Portland Timbers-Houston Dynamo Preview (10/21)

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Every major American sport has a special phrase to describe the opening of their season. Kickoff. Week Zero. Opening Day. Tip-Off. However, none of them have such a phrase for the final day of the season. Week 18 sounds stupid. Conference Championship weekend is a start, and Rivalry Week is pretty cool, but they don’t carry any gravitas. The final day of the NBA season is completely irrelevant. Baseball could go with “Closing Day,” but that sounds dumb and I regret bringing it into existence. Major League Soccer has a solution. They went right to the alliteration dictionary and coined the phrase “Decision Day.” After months of soccer, the Timbers’ playoff hopes will be decided on Saturday night (6:00 PM, Apple TV) at Providence Park. While the Timbers (11-10-12, 7th in West, 43 points) built their September unbeaten streak, their opponents were doing the exact same thing.

We last left the Houston Dynamo (13-9-11, 4th in West, 48 points) after they battered the Timbers 5-0 at home on August 20th. Prior to that, they had been eliminated in Leagues Cup after a hilarious Steve Clark error. No one was taking them seriously, but they came back from the break with a vengeance. Since that break ended, they are 7-4-1 in all competitions. That “all competitions” tag is very important, because they became the second MLS club to win a trophy in 2023 (third, if you count Vancouver’s Canadian Championship). On September 27, they lifted the US Open Cup in Miami following a dominant 2-1 victory. They used the Timbers as a springboard. Houston took that massive victory on August 20th and began a scorching run of form that won them a trophy and sealed a playoff spot and a tough draw to whoever stands in their way. 

What makes them such a difficult team? It’s actually their defense. Steve Clark (remember him?) has been a monster in the Houston goal this season, keeping 12 clean sheets. Micael and Erik Sviatchenko form an excellent center back tandem. The Dynamo are only conceding 1.1 goals per match, which is good enough for 4th in the league. For perspective, league-leaders Nashville are conceding 0.9 goals per match. Amine Bassi is their top scorer with 10, but 6 of those have been penalty kicks. He isn’t the most important player in orange. That honor belongs to Hector Herrera, who leads the team with 10 assists and is everything you could want in a DP midfielder. He attacks, defends, puts in quality set-piece deliveries, and is constantly coaching his teammates in the middle of games. Youngsters Coco Carasquilla and Nelson Quinones have been excellent out on the wings. There is a ton of talent on this team, and they’re playing some excellent soccer. 

Only two Dynamo players were on international duty. Goalkeeper Xavier Valdez joined his comrades with the Dominican Republic, and Carasquilla played for his native Panama. Head coach Ben Olsen told the media that Carasquilla exited his last match with Panama with a knock and is “day-to-day.” That could potentially be a huge loss for the Dynamo, as Carasquilla can play on the right wing and in the midfield and is vital to the Dynamo’s success. Outside of Carasquilla, there are no new injuries to report.

Today’s stupidest sentence of the week goes to this one I’m about to type: if Carasquilla is healthy enough to start, he will start. If he isn’t good enough to go, Paraguayan Ivan Franco will start on the right wing in his place. Corey Baird has been in red-hot form as of late, and he is this team’s starting striker until they sign a better one. Artur is incredibly underrated and provides solidity to the team’s defensive structure. Griffin Dorsey has come alive this season, scoring the opening goal in the Open Cup Final with a wonderful finish from a tight angle. Houston has the opportunity to climb higher in the table on Decision Day, so Ben Olsen has no reason to rest players. They’ve already had two weeks off, and his first XI should be ready to go aside from the Carasquilla-sized question mark on the right wing.

Two weeks off, and then a game against Houston. We’ve heard that before. Dynamo coach Ben Olsen understands that this won’t be the same Portland team that lost 5-0 on an oven-baked field in Texas two months ago. “It was 116 degrees when we played here and it’s never been 116 degrees in Portland,” Olsen said at his Thursday press conference. Not to be picky, but it has been 116 degrees in Portland before. As the climate continues to change, some weather events are becoming more and more common. The first is the atmospheric river. Atmospheric rivers are wonderful. The constant warm rain dumping for days is relaxing and refreshing. There are environmental side effects (such as flooding) but at least atmospheric rivers can be enjoyed by few. Of course, there is one weather event that no one likes. In 2021, a heat dome settled in above the Pacific Northwest and caused temperatures to skyrocket. It became hazardous to be outside during the day time. During that week in June 2021, the thermometer hit 116 degrees in Portland. Do your research, Ben Olsen. 

Moving on to the team with everything to play for, the Portland Timbers had a quiet but successful two week break. Five players were called up to their respective national teams and only four of them went. Cristhian Paredes was still injured and he stayed in Portland to get fit again. Bryan Acosta, Miguel Araujo, Juan David Mosquera, and Felipe Mora all traveled to join their compatriots. Only Acosta saw any match time. This allowed the Timbers who weren’t abroad time to recover, rest, and regain fitness. Zac McGraw needed these two weeks as much as Paredes did. Miles Joseph said they would both be available for Saturday. Excellent news. Evander and Diego Chara have also had time to build their fitness back up. This means that the Timbers will be fully healthy and ready for Decision Day. 

