Portland Timbers-LAFC Preview (4/13)

It feels good to be home. After two weeks away from Providence Park, the Portland Timbers (2-2-3, 8 points, 10W/18S) are back at home to face LAFC (3-1-3, 10 points, 5W/11S) on Saturday (1:45 PM, FOX/Apple TV). But before I can talk about the opposition, there is a brief bit of housekeeping to take care of.

Roster Changes?

According to The Athletic, the MLS Board of Governors have voted on a couple of new rule changes to be implemented this summer. I’m going to do a deeper dive on them for my Primary Transfer Window Review, so keep an eye out for that. The first change is the addition of 3 U22 Initiative players regardless of how many DPs you have. The second is an additional Guaranteed Contract buyout. The third is a flat cap for transfer revenue that gets converted into GAM. These changes will affect how the Timbers approach the Secondary (Summer) Transfer Window, but it isn’t worth getting into detail about now. Expect a bigger breakdown in a couple weeks.

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The LAFC Report

Since the Black-And-Gold were clamped and beaten 2-0 last September in Portland, they only lost one MLS game for the rest of the 2023 regular season. In the playoffs, they dispatched Vancouver in two games before holding the wall against Seattle in the Conference Semifinal. A routine 2-0 win against Houston saw LAFC hoist the Western Conference trophy for the second consecutive year. But their run ended in Columbus, and the former champs lost their title. Then came the exodus.

Giorgio Chiellini retired. Key contributors like Denil Maldonado and John McCarthy had their options declined. Maxime Crepeau, Kellyn Acosta, Carlos Vela, and Diego Palacios all left the club. Forwards Mario Gonzalez and Stipe Biuk departed on loan. So LAFC had a lot of spots to fill on their roster heading into 2024. Eduard Atuesta returned to the club on loan from Palmeiras. Highly-rated youngster Omar Campos joined from Santos Laguna. David Martinez, another highly-rated youngster, joined from Monagas. But the biggest name arrived in December. Hugo Lloris is a World Cup-winning goalkeeper and a club legend at Tottenham Hotspur. But he decided to join LAFC in the offseason. Two more players with MLS experience arrived a couple weeks ago. Kei Kamara and Maxime Chanot each made their LAFC debut in last week’s El Trafico. Without Vela, LAFC have lost their first club legend. But the core of both MLS Cup squads are still in LA.

Ryan Hollingshead is one of the most underappreciated players in MLS. Since joining LAFC he has been one of the best fullbacks in the league. Ilie Sanchez is a very good player to complement his side job as a commercial actor. Aaron Long was part of a center back rotation last season, but has earned the starting job alongside Jesus Murillo. Timothy Tillman has been a solid squad player. I haven’t bought into the hype for Cristian Olivera, but he’s still a dangerous winger. And the centerpiece is Denis Bouanga, the reigning Golden Boot winner. Despite their tumultuous offseason, LAFC have risen to 5th in the West. But that isn’t indicative of their strength, rather the battle royale that the Western Conference has become. 

Let me begin this by saying I’m not a hater. I’m just not convinced by this season’s edition of LAFC. Most of those concerns come from the attack. The numbers disagree with me, with LAFC having the third highest non-penalty xG/90 in the league. But those numbers don’t mean anything if no one can finish those chances. Their goals-NPxG is 3rd worst in MLS. While LAFC hasn’t been amazing in attack, they are incredibly dangerous on set pieces. They are tied for the most corner kicks attempted. Once again, the numbers disagree with me. LAFC are ranked second in MLS with 29.57 shot-creating actions per 90. But LAFC’s defense has been excellent. 30.3 tackles+interceptions per 90 is second in the league. They are also incredibly well-organized defensively. But so far in 2024, LAFC are 0-0-3 on the road with a goal differential of -6. It’s good that the Timbers will face this LAFC team at home this week before traveling to LA in two weeks.

David Martinez and Lorenzo Dellavalle are both out for tomorrow’s game due to injury. No other selection problems for the visitors.

I’m predicting a single change from last week’s win against the Galaxy. Omar Campos should return to the starting lineup after being benched for El Trafico. Ryan Hollingshead moves over to right back. The spine remains the same, with Lloris in goal and the partnership of Long and Murillo in front of him. No changes in the front six either. Kei Kamara and Tomas Angel are two attackers to watch off the bench. Sergi Palencia could start but I don’t think he will. Erik Duenas is the only true midfielder available on the bench, but Bogusz could drop into the midfield if/when Kamara enters. Not a lot of depth, but a very settled XI.

