ last seven opponents have only managed to get 3 or less shots on target per match against them. That’s really impressive. Diego Chara and Cristhian Paredes have been instrumental in that regard, and limiting shots on target is the best way to limit conceded goals. However, I’m not too worried about the defense in this match. Portland’s problems continue to lie in the attack. I think Evander’s return is really going to help with that, but there’s another way the Timbers can win this game: set pieces. McGraw is an aerial monster, and Zuparic has found the back of the net as well this season. Evander’s deliveries will be key. I also think the Timbers need to focus on combo play rather than crosses in the final third. The most important thing they can do is pick passes through the Crew’s defense. The Crew are impressive offensively, but they are definitely penetrable when defending. Finding those combos will be more effective than just firing in crosses to short attackers. If those crosses are on the ground, they might have a better chance at succeeding. But odds are the Crew defenders will just rapidly clear them. The Timbers have been a better team in possession than they have been on the counter this season. Aside from the first Seattle game, they haven’t been able to figure out what to do in counterattacking situations. The solution is to bring an extra player forward and go direct. Those first passes in a counterattack are crucial, and they often go towards the wings to set up crosses. If the Timbers are going to score on a counterattack, they need to put themselves in the best position to get a shot on target. Going direct will help with that. All of the things I have mentioned above are focus points the team needs to iron out. If they can do that, they won’t just win this game, they could have a late-season resurgence.

With all the positive momentum from Valeri’s special night, the Timbers have to capitalize on it. If they don’t, the season might as well be canceled. Yes, there’s still Leagues Cup. But there are only two games in that tournament and both teams in the Timbers’ group are really good. If this team can’t figure it out, this can’t even be excused as a transition year anymore. Transition years still feature some memorable performances, and I can count the 2023 examples on one hand. This team is both so close and so far away from being good. If they can’t show up tomorrow night, we’ll have our answer.

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