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Portland Timbers-LA Galaxy Preview (9/18)

A massive chance to set the record straight.

There is no time for the Timbers to lick their wounds after the loss in Colorado last weekend. The LA Galaxy are coming to town, and they are riding high.

The Galaxy Report

When these two teams met right before Leagues Cup began, the Galaxy handed Portland a 3-2 loss in Carson. They won their group but were forced to go on the road for their Round of 32 matchup. Their destination was Seattle, and two Sounders corner kicks gave the hosts a 2-0 lead before 10 minutes had passed. They were unable to recover, and their Leagues Cup campaign came to an abrupt end. However, before the MLS season resumed, the Galaxy made a big acquisition in the transfer market. Marco Reus, formerly of Borussia Dortmund, arrived in Los Angeles as a free transfer. And he made his presence felt in his Galaxy debut, scoring a goal and assisting one in a 2-0 victory over Atlanta. Prior to the international break, the Galaxy lost 2-1 in St. Louis. But it was the result in last weekend’s El Trafico that has Galaxy fans flying high. Despite going down 2-0 in the first half, the hosts rallied to equalize in the 55th minute before adding two more goals for a signature 4-2 victory against their biggest rivals. After losing the last 3 games to the traitors, this victory was cathartic as hell.

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Throughout the 2024 season, the Galaxy (16-7-6, 55 points, 1W/2S) have basically presented themselves as a better version of the Timbers. Both teams have the same strengths and the same weaknesses. On average, LA is scoring the 2nd-most goals per 90. The entire team is excellent with the ball, and Riqui Puig is the star in their solar system. Everything revolves around him. While they are elite in the attack, their defense is far below league-average. From open play, the Galaxy have conceded the 4th-most xG. However, per OPTA, they have conceded the second-fewest goals from open play. Poor finishing from their opponents factors into that, but the stellar play of goalkeeper John McCarthy is even more responsible for that drastic overperformance. Their biggest weakness is set pieces, as they are tied for 1st with 2 other teams with 12 total goals conceded on set pieces. On paper, there isn’t a massive difference between the Galaxy and the Timbers. But the Galaxy are a big-market team, and their top-end talent is better than Portland’s. Very few teams can sign Reus as a free agent on a team-friendly deal. Their attack is loaded. Gabriel Pec and Joseph Paintsil should get some Newcomer of the Year votes during award season. Dejan Joveljic has dealt with some injuries, but he scored a brace last weekend in the derby. Despite the short turnaround, the Galaxy have something in attack that the Timbers don’t: quality depth.

Edwin Cerrillo is suspended due to yellow card accumulation. Julian Aude and Martin Caceres are out due to injury.

The Galaxy will be forced to rotate their midfield due to Cerrillo’s suspension. Brugman and Delgado didn’t start last weekend, so both will be relatively fresh for this important road game. Paintsil hasn’t played since Leagues Cup, but he’s off the injury report and should be ready to start. Pec and Puig each played the full 90 against LAFC. Both players are too important to bench, but Marco Reus and Diego Fagundez are excellent options to bring off the bench. The Galaxy aren’t deep enough in defense to rotate, although Carlos Garces could start at center back. Momentum is definitely in the Galaxy’s favor.

The Timbers Report

After the Timbers failed to win in Colorado despite a positive performance, it seems like this team cannot figure out how to win on the road. Luckily, they’re back at Providence Park tomorrow. However, this team has one serious fatal flaw, and it’s time to delve into it.

Two things jump out from this graph (courtesy of @mlsstat on Twitter). The Timbers, on average, give up the 5th-most shots per game in the league. However, they rank in the middle of the pack in terms of xG per shot conceded, so they aren’t giving up a ton of excellent chances. These numbers largely match the eye test. But these numbers don’t automatically equate to a team that is conceding 1.64 goals per 90 (9th-worst in MLS).