The Timbers Report

Following the dramatic resurrection in Kansas City, the Timbers are grateful to be back at home. Eric Miller was very happy to score his first MLS goal last week. “I got a lot of texts and a lot of people that were surprised that it was my first goal.” During this brief interview with the first-time goalscorer, assistant coach Liam Ridgewell repeatedly pelted the chain-link fence behind Miller with soccer balls. Despite a month-long winless streak, the team is still in good spirits.

David Ayala also gave a brief interview to the assembled media on Tuesday. “I’m very thankful to the coach and my teammates for the trust that they have in me.” He exited the game in the 53rd minute after feeling some cramps, but he’s recovered and ready for Saturday. Ayala believes that LAFC is one of the best teams in the league and Saturday’s game is going to be a good one. Since he recovered from his torn ACL, I’ve been raving about his ability. Neville singled him out after last week’s game as a star performer. In Thursday’s pre-match press conference, the head coach spoke about the competition for places in the midfield. “Ayala was brilliant last week. Diego Chara was great off the bench. Eryk Williamson and Cristhian Paredes have trained brilliantly this week. All four are starting-level players, and that’s a good selection headache to have.”

So far in 2024, the Timbers have recovered 4 points from losing positions. It would have been 5 if Allen Chapman had awarded the penalty on Jonathan Rodriguez late in Vancouver, but this is a very interesting trend especially given the patterns of the last two years. Last season, the Timbers only recovered 6 points from losing positions in the entirety of 2023. Those results included the 4-1 win against Seattle, the 1-1 draw in Dallas, the 3-3 draw in Carson, and the 2-2 draw in Seattle. In only one of those games (2-2 @SEA) the Timbers erased a deficit of multiple goals to recover a point. In the past two weeks, the Timbers have erased a multi-goal deficit twice. So there is tangible improvement in the team’s mentality, but it doesn’t erase the holes that the Timbers have dug themselves in the first place. Against Philadelphia, the Timbers had a very positive start. But they weren’t able to finish the chances that were created, and the visitors grabbed the lead on a corner kick. At home, the Timbers have good to excellent first halves but are subpar in the second frame. But on the road, the team comes out flat before turning on the switch in the second half. If Neville can figure out how to combine home first halves and road second halves he’ll get the complete 90-minute performance that him and all Timbers fans have been waiting for. 

Marvin Loria is still out. Zac McGraw hasn’t been cleared from concussion protocol and he will miss this game. Dario Zuparic will not play tomorrow for an undisclosed non-injury reason. Larrys Mabiala is off the injury report. 

There is a ton of competition for places in this team right now. I can only confidently predict Crepeau, Kamal Miller, Araujo, Evander, Antony, and Rodriguez will start. Crepeau is facing another of his former clubs, so he’s going to be extra motivated to finally get his first Portland clean sheet. Phil Neville was non-committal about possible starts for Bravo and Felipe Mora. “I think that’s a big ask…that’s a decision that’s going to be made later in the week. Pipe, on the other hand, two goals in two games, he’s banging heavily on my door to start games of football. He’s been a brilliant professional when on the substitutes bench, so we know we’ve got that up our sleeve if we need it.” I think Bravo ends up starting and if he doesn’t Eric Miller is back at left back with Juan Mosquera on the right. Mora could start, but I think Neville is going to keep using Rodriguez as a striker to start games. For the record, I don’t have an issue with it. I think Dairon Asprilla starts over Santiago Moreno. The young Colombian has been dealing with a knock all week but should still see some game time. The midfield is where things get interesting. “All four players could start,” Neville said on Thursday. However, with Ayala’s excellent performance last week in mind, he’s the one who should get the start on Saturday. Diego Chara should return to the starting lineup as well. He didn’t get benched last weekend; he was being rested. With so many midfield options to choose from, resting Diego is going to become a common occurrence this season. There are tons of different combinations that the Timbers could use to start this game, and it wouldn’t shock me if this projected lineup is wrong.

Tactical Preview

This fixture could not come at a better time. LAFC excels at the exact things that the Timbers are struggling with. The Black-and-Gold are excellent on set pieces. They’re also an elite counter-attacking team. Plus they’re extremely tough to break down.

