Portland Timbers-Minnesota United Preview (6/29)

On May 18th, the Portland Timbers traveled to Minnesota on short rest and lost 2-1. Since that game, they haven’t lost a match. Tomorrow, the Loons make their annual trip to Portland, and the Timbers are hoping to set the record straight. 

The Loons Report

It has not been a pretty six weeks for Minnesota United (8-5-6, 29 points, 5W/11S). Since that victory over Portland, their stellar form has fallen off a cliff. In the seven games since that win, the Loons are 1-2-4 with a -5 goal differential. The only victory in that timespan was against SKC, who have only won 1 league game since March 30th (you’ll never guess who that one victory was against, spoiler alert, it was against the Greatest Team You’ve Ever Seen). Their schedule has seemingly taken a turn for the better during this stretch. The hardest game was an away trip to LAFC, and they lost, but it was a game that they were kind of expected to lose. But this run began with a bad collapse in Colorado. The Loons held a 3-1 halftime lead, and the Rapids fought back with two second half goals to earn a result at home. But their worst form arrived when Tani Oluwaseyi, Dayne St. Clair, and Carlos Harvey went on international duty. They’ve been allowing a lot more goals since St. Clair left. Clint Irwin has been one of the worse statistical goalkeepers in the league, and he was unable to keep a clean sheet in each of their 3 matches last week (all losses). Those losses weren’t exactly against powerhouse teams either. They allowed the Seattle Sounders to have a routine win (in a year where the Sounders have been anything but routine), they fell victim to FC Dallas’ new coach bump, and they embarrassingly lost 1-0 at home to a weak Austin team without Sebastian Driussi. Injuries are also taking a toll, with Teemu Pukki and Devin Padelford sidelined for a significant period of time. This team isn’t absolutely doomed by their absences. There is some quality depth on the Loons’ roster. But it seems like they have run out of gas and are missing their top contributors to give them an edge. 

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In addition to those gone on international duty (Oluwaseyi, St. Clair, Carlos Harvey, Alejandro Bran), Hassani Dotson was sent off in the loss against Austin and will miss tomorrow’s match. Hugo Bacharach, Franco Fragapane, and Teemu Pukki are all out due to injury.

Although the absences for the Loons are pretty massive, they can still field a very good team tomorrow. Irwin steps in for St. Clair, and Padelford is set to return after suffering a concussion against Seattle. Tapias and Boxall are two first-choice center backs. Not only is Dotson suspended, Kervin Arriaga finalized a transfer to FK Partizan in Serbia this week. So the Loons are ridiculously thin in the midfield. Lod will drop back a line and partner with Trapp. Rosales has been criminally underrated by fans and media this season (I put him on my All-Star ballot). Taylor has been very solid at RWB after some disappointing showings at RB under Adrian Heath. Hlongwane isn’t really a striker, but he’s the best that the Loons can do up top. Unless Eric Ramsay is keen on trying out Sang Bin at the 9. Clark should start on the left wing after playing RWB in the first meeting between these two on May 18th. Minnesota might not have the quality to win this match, but this is a very solid team. I’m getting serious “trap game” vibes. 

The Timbers Report

Everyone loves a good charity match! And Wednesday’s Green is Gold match to benefit the Nature Conservancy was certainly an excellent way to raise money for a good cause and just have some fun. My explanations won’t be able to do it justice, so just watch the highlights. All I can say is that a one-armed bandit was on the loose, a goalkeeper got a different perspective of the match (from section 107), a Timbers Academy player scored the best goal of the day, and both head coaches got on the pitch and got a few touches in. Phil Neville did take the pitch and gave a very interesting quote about the effect that the Green is Gold match had on the team: “What we lost in training we gained in spirit and togetherness.” 

That spirit and togetherness is already very high. The Timbers (7-6-7. 27 points, 6W/12S) are riding a 6-game unbeaten streak. This Minnesota squad was the last team to beat them. Since that game, the defensive structure has been improved and the offense hasn’t stopped scoring. Jonathan Rodriguez, Evander, and Felipe Mora are the only trio in the league with at least 8 goals each. The Uruguayan has been able to step right into this team and be able to contribute immediately. Credit can be given to his teammates for helping him adjust so quickly. Claudio Bravo and Cristhian Paredes have been instrumental in the locker room. Evander’s second season surge is defined by his embrace of a leadership role and the creative freedom he has on the pitch. Mora is unbelievably smart, and knows where he needs to be to put the ball in the net. Portland is still outperforming their xG, but it doesn’t look like a fluke on the offensive end. They’re creating more chances and they’re finding more ways to put the ball in the back of the net.

The defense has been a problem for most of the season, but the improvements over the past month has allowed the Timbers to rise up the table. Since that May 18th loss in Minnesota, the Timbers have only conceded multiple goals once. They have also kept 3 clean sheets. Juan Mosquera has taken a lot of heat this season, and I had the opportunity to speak to him on Thursday. He had quite a bit of fun during the Green is Gold match: “I think the most important thing was that the fans, who are always with us, enjoyed (the match). I enjoyed it. It was the first time that I played in this type of event because normally in Colombia things like this don’t happen. It was also great playing with a lot of the women’s players, many of whom have their jersey. At least personally, I liked it a lot and it was great that it served a good cause.”

