Portland Timbers-LAFC Preview (9/9)

On Saturday, the Timbers host LAFC as the stretch run of the season truly begins. The Timbers are trying to sneak into the top 9, while LAFC is trying to hold on for dear life.

Maybe “holding on for dear life” is an exaggeration, but this is not the same LAFC team that won the Shield-Cup double last year. While Denis Bouanga has put in an MVP-level season, there are several flaws with this team. Let’s start at the striker position. After selling Chicho Arango, they didn’t sign a replacement until this summer window. That replacement is Mario Gonzalez, who joined from Braga for $3M. It’s a solid signing, nothing too spectacular. He did have a good scoring record on loan at Belgian side Leuven (13 goals in 22 appearances). When LAFC lost to Leon in the CCL Final, I said they would miss the playoffs. Right now, they’re in 3rd place in the West, 7 points clear of the playoff line. Given how bad the West is, it’s entirely possible that they miss the playoffs, however unlikely it looks right now. They had a net loss in the summer transfer window, trading Mahala Opoku to Montreal and and finally getting Jose Cifuentes his European move. Gonzalez, Filip Krastev, and Cristian Olivera are the replacements. I’m not sold on this LAFC team. They’re suffering on the pitch but they don’t have the media coverage they deserve because Inter Messi exists. Their spell as the shiny toy amongst the national media is over. 

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Since that June 4th loss at BMO Stadium to Leon, they are 6-3-8 in all competitions. That’s not good. They have also lost their last two games in Charlotte and at home to Inter Miami. The only impressive win in that stretch was their 4-0 destruction of RSL in Leagues Cup. The numbers do indicate that they should be good, but a lot of their offensive firepower comes from Denis Bouanga. He will miss tomorrow’s match because he can’t be with the Gabonese national team and with LAFC at the same time. His loss is massive for a team that needs to win a game. MLS Cup hero John McCarthy has retained his hold on the starting keeper job, while Aaron Long has added another warm body to the center back rotation. Mateuz Bogusz has confounded me all year. I couldn’t figure out what position they wanted him to play, but it appears he’s the Cifuentes replacement. Kellyn Acosta and Ilie Sanchez are still solid midfielders. Timothy Tillman has a role to play on this team, but he hasn’t been the same player since the CCL loss. However, one player is the shining example of what has happened to LAFC. Part of me is thankful for Carlos Vela’s late winner in 2011 against Wolves at the Hawthorns, but ever since he stepped foot in MLS at the head of this fake club I have hated him. Vela has been solid this season, but he hasn’t been the world-beater that LAFC expect him to be. Entering this match, he’s going to need to rediscover his talisman form. 

Five LAFC players will miss tomorrow’s game due to international duty. Bouanga, Stipe Biuk, Denil Maldonado, Cristian Torres, and Olivera are unavailable. That’s a lot of offensive firepower. So how will this depleted LAFC team line up?

This doesn’t look especially depleted, but there is a healthy scratch for this lineup. Giorgio Chiellini doesn’t like turf, so I’m not expecting him to make an appearance. Bogusz fills in for Bouanga on the left, while Tillman takes Bogusz’s spot in the midfield. Diego Palacios should start, which allows Ryan Hollingshead to fill his natural role at right back. It’s a weakened LAFC team, but not a helpless one.

A full week of rest is a wonderful thing. Miles Joseph noted in the pre-match press conference how the energy level of the team is completely back following their dramatic comeback in Seattle last weekend. Momentum is the one thing the Timbers haven’t found during this entire season. They still haven’t won two games in a row. That quest begins again tomorrow night. Cascadia can no longer be won, but the playoffs are somehow still alive. Masterful stuff from the Western Conference. The argument could be made that none of these 2023 Western Conference teams are truly good. That’s correct. The Timbers have had a miserable year but are still alive due to the sheer incompetence of the teams around them. Opportunities like that don’t come around often, and now there are 9 games left to close a four point gap and end the season above the playoff line. 

The international call-up bug also arrived in Portland. Juan Mosquera, Miguel Araujo, and Bryan Acosta will all be absent. However, the most notable absence is Dario Zuparic, who is suspended for yellow card accumulation. Sigh.

The backline is easy to predict given the absences. The midfield is unchanged. Where things get really interesting is the front three. You could argue that there are 6 starting-quality players trying to fill 3 spots. The only one who should be Sharpied in is Santiago Moreno. I think Blanco should be healthy enough to start while the striker position is more of a toss-up. What isn’t a toss-up is the goalkeeper position. Miles Joseph said that David Bingham has done a good job and he’s going to continue to start. If you told me this would be the case at this point last season, I would’ve laughed. But here we are, with Timbers #1 David Bingham in 2023. He hasn’t been bad, but I still feel awful for Ivacic. It’s truly been a year from hell for him.

This game is going to live or die on Claudio Bravo. Carlos Vela is the one player that the Timbers can’t afford to give any space to. Thankfully, Bravo is very good defensively, and just needs to watch how much he gets forward. That does beg the question of how much possession the Timbers are going to want. This could be a bunker-and-counter game to take advantage of LAFC’s weaknesses in transition. If you watched that Miami game, LAFC fell apart when defending quick counterattacks. That’s a blueprint that the Timbers could very easily use to their own advantage, especially with a weakened LAFC front line. I’m looking to the midfield in this one. In my latest article (https://cascadiafc.substack.com/p/creating-the-timbers-best-xi) I touched on how weak the midfield has been as of late. This is a massive prove-it game for that group of Evander, Paredes, and Diego. LAFC is not missing any key midfielders for this one, and that’s where the Timbers need to take control early. Right back Eric Miller is a good thing, but it does depend on who LAFC choose to line up alongside him. Steve Cherundolo has, at points, chosen to trot out a back three. I think LAFC stick with their trusty 4-3-3 in this one, but it is a tactical tweak that the Timbers might not expect. Bottomline: these two teams are desperate for a win and their shared history with each other could turn into a fouling match. 

Ross Smith and Tony Husband are on the call for this one (7:30 PM, Apple TV). Jake Zivin has the week off and I’m a little sad that there isn’t a Jake & Ross reunion for this game. Oh well. Despite the absences, and MLS’s confoundingly stupid insistence on playing games during international windows, we should still see an entertaining game on Saturday night. I really wish I had more to say, but as long as the Timbers use every ounce of their home-field advantage, they should be fine.

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