Last week in Kansas City, the Timbers made two serious errors on set pieces. Dany Rosero was able to crash the box off of a corner kick without a marker. And the free-kick routine SKC used right before halftime could not have worked any better. The common theme among both goals and so many of the goals that the Timbers concede off of restarts is losing markers. It looks like the Timbers are trying to do a hybrid marking system in the box. Some players are assigned to man-mark and others have zones to cover. What LAFC really excel at is the flick-on header. Corner kicks usually come in to the near post and get flicked on to the back post and a waiting LAFC player. This is how LAFC took the lead in El Trafico last weekend. Their objective on set pieces is to draw the defender’s focus to the front post and leave acres of space at the back post. The Timbers cannot fall for that. Their hybrid marking system should be able to work against it in theory. But as we’ve seen over and over again, ideas that should work in theory often fail on the pitch. With LAFC struggling in possession, every aspect of set piece defense will be crucial in order for the Timbers to win on Saturday.

For a couple of seasons, the Timbers have often left acres of space for teams to counter into when they lose the ball. Now they must face the biggest counterattacking threat in MLS: Denis Bouanga. If Bravo starts, Eric Miller will be at right back. He tends to stay back and has been able to neutralize pacey wingers before. Look at last season’s 0-0 draw in Seattle for evidence of him keeping Leo Chu at bay. If Bravo isn’t good to start, Mosquera will be in charge of locking down Bouanga. Do I think he’ll be up for it? Of course. Mosquera’s actual 1v1 defending tends to get underlooked by Timbers fans. But his positioning is his biggest weakness. Against LAFC, he’s going to have to balance his want to attack with his need to defend against the biggest test in the league for a right back. Despite Bouanga’s presence, set piece defending is more important than counter attacks. Why is that?

Most of the time when the Timbers turn the ball over, they are in the middle third of the pitch. But in order to talk about the Timbers’ attack, I have to start with Miguel Araujo. When Araujo was first signed, his statistical profile indicated that he is very good on the ball and very aggressive in the tackle. Against SKC, Araujo was able to play some beautiful long passes to start attacks. Him and Kamal Miller are the two best center backs on Portland’s roster with the ball at their feet, and both are crucial for the Timbers to create chances in possession. They will also need to do so while contending with a good LAFC press. With Araujo, Ayala, and Kamal progressing the ball, Portland can find ways into LAFC’s final third. Some people are going to hate to hear the next part, but this is a game for Portland’s secondary creators. Besides a dubious penalty decision, LAFC won their rivalry game last week because they were able to put the clamps on Riqui Puig. Evander will probably get double-teamed whenever he finds the ball, so this is a huge game for Antony and either Dairon/Santi. Getting Rodriguez adequate service has been a challenge so far (except for his debut) and in order for the Timbers to win they have to feed their DP forward. Evander won’t get shut out, per se, but I’m expecting him to have some trouble around the final third. And Portland will have a lot of the ball tomorrow (I’m expecting around 60-70% possession). Once again, this is exactly what the Timbers want. They want to have the ball. And they have to be clinical with the chances they create.

Final Thoughts

This is the only home game that the Timbers have during the month of April, so a win is incredibly necessary. They usually start out on the front foot at home, but fade in the second half. The Philadelphia loss is a perfect example of what happens when they don’t take their chances. LAFC could try to control the game without the ball in a similar manner. That’s what they did last season and it took them all the way to MLS Cup. 

Tomorrow’s game will be broadcast on both FOX and Apple TV, so expect kickoff to be closer to 1:55 PM than the listed 1:45. No announcer has been listed for the FOX broadcast, but it could be John Strong. I just can’t confirm it. The Apple broadcasters will be Max Bretos and Brian Dunseth. Bretos has actually grown on me in the past year, but he used to be LAFC’s local play-by-play voice. I hope he can contain his homerism for this game. 

Neville and Diego Chara echoed the same sentiment on Thursday: this is a massive test but one the team is up for. In order to get back in the win column and reverse the poor defensive trends from the start of the year, there needs to be a massive improvement shown from the whole team. Before they hit the road again for another month, they need a good win at home. And the team that is coming to Providence Park has been pitiful away from home in 2024. Time to pass this test.

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