“He has raised his level on the pitch,” Neville said about his young Colombian fullback. “We’re seeing some consistency to everything he does.” Mosquera added his own perspective to his excellent run of form. “The beginning of the season was very difficult. The first few games of the season didn’t go as well for me as I had hoped, which I know, it was a challenge for me. I recently spoke with (Phil Neville) and we talked about what it would take for me to reach the point I am at now. Since then, I have been working twice as hard and to not have been included in the (Colombian) team for Copa America has served as extra motivation. The most important thing is that I  continue to enjoy what I am doing with (the Timbers). I have gone into the last few games playing the best I can, and the team has been improving as well.”

During this 6-match unbeaten run, the Timbers have allowed 5.52 non-penalty xG against. They have only conceded 4 goals. The defensive improvements can be seen on the stat sheet and with the eye test. The “2023 back four” and James Pantemis have been massive since Miguel Araujo, Kamal Miller, and Max Crepeau left for Copa America. All three of the International Timbers played each other on Tuesday in sweltering Kansas City. Crepeau and Araujo started, while Miller was a halftime sub. Crepeau made several good saves, but his most notable moment came in first half stoppage time. One of the linesmen collapsed due to dehydration, and Crepeau was able to stop the game so medics could attend to the situation. The Canadian keeper’s heroism was a defining moment for him in a tournament where he has been far-and-away the top goalkeeper. My condolences go out to Araujo. He received a yellow card due to a hard challenge on Jacob Shaffelburg, but then VAR recommended a review. The final decision was a red card for Araujo. It was the worst possible situation for him. Araujo did go in hard, but he wasn’t trying to clear out Shaffelburg’s left leg with his studs. But the studs did make contact with Shaffelburg’s leg, and a red card was the correct ruling. Brutal. Araujo is always proud to play for his country, and I’m gutted that he got sent off in this game. However, it is incredibly ironic that he got sent off with two of his club teammates on the opposing team. Canada plays Chile at 5 PM tomorrow on FS2, so feel free to tune in for Crepeau and Miller’s final game of the group stage. A win or draw will secure Canada’s place in the quarterfinals. Araujo’s Peru will play Argentina tomorrow, and it looks like their Copa journey will end given that they are 4th in the group and need a lot of things to go their way in order to qualify. 

No changes to the injury report from last week. Marvin Loria is still out, and Araujo, Miller, and Crepeau are still on international duty.

No changes from the XI against Vancouver. And there really don’t need to be any. It is worth noting that the Timbers do have a midweek game on Thursday in Dallas (BACK TO BACK 4TH OF JULY GAMES *EAGLE EMOJI AND SOUND EFFECT*). However, the Timbers shouldn’t be focused on possible rotation for the starting lineup. That rotation might affect the substitutes. One player who will see game time is Dairon Asprilla. His departure to Atletico Nacional in Colombia has been well-publicized this week, and this will be his last game as a Portland Timber. Reminder: a full article about his departure is coming this week. Saturday should be a celebration of Asprilla’s time in Portland, and he will take the field for the last time in a Timbers jersey. I hope he finds the back of the net in an Adi-style goodbye. 

Tactical Preview

Transitions

That Minnesota midfield looks an awful lot like butter, so the Timbers could be at their best in transition tomorrow. In previous games, they have relaxed a little bit during certain transition opportunities and have allowed defenders to fully recover. Portland has to go for the jugular tomorrow. However, on the other side of the coin, Minnesota’s front three is incredibly pacey. Sang Bin and Hlongwane can give the Timbers fits if they are caught out of position. Another big game for Bravo and Mosquera. 

Physicality

The last meeting between these two teams was an incredibly physical affair. The Timbers struggled with Minnesota’s aggression. In order to win this game, Portland will have to match Minnesota’s physicality and win plenty of second balls. They cannot allow themselves to be bullied off their own pitch. 

Final Thoughts

Announcer Analytics

The Apple gods have smiled upon us! Tony Husband and Ross Smith will be on the call in English. The Spanish broadcast will feature Francisco X. Rivera and Diego Tabares. Since this is a home game, the local radio broadcast from 750 The Game is an option on Apple TV. The match kicks off at 7:30 PM PST and is NOT FREE on Apple TV.

Referee Report

Timothy Ford is the center ref for tomorrow’s game. He has never refereed a Portland-Minnesota game before. The Timbers have never lost at home when Ford is refereeing and Minnesota has never won on the road when Ford is refereeing. All stats come from @MLSRefStats on Twitter.

Final Whistle

It seems like the Timbers have jumped up at least one spot after every match during this 6-game unbeaten streak. They have the opportunity to leapfrog the Loons with a victory tomorrow. “After we hit the bottom in the Seattle game, we’ve been trying to jump a place in the table every game since,” Neville said to reporters on Thursday. “We’ve got a lot of work to do, we’re not carried away, our feet are firmly on the ground and we’re focused on building momentum and building confidence. I think the boys are enjoying what they’re doing in this moment in time. The longer this continues, the better it is for us.” With the team in excellent form, and excellent vibes from the midweek charity match, the Portland Timbers are set to continue their climb. But this could be a trap game, and the Timbers cannot afford to get complacent. The opportunity is there, and the Timbers need to seize it. 

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