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Portland Timbers-Houston Dynamo Preview (6/1)

Can the Timbers vanquish some demons and complete a 9-point week?

To close out a busy week, the Portland Timbers (5-4-7, 19 points, 9W/16S) are hosting the Houston Dynamo (6-3-6, 21 points, 8W/15S). These two teams have already met this year, and the Dynamo beat Portland 1-0 in Houston back on March 16th. What has been going on in H-Town since then?

The Dynamo Report

Since March 16th, Houston is 5-2-5 and has a goal differential of 0. In this period, they’ve only scored more than two goals in a game once. They also haven’t allowed more than two goals in any MLS game this season. Oddly enough, the only time that the Houston Dynamo has conceded more than two goals in a game was against Detroit City in the US Open Cup. Houston is a very good defensive team and a very bad attacking team, and the numbers back that up.

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Let’s begin with the offense, because the Houston Dynamo have developed an identity under Ben Olsen. They have the second-highest average possession in MLS, with only the Columbus Crew ahead of them. However, the Dynamo have the 8th-fewest NPxG and are tied with the second-fewest goals scored. They have the second-highest pass accuracy in the league but are unable to turn all of this possession into quality chances. Houston is unbelievably good at moving the ball around but the final ball is often missing. Teams who can form a compact defensive block can nullify the Dynamo. Their top attacking talent has been poor, and this team is really begging for a top striker. DP Sebas Ferreira is too injury-prone, and this team would be among the best in MLS if there was a great striker up top. Their top scorer is left winger Ibrahim Aliyu and he only has four goals. It’s such a huge weakness and as a result no team is suffering more from roster construction than Houston. As a result, most of their possession turns into possession without purpose. This team reached a Western Conference Final with Corey Baird up top last season, and they didn’t take the necessary steps to replace him. A massive gaffe from the front office.

Even though most of Houston’s time on the ball can be categorized as “possession without purpose,” being so ball-dominant really helps the defense. Although Houston ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of PSxG, their goalkeeping has been top-notch. In the 1-1 draw with Dallas, Steve Clark exited with a head injury in the 73rd minute. Using PSxG, the former Portland keeper was the 4th-best goalie in MLS this year; posting a mark of +4.8. Backup Andrew Tarbell has started the past two games, and he has posted a respectable mark of +0.7. Tarbell had the game of his life on Wednesday against Colorado. He saved a penalty (Djordje Mihailovic scored the rebound) and saved 10 more shots. Even though the Dynamo have a lot of possession, they have the best tackle completion percentage in the league. And once again, their best form of defense is prohibiting the opposition from having the ball.

Nelson Quinones and McKinze Gaines are both out. Steve Clark is questionable with a face (?????) injury.

Ferreira is off the injury report, and I believe that he will start this game. The second line of Aliyu, Bassi, and Carasquilla is pretty settled, and the same thing goes for the double pivot and backline. Even if Clark is fully healthy, Tarbell had an excellent game against Colorado, and I think he starts for the 3rd match in a row. This is a strong Houston lineup, but the bench is rather weak. Plus they are traveling to Portland on short rest.

The Timbers Report

Two wins in a week is pretty good. But the Portland Timbers have their eyes set on a loftier goal: the nine-point week. In every season post-2020, the Timbers have posted exactly one 9-point week. It took them until September to accomplish that feat last season. In 2022, they did it in late August. 2021’s 9-point week came in September as well. Phil Neville’s group can earn Portland’s earliest 9-point week since June 2015, when the Red Card Wedding was sandwiched between home wins against New England and Houston. But the Red Card Wedding was an Open Cup match and doesn’t count towards the MLS table, so if the Timbers can win tomorrow this will be their earliest 9-point week in the MLS era. The cliche is that the Timbers struggle to start seasons, and that is certainly true in 2024. But with such a golden opportunity ahead of them tomorrow, the Portland Timbers can continue their recent improvements and add something to the team’s record book.

The mood is certainly high at training. After arriving back from Austin on Thursday, the team was back to work on Friday. This is going to be the last match for Maxime Crepeau, Kamal Miller, and Miguel Araujo before they depart for Copa America. I had a chance to speak to the Peruvian center back on Friday, and he’s very proud to represent his country. However, he noted that his work isn’t done here yet, and would love to go into national team duty with a big win at home. On Wednesday, Araujo kept his first clean sheet with the team. Although he is a veteran player, it took him a bit to adjust to MLS. That’s perfectly normal. Now that he has adjusted to the league, he has become a key starter. Wednesday’s clean sheet was exactly what this club needed, now it’s up to them to win more games and keep the good vibes coming.

