Portland Timbers-LA Galaxy Match Preview (3/25)

The Timbers are looking to end a 3-match losing streak at home against a familiar foe: the LA Galaxy. This will be the Timbers’ only early afternoon home kickoff until the season finale, so it is sure to be a packed house on Saturday (1:30 ((1:55)) PM PST, Apple TV/FOX). Rather than a clash of two Western Conference powerhouses, this looks like a massive pillow fight in which both teams are desperate to get a result. 

The LA Galaxy have had a tough year. They lost to their biggest rivals in the playoffs and then saw those rivals hoist MLS Cup. The Galaxy have the most cups in the league with 5. However, they are considered the Boston Celtics of MLS, with the most recent cup coming in 2014. They couldn’t break the Cascadia dominance of Western Conference titles, and their biggest rivals were the ones to break it. Naturally, this has left their fans very upset. As the signature legacy club in MLS, it is expected for the Galaxy to be in contention every year. MLS pundits rated this squad very highly in the preseason, yet I was unconvinced. I saw a team that had a dearth of attacking talent outside of MVP candidate Riqui Puig and young star Dejan Joveljic. My hunch has been proven correct through their first three games, picking up only 2 points and only scoring twice. The all-time series between Timbers and Galaxy is almost tied, with the Galaxy holding a 14-13-7 across all competitions. At home, the Timbers are 9-5-3 against LA. 

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The Galaxy still have injury problems, with Chicharito, Jonathan Bond, and Douglas Costa ruled out for Saturday. They also have three players on international duty: Joveljic, Kelvin Leerdam, and Eriq Zavaleta. An already-depleted roster is now even weaker. So how will the Galaxy line up in Portland? So far, they have used 4 at the back in both of their matches. Jonathan Klinsmann (yes, you know who is dad is) will start in goal, with Martin Caceres and Jalen Neal forming the CB partnership. New LB signing Calegari might get his first start on Saturday, with Raheem Edwards backing him up. Right back is where things get interesting, as there is no other true right back on the roster other than Leerdam. That might facilitate a switch to a back three, with Neal and Caceres partnered by Chris Mavinga. That might push Calegari into a wingback-type role. Three starters I can definitely Sharpie in are Puig, Marky Delgado, and Gaston Brugman. The midfield is the strength of this Galaxy side, and will be crucial if Galaxy fans are hoping for a result. Up top, things are definitely going to be weird. No Chicha and no Joveljic means that the Galaxy are without a true striker. This means one of Tyler Boyd, Efrain Alvarez, or maybe even Puig himself would play as a false nine. I think Boyd is the most likely, with Alvarez lining up on the right and Memo Rodriguez playing on the left. Make no mistake about it. This is a hungry, desperate team that is going to be gunning for three points.

The Timbers, on the other hand, are coming off their worst loss since a certain August 2021 match. The injury report is still long, with Felipe Mora, Sebastian Blanco, and Cristhian Paredes not even training this week. Yimmi Chara and Evander were training, but it was apart from the main group and they’re still listed as out. Dairon Asprilla and David Ayala participated with the team in drills, but Giovanni Savarese does not expect them to be match-ready for Saturday. Juan David Mosquera is healthy, but he is with the Colombian national team this week. 

That is a lot of missing players still for Portland. Mosquera not being available hurts, but playing for the national team is a great honor, so I’m happy for him. His absence in particular makes it very difficult to predict what formation we will see the Timbers line up in on Saturday. Aljaz Ivacic will start between the sticks, with Dario Zuparic and Zac McGraw in a CB pairing. Claudio Bravo will start at left back. The back five might still be in effect, which would bring Larrys Mabiala into the XI. If Savarese decides to go with a back four, Pablo Bonilla (or possibly new father Eric Miller) will fill in at right back. The back five is still the most possible outcome, which might push Santiago Moreno to wingback. Poor Santi has had to play all over the field so far with very little time at his preferred spot on the true wing. Eryk Williamson and real-life Ironman (congrats on 30k minutes) Diego Chara will serve as the midfield pivot. That will leave some combination of Nathan Fogaca, Jaroslaw Niezgoda, Marvin Loria, and Diego Gutierrez as the front three. It is unknown how the front three will line up, but if it’s a 5-2-3 Loria and Gutierrez will probably start out wide-ish with Fogaca up top. If the formation takes the shape of a 3-4-1-2 Gutierrez could be the 10 playing under Niezgoda and Fogaca. And of course, Bonilla could end up playing wingback with Moreno factoring more into the front three. All of this is, of course, speculative, with only a handful of players Sharpied on as starters. Keep an eye out for Tega Ikoba, who Savarese confirmed at Thursday's press conference will be seeing more game time as he works his way back from injury. He is slowly earning more and more minutes, but Savarese has made it clear his game time is purely dictated by his recovery plan. Plan on about 15-20 Tega minutes on Saturday. 

The keys to this game remain rather simple: don’t get caught in transition and don’t allow cheap goals on set pieces. The Timbers were ripped to shreds in Atlanta, but that can be attributed to a hostile environment and a team that is fully clicking. The Galaxy are not good. Finding a goal might be hard, but this team allowed 30 shots to Kansas City. Their man of the match in that game was the keeper Bond, but he’s not playing. In which case, the Timbers need to be attacking early and often. Shots on goal should be the number one thing the Timbers are playing for. If an angle exists, shoot. Nothing infuriates me more than a pass when a shot is available. Be as direct as you can and put balls on frame. The Timbers are at home once again, so use the momentum of your home turf to dominate. Three points now will go a long way. 

I cannot wait for this pillow fight. Oddly enough, the Timbers chose to wear the full rose kit (rose shirt, rose shorts) for this match. That left the Galaxy to go with their green change kit, which is very similar (eyebrow raise) to the celebrated Timbers 3rd kit from 2014-2015. I understand the urge to use the rose kit at home, but there is nothing wrong with rocking the plaid. The atmosphere will certainly be there on Saturday. My official prediction is a 2-1 Timbers win. Savarese has an uncanny ability to bounce back from horrific defeats, and I predict we take the three points at home. Galaxy fans will inevitably protest no matter the result, as their new life as the Boston Celtics is now the norm.

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