There is a ton of pressure on Miles Joseph to pick the correct starting lineup for this game. The easiest way for him to relieve some of that pressure is to not overthink it. McGraw, Paredes, Diego Chara, and Evander should be healthy enough to start. McGraw and Chara were both out for the previous meeting between these two teams, and you could see the impact that their absences had on the team. Felipe Mora should be back into the starting lineup, but if he’s feeling too jetlagged Franck Boli will start in his place. Santiago Moreno is undroppable, and he will be back out on the wing with Paredes and Chara back in the midfield. Right back is very interesting. Juan Mosquera has been poor defensively as of late, but his attacking contributions are crucial to the way the Timbers create chances. He was also on international duty for these past two weeks. Eric Miller is the safer option to start with the season on the line. With a fully healthy roster available aside from the SEI guys and Tega Ikoba (good luck at the Pan-American Games) there are plenty of options off the bench for Joseph to choose from. 

There are some other small storylines that I’ll briefly run through. Houston center back Erik Sviatchenko is Evander’s former teammate from FC Midtjylland. Evander had this to say about playing his former teammate: “Erik is such a nice guy and such a good teammate. It’s going to be a good battle between us.” (Evander is also enjoying the new NBA 2K, in case you wanted to know.) It’s also time for Steve Clark to return to Providence Park. In his last game here, Santiago Moreno put a penalty past him and scored a wonderful shot with his weaker left foot. Expect the “dodgy keeper” chants to be deafening. Most of this Dynamo hotstreak has been accomplished in Houston. Since the Leagues Cup break ended, the Dynamo are 2-2-1, with both wins coming in the Open Cup. They play like gods at home, but haven’t won away in the league since June 14th at LAFC. Their complete away record is 2-5-9 with a goal differential of -14. The Timbers are 9-3-4 at Providence Park in 2023 with a goal differential of +9. No matter how hot Houston is, they are not good on the road. 

In order for the Timbers to win this game, they need to score goals. In order to score those goals, they need to have the ball. I expect the Timbers to dominate the ball on Saturday. That’s the first thing that needs to happen. Felipe Mora continues to prove how valuable he is to the Timbers’ attack, and it’s not just through his timely goals. His hold-up play opens the field for the other Timbers attackers to get in behind and find space. Houston is solid defensively, so the Timbers need to pounce on their mistakes. This rule applies when the Dynamo have the ball as well. In the past two games, the Timbers have conceded 7 goals. Defending the Houston counterattacks will be crucial in this one. They allowed the Dynamo to rip them apart in transition back in August, so keeping their shape in transition will be extremely important. However, the Timbers have to be pushing for that first goal. Under Joseph the Timbers are undefeated (5-1-0) in games where they score the first goal. They’ve become quite adept at killing games off once they get in that position as well. With the opportunity to get revenge on Houston and book their spot in the playoffs, the Timbers cannot let their foot off the gas until the final whistle blows. 

Now we reach the critical question: how can the Timbers clinch a playoff spot on Saturday? 

This screenshot (courtesy of mlssoccer.com) shows the six possible ways that the Timbers can clinch a postseason berth. However, it doesn’t explain which position the Timbers can finish in. The Timbers cannot get higher than 7th, and each position between 7 and 9 has a completely different result for the next game the Timbers might play. If the Timbers finish in 7th, they will enter the playoffs in the new Best-of-3 round. The higher-seeded team hosts the first game and (if necessary) third game, while the lower-seeded team hosts the second game. The first team to two wins advances to the Conference Semifinals. If games are tied after 90 minutes, a penalty kick shootout will determine the winner. Every round after the Best-of-3 is single-elimination. The teams that finish 8th and 9th will participate in a single-elimination Wild Card match hosted by the team that finishes 8th. Ryan Clarke of The Oregonian did an excellent job of crunching the numbers to run all the possible scenarios for Saturday (link to his article here). If the Timbers win on Saturday, they will automatically get the 7th seed and face either LAFC or Seattle in the Best-of-3 round. However, like Clarke states in the articles opening line, the Timbers do not care about these scenarios.

Their goal is simple: win and they’re in. It’s the exact same situation they found themselves in on Decision Day 2022, except they failed to leave Salt Lake City with three points. Joseph pointed out a key difference between this year and last year: Decision Day 2023 takes place at Providence Park. With the home fans behind the team, the revenge factor, and the precariousness of the situation ahead of them, the team knows what they have to do. Joseph stated that “everyone is excited about this game….we don’t want to play in a wild card game.” Victory is the only thing on their minds, and in order to accomplish their goals they must execute in every phase of the game. For neutrals, this is going to be a fascinating watch. For both fanbases, there’s an anvil’s weight of stress. And for the players wearing green, there is only one goal on their minds: win and get in.

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Thanks for all your support throughout this season! Let’s go clinch a playoff spot!

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