Marvin Loria and Larrys Mabiala are out. Santiago Moreno has come off the injury report. Tega Ikoba was back in training this week because he suffered a wrist injury on loan with Indy Eleven. He isn’t eligible to play in this game, but he has a timeline of 2-3 weeks before he returns to Indiana.

How many changes can you really make here? Miller and Araujo are both heading away for Copa America, and the only limit they will have is their own fitness. Even though Pantemis was excellent on Wednesday, Crepeau gets the start in his send-off match. Both Ayala and Chara were substituted on Wednesday and should be good to go. Mora returns to the starting XI and Moreno makes his first start since the win against San Jose. Claudio Bravo, Zac McGraw, Antony, Cristhian Paredes, Dairon Asprilla, and Eryk Williamson are all available in case some legs get too heavy. Portland has to go for it tomorrow no matter what.

Tactical Preview

Trackers

I expect Houston to have the vast majority of the ball tomorrow. That’s not a knock against the Timbers, but it’s what the Dynamo do best and they are the better team with a strong identity. So Portland’s defense will be tested and they need to be able to control the game without the ball. That will be a tough task against this Houston team.

Based on this chart, Houston has been able to dominate the midfield. But what really worries me is their domination of the wings in their own attacking third. One weakness I have noticed over and over again for Portland’s defense is the ability for opposing runners to make unmarked runs through the channels. It happens on both the left and the right, and sometimes it’s unclear who is supposed to be tracking those runners. Normally, the fullback on either wing is responsible for defending the ball-carrier, but it’s anyone’s guess who is tracking the space left behind the fullback in the box. Houston’s wings have been underperforming, but they are still very dangerous because they aren’t afraid to attack space. Portland will have to defend as a unit in order to nullify Houston’s ability to attack the box. Tracking those runners will be of the utmost importance.

The Counterattack

Controlling the midfield without the ball will also be paramount to a Timbers victory tomorrow. David Ayala and Diego Chara form the best double pivot on the roster, but they can’t do it alone. Evander will be tasked with more defensive work, and he has been up to the task when he needs to defend. By staying compact and sturdy, the Timbers can force turnovers. But they will need to attack with urgency. In the past couple of home games, Portland has struggled with urgency in the attack. Hopefully the confidence from the past couple of wins and the added motivation of beating Houston will drive them up the field on the counter. Jonathan Rodriguez wasn’t on the team yet when these two squads met back in March, but he will be a key outlet on the left side when Griffin Dorsey pushes up. I expect him to get involved early and often. If the Timbers can counterattack with urgency and confidence, this game should be theirs.

Final Thoughts

Announcer Analytics

Eric Krakauer and Jalil Anibaba are on the English broadcast. In Spanish, the announcers are Francisco X. Rivera and Diego Arrioja. This will be Rivera/Arrioja’s 6th Timbers game of the season, and their 3rd Timbers game in a row. Since it’s a home game, you can listen to the radio broadcast from 750 the Game on the Apple TV broadcast. This game is NOT FREE on Apple TV, and kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 PM Pacific time.

Referee Report

Guido Gonzales Jr. will be the center ref for tomorrow’s match.

2024 stats: 7 games, 23.14 fouls/game, 0.14 penalties/game, 4.29 yellows/game, 0 reds/game

Final Whistle

Even though the Houston Dynamo has won their last 3 matches against the Timbers, Portland is still ahead 10-8-9 historically. That record is buoyed by a 9-1-3 record against Houston at Providence Park. The sub-storyline is the battle between former FC Midtjylland teammates Erik Sviatchenko and Evander. The Brazilian still hasn’t beaten his former teammate, and he will be especially motivated to set the record straight tomorrow.

There is so much opportunity for the Timbers. Portland could climb as high as 7th if other results go their way and they take care of business. But taking care of business is the primary objective. It’s technically too early to care about the standings, but the recent climb of the Timbers has been very fun to watch. However, this game will be their biggest test of their defensive shape. Despite Houston’s roster deficiencies, they will be trying to find any weakness in Portland’s defense. They had the opportunity to beat this team last season on Decision Day to get into the playoffs and they failed. Time for revenge.