OPTA has our answer. The Timbers (11-7-10, 40 points, 8W/12S) actually rank precisely in the middle in terms of xG conceded and goals conceded from open play. However, their set piece defense is absolutely catastrophic. Earlier, I said that the Galaxy were tied with 2 other teams for the most amount of set piece goals conceded. One of those teams is Portland. The Timbers’ inconsistency on set pieces could severely derail their season. And it’s not just initial balls. Let’s flash back to Portland’s 3-2 loss against LAFC back in late April. The Timbers were down 2-0 at halftime and fought back to tie the game in the 73rd minute. Three minutes later, Diego Chara was sent off. Portland was suddenly defending for their lives despite having all the momentum. Denis Bouanga’s eventual winner came from a poorly cleared corner kick. Every single facet of Portland’s set piece defending is far below standard. The Timbers fail in both aspects of set piece defense: organization and focus. That lack of organization can lead to free headers, like the one Dany Rosero scored on April 7th in Kansas City. And their inconsistent focus can lead to dropped points, like when Juan Mosquera didn’t stay with Rafael Navarro last Saturday and the Brazilian striker headed home the eventual winner. Portland’s biggest weaknesses from open play are shots from outside the box and counterattacks. After an excellent performance defending set pieces against Seattle, they dropped points because of a set piece concession in Colorado. It has to be better, especially at this point in the season.

Claudio Bravo has been upgraded to “questionable.” He participated in team workouts on Tuesday, but he didn’t train in full. One other thing to watch: yellow card warnings. Dario Zuparic is two games away from getting one removed, and Evander is three games away.

Because Bravo didn’t train in full, I don’t think he will be cleared to start. However, he should be able to come in off the bench. This back four had a solid outing against Colorado, so I don’t expect any changes. Mosquera has been the ironman for the Timbers in 2024; he has started every single MLS match. But there’s one other incredible stat from Mosquera’s 2024 season: he hasn’t been booked at all. The first-choice front four should be in from the get-go. The Timbers only have 3 more home matches. This is easily the hardest one.

Tactical Preview

Set Pieces

The Galaxy aren’t good at defending set pieces. The Timbers should try to bust out another near-post corner kick routine. Last time these two teams met, it came down to several late corner kicks that the Timbers were unable to capitalize on. Conversely, the Timbers are also dreadful at set piece defense. This game will come down to who can take advantage of dead-ball scenarios.

The Puig Problem

The Galaxy are going to want to dominate the ball. That means that Riqui Puig is target number one.

This is Puig’s heatmap from the first time these two teams met back in July. He constantly moves around off the ball and receives the ball everywhere in the midfield. In order to combat his presence while also being wary of LA’s other attackers, Portland’s structure has to be flawless. There are still moments where this team defends like a collection of individuals rather than a complete unit. Tomorrow’s game will be a huge test of their organization and ability to win 1v1 battles.

Final Thoughts

Announcer Analytics

Keith Costigan and Maurice Edu were on the call for the first meeting between these two teams back in July. They will also be announcing the reverse fixture. Sergio Ruiz and Walter Roque will be on the Spanish broadcast. Since it is a home game, the home radio broadcast from 750 The Game will be available. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 PM PST on Apple TV.

Referee Report

Timothy Ford will be the center referee for tomorrow’s game. The last Timbers game he officiated was the 3-2 victory against Minnesota earlier this year.

2024 stats: 11 games, 21.82 fouls/game, 0.64 penalties/game, 3.27 yellows/game, 0.27 reds/game

Series History

The Galaxy hold the all-time advantage over Portland with a record of 14-9-11. At Providence Park, the Timbers are 7-4-4 against LA.

Table Time

The Seattle Sounders took care of business against SKC on Sunday, and the Timbers now need a lot of help to escape 8th place. Oddly enough, every single team above them will play a non-playoff team tomorrow (aside from Vancouver and Houston, who play each other). Not a single result went Portland’s way this past weekend, and I don’t expect any of them to do so tomorrow. Here are the expectations I had after Leagues Cup ended, when the Timbers were in 8th place:

Top 4: excellent achievement

5-7: meeting expectations

8-9: disappointing

Missing the playoffs: failure

This team is simply too talented to finish below 7th place. I think that they have the talent to finish in the top 4, but it would have required a lot of help. I think Saturday’s loss in Colorado has made a top-4 finish incredibly unlikely. They need at least two games to make up the gap between themselves and 7th-place. The team shouldn’t be interested in this kind of speculation. All they can do is win the games that are in front of them. Their destiny isn’t in their own hands, but their ability to get results is.