Portland Timbers-Minnesota United Preview (5/20)

Author’s Note: My midweek Salt Lake away day became a travel nightmare. The entirety of this preview is being written in Harry Reid International Airport (yes, that’s Las Vegas, they renamed it) at 1:30 in the morning while I wait for my return flight home. There is no party in Portland, and I am definitely not sleeping tonight. 

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Three days after a hard-earned draw in Salt Lake City, the Portland Timbers return to Providence Park to face Minnesota United on Saturday night (7:38 PM, NOT FREE on Apple TV). There will be a new commentary team for television viewers, as Callum Williams and Calen Carr are set to call their first Timbers game for Apple. Williams is a welcome sight for Minnesota fans, as he was their old play-by-play guy for their local broadcasts. Calen Carr is a member of the flagship MLS podcast ExtraTime Radio, and he brings a former player’s perspective to the commentary booth. I know a lot of color commentators are former players, but I haven’t heard anything good or bad about his commentary. Williams is one of Apple’s better play-by-play voices, but of course our first introduction to him on Season Pass will be with his former team as the opponents. Somehow we can’t get a single break commentator-wise. 

Moving on to Minnesota, the Loons (top 5 MLS nickname, seriously it’s perfect) have gained a reputation as solid but not particularly scary. Their first MLS match was a 2017 season opener at Providence Park, and they got destroyed. Minnesota actually leads the all-time series with Portland 6-2-4, but their goal difference in these matchups is -1. A couple of large Timbers victories are the reason for that. Last year, they went 0-1-1 against Portland, with a wacky 4-4 draw at Allianz Field and a 1-0 Timbers win at Providence Park. That loss in Portland was in a game they dominated. They are definitely a solid and well-coached team, but there is one position of concern on their roster. Somehow, they have never had a DP-quality number 9. I know Loons fans will point to Luis Amarilla, but a striker needs to score goals. Right now, two of their Designated Player spots are being used on the striker position. Neither of them are true DPs. It’s an odd roster build, but it has been able to work because of the presence of Emanuel Reynoso. However, Reynoso hasn’t played a single game yet for the team in 2023. Coming off a MVP-level season in 2022, he failed to show up to training for the 2023 preseason. He was stuck in Argentina dealing with some legal issues. However, he made his return to the team this past week. He essentially is their entire attack, and he’s a player who can be that match-winner in the offensive end. With all this murk surrounding their best player, Minnesota have had a surprisingly strong start to the 2023 season. Their 15 points with a 4-3-5 record is good enough for 7th in the Western Conference. However, many people are quick to point out that this is not a good team. I agree with them. They did sucker me into thinking they were actually good with their strong start, but any team that struggles to score goals is not a truly good team. I mentioned their striker problem earlier, but they have a few good options on the wings. Bongi Hlongwane is their top scorer with 3 goals, and Robin Lod leads the team with 12 chances created. In my opinion, Lod is the most underrated player in the league. He can play as a striker, winger, and as an 8 or a 6. His versatility is incredible, but he is not built to carry an attack. It doesn’t help when the Loons’ mark of 20 big chances missed is the 3rd most in the league. Even with 2 DP strikers, they can’t finish. Their defense is solid, and it’s what’s keeping them afloat right now. Dayne St. Clair is not an amazing goalkeeper, but he’s definitely above league average. Consistency is his biggest weakness. Miguel Tapias, new this year from Pachuca, has been a solid addition to a backline featuring veterans Michael Boxall and Kemar Lawrence. Wil Trapp is still perfectly average in the center of the pitch. Minnesota’s roster isn’t spectacular, but it’s very solid. Before their midweek victory over Houston, they hadn’t won in MLS play since April 1st. Houston also rotated heavily, but the Loons did not. Given that fact, here’s my predicted Minnesota starting XI:

Now, reader, you may be asking one thing: “You said Robin Lod is the most underrated player in this league. Why is he not in this XI?” Andy Greder of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reported that Lod tore his meniscus against Houston on Wednesday. He will undergo surgery this upcoming Monday. That frees up Franco Fragapane to make the start on the right wing.  After some allegations from Diego Chara concerning racial abuse (which the league did not take seriously at all), Fragapane is widely hated in Portland. Jung Sang-Bin should re-enter the starting lineup in Lod’s absence. Minnesota is now incredibly thin at the winger positions, so Adrian Heath will have to get creative with subs.  I tried to account for rotation, and only one starter from Wednesday’s win will start Saturday on the bench. The first is right back DJ Taylor. This is purely because former Timber Zarek Valentin getting the chance to start in Portland will be too good for Heath to pass up. Taylor has been solid but not spectacular for the Loons, so Valentin is close to a like-for-like replacement. Brett Kallman is a player who could see time at center back and make a surprise start, but the Tapias-Boxall pairing has been key to their success. Mender Garcia is the other DP striker on the roster, and he’s pretty much a break-glass option at this point. I consider him to be the worst DP in the league. Reynoso has only just returned to team activities, so it would be a massive shock if he traveled to Portland. All in all, solidity is the key for Minnesota. 

You could also use the word solidity to describe the Portland Timbers. In all matches with both Zac McGraw and Dario Zuparic starting at center back since March 18th, they have conceded 6 goals in 8 games. That’s less than a goal per game, and both defenders are absolutely crucial to the team’s spine. Coming off a gutsy performance in Salt Lake City, the Timbers are ready to snatch another three points at home. The question of rotation will continue to get raised, especially with such a quick turnaround from Wednesday. 

Some things just continue to surprise me. Both Cristhian Paredes and Diego Chara have played the full 90 in both matches this week. Neither have shown any signs of slowing down. All substitutes in the RSL match were ones I expected. The only players I have concerns about for Saturday are the central midfielders (duh), Claudio Bravo, and Evander. Evander has also played the full 90 in both matches this week, and with Sebastian Blanco cleared to play Saturday he might not have to play 3 full matches in a week. Blanco’s season league debut has been highly anticipated, and one short cameo at home seems like a wonderful move to make to excite the fans. Noel Caliskan is also awaiting his MLS debut, and that might come on Saturday as well. Bravo played the full 90 in both games, so an Eric Miller substitute might be coming his way as well. Dairon Asprilla will once again come off the bench. Jaroslaw Niezgoda was a late scratch in Salt Lake, but that was due to his wife going into labor. It is unknown if he will be available to play on Saturday, but if he isn’t Nathan Fogaca is the natural backup at the striker position. Tega Ikoba was also removed from the injury list, but I don’t think he will immediately return to the first team. Should be another straightforward best XI for Giovanni Savarese.

Defensive solidity is the one thing Minnesota can truly count on. They also picked up a crucial win at home against Houston on Wednesday, and are looking to keep building momentum for Reynoso’s return. Points at any measure is looking like their goal in Portland, and I expect their approach to be focused on limiting everything Portland can do with the ball. A park-the-bus style of play combined with quick bursting counters seems like the best option for Minnesota if they want to get a result. That once again puts the impetus on the Timbers to pick any weak spots they can find and exploit it. As we saw last Saturday against Vancouver, the Portland Timbers are slowly growing into an attacking juggernaut. And once again, Evander will have the biggest role to play in that. The chemistry is building with him and the other attackers, particularly Santiago Moreno and Juan Mosquera on the right. Just look at that second goal in the Vancouver game for more proof. Kemar Lawrence was a liability in this matchup last year. Expect Portland to attack down the right quite a bit. I also think the Timbers can exploit Minnesota’s weaknesses by utilizing well-timed diagonal switches. Let Santi and Juan combine a bit on the right, place Evander a bit deeper, and switch the ball to Yimmi on the left. Let Yimmi run at Minnesota’s right back (either Valentin or Taylor) and let Cristhian Paredes make another late run into the box, and suddenly there’s a chance available for the taking. This also works with Yimmi and Bravo combining on the left and then the switch going towards the right. Evander seems keen to play those long switches, so let him do it. He is still dangerous even when he’s closer to midfield than the 18 yard box. The Timbers will have a lot of the ball in this one. Also, this match is setting up very nicely for Franck Boli. Running at Vancouver’s tired center backs allowed him to find the early go-ahead goal last Saturday, and both Boxall and Tapias will be starting their third game in a week. I’ve been a fan of his movement in the box and his instinct to find the goal. He will score for Portland again on Saturday night. Combo play around the box can often be frustrating to watch because of this team’s frequent urge to shoot. If there is a good angle, just let one rip. St. Clair continues to be inconsistent, and he will make a mistake eventually. Defensively, another thing to keep an eye on is Minnesota’s press. There is a lot of speed in their forward line, and if they smell weakness they will press heavily. That could lead to some sloppy turnovers, as the Timbers still aren’t perfect playing out from the back. Minnesota is very good in those quick transitional moments, and defending in those situations is still a weakness for Portland. The understanding from both Bravo and Mosquera on who needs to stay back was crucial on Wednesday night. Minnesota is not going to take the game to Portland the same way RSL did, but it’s still important to maintain this team’s defensive solidity. Set pieces aren’t a massive worry against the Loons, but it’s always worth mentioning. 

So far in MLS, the title-contending teams have already set themselves ahead of the pack. Even with a summer transfer window still to come, you can already tell who’s a good team and who’s struggling. In order to be one of those good teams, you need to win at home. The Timbers’ home record in 2023 is 3-2-1. It’s tough calling every home match a must-win game, but if this team wants to go far in the playoffs they must get as many home wins as they can. You might remember my May points target of 8 in their four matches after the Austin game. So far, they are halfway through and have 4 points in those 2 games. In order to meet that target, a result is definitely needed. They have only failed to collect points at home only once in 2023, and that was with a squad that was still reeling from injuries. Any result still puts them on target to meet that points goal, but since it’s a home game they must win. Minnesota is technically mid. Get three points at Providence Park before a trip to Kansas City. 

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