Portland Timbers-NYCFC Preview (6/24)

When the season schedule gets released every January, there are always a couple games that get circled. Every Cascadia match is immediately marked on my calendar. But this year, one other opponent gets the special circle treatment. It’s everyone’s favorite oil club, NYCFC.

We all know the story of 2021. The Western Conference Final that didn’t have a single speck of anxiety. The week leading up to MLS Cup featured not just anxiety for the game but if any of us non-season-ticket-holders could even attend. Spending that fretful Tuesday sitting in a SeatGeek queue while the website crashed. Once the website opened back up we saw all the scalpers who had already bought tickets and were now selling them at ridiculous prices. Being the squeaky wheel that I am, I tried to scheme every single way to get in those doors. And I found it through the NYCFC away fan section. I am not telling you this story to brag. I am telling you this story to make my final personal amends for my actions. Following an incredibly tough 2021 as a sports fan (KD’s foot, Isles elimination, Yankees choke in postseason, West Brom relegation, Zach Wilson over Penei Sewell and the rest of the pain that comes with being a fan of the New York Jets) all I could think about was the one avenue left I had to sports happiness. Nothing was going to keep me out of Providence Park on December 11, 2021. After my initial ticket purchase through NYCFC got declined an email got sent to me that NYCFC was flagging any ticket from the Oregon/Washington area. In order to get my ticket, I was going to have to do something desperate. 

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*I can’t believe that I was so mad about Cashman’s inability to try to get Seager that I put it in this email. But I was treated to a full year of the IKF experience, so I’ll take points for being correct on that.*

I lied through my teeth to get a $75 ticket. I did get into the stadium and witness the events that transpired on December 11th. Afterwards, I sent an email to the NYCFC ticket rep who allowed me to attend. He got the last laugh, and I have carried a silent burden since. Did my actions curse the team that I love? Would the Timbers have two stars above their crest if I didn’t send that email? Of course, there were actual soccer reasons that were responsible for our loss that day (Paredes not starting, Asprilla starting, a super delayed kickoff in bad weather conditions). But I am ready to clear my conscience of my superstition. I accept the role I played in cursing 2021 MLS Cup. It can’t be undone, but I have finally made peace with my actions. I promise to never do it again. 

Moving on to the visitors, they made the playoffs again following their MLS Cup triumph. Finally facing a healthy Philadelphia Union squad in the Eastern Conference Final, they fell short of back-to-back MLS Cup appearances. During the offseason, they lost three cornerstones of that cup-winning team. Maxi Moralez, Alex Callens, and Sean Johnson both departed and neither has been fully replaced. With a 4-8-7 record (20 points) they currently sit in 12th in the Eastern Conference. This is a very young team and although they are talented there is a massive leadership vacuum. Gabriel Pereira leads the team in goals with 6. American international Richy Ledezma is the top assister with 4. While this team is very talented, they’re on short rest and still not scoring a bunch. Their 1.1 goals per match is in the bottom half of all MLS teams. Their combined xG of 21.3 is also in the league’s lower half. But they do rank very highly in big chances created. This speaks to their lack of replacing diving specialist Taty Castellanos. The hole they have at the striker position is massive. This NYCFC team is special for one reason: they are winless on the road. A 0-5-5 record is very bad. When they aren’t playing in one of the two ballparks that they host matches in they are awful. However, they came awfully close to breaking that duck on Wednesday. A 90+5 minute equalizer from Atlanta’s Nicolas Firmino denied the Pigeons (fantastic nickname, like the team’s home stadium pigeons aren’t real) from their first away win of 2023. They will also be searching for their first win since April 22nd. That’s a 10 game winless streak for the Pigeons.  They will be traveling to Portland on short rest. Portland’s all-time record against NYCFC is 5-1-1 (pain). 

NYCFC’s only has one serious injury. Center back Thiago Martins will be out with a knee injury. James Sands is on the USMNT Gold Cup roster and will miss this match. Maxime Chanot was on international duty with Luxembourg but should return for this match. Whether or not he’ll be good to start remains to be seen, but I’ll bet that he sees the field in some capacity on Saturday night. One interesting note is Chanot’s yellow card suspension. The league said he would serve it against Atlanta, but he was still on international duty during it. It’s worth monitoring if the league forces him to serve it once he actually rejoins the team.

The Pigeons rotated on Wednesday, so I can project a first XI for them. Tony Alfaro will slot in at CB for the missing Sands. Mitja Ilenic didn’t see the field in Atlanta. Parks and Morales are their midfield pairing, and both should start. Justin Haak will back them up. The front four will be pretty unchanged, but they will continually swap places. All can play across the four attacking positions in Nick Cushing’s 4-2-3-1. Matias Pellegrini is the most likely substitute, but Gabe Segal is the most natural striker on the roster. This is still a tough team to face, even on short rest. 

Portland had a real wake-up call on Wednesday night. In the post-game press conference, both Franck Boli and Giovanni Savarese acknowledged that it was a game they should’ve won. But the tactical plan was flawed from the very start. The high line deployed by Portland allowed Chicago to get in behind the backline way too easily. With the clean sheet broken, Savarese might try another tactical overhaul. Rotation is another thing to worry about, but there isn’t enough quality depth to truly rotate. Such is Savarese’s conundrum. At least it’s another home game. This 5-6-8 team needs every single home game they can get. 

This match is the first of at least three matches Zac McGraw will miss while he is with the Canadian national team for the Gold Cup. Since Gregg Berhalter isn’t coaching for some reason, I will be rooting wholeheartedly for our (suspiciously) kind neighbors to the north.Three returns should bolster the Timbers. Two (Aljaz Ivacic and Juan Mosquera) are returning from international duty, although neither of them had the same experience with their countrymen. The most anticipated return of the season, however, belongs to Felipe Mora. This is not meant to disrespect Sebastian Blanco’s recovery in the slightest. But since Mora’s iconic goal against this week’s opponents on that fateful windy day in December 2021, he has barely played due to injury. His return is not just a massive boost to the locker room, but another player who can contribute. Given how cautious Savarese has been regarding injuries, I have faith that Mora has recovered to his fullest capacity. Even when he wasn’t cleared for on-field drills, you could see him smiling from the weight room at the Timbers Training Facility. This team needs him both emotionally and tactically. And all signs are pointing to his return to the field on Saturday night. Dairon Asprilla and Sebastian Blanco are late additions to the injury report with hamstring and thigh injuries respectively. Thankfully I already made this lineup last night.

There is one obvious change to the Timbers XI. Larrys Mabiala will start for McGraw. I can hear the groans already, but Mabiala was superb in MLS Cup. I know several years have passed, but I have faith that he will have a good game. Feel free to berate me, but a man can believe. Ivacic will be back in the lineup, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see David Bingham again. The most interesting change is Mosquera. I think he could either line up at right back or right wing. In my opinion, it’s a coin flip on which position he will play. Asprilla’s injury doesn’t change my XI, purely because he has been rather middling as of late. It just provides Gio with an extra impetus to play Mosquera farther up the pitch. Paredes finally gets his start against NYCFC although it is a year and a half late. I don’t have faith in any midfield subs barring injury. An opportunity for Noel Caliskan seems very unlikely, but Savarese could surprise me once again. The substitutes to watch are Mora, Marvin Loria, Nathan Fogaca and possibly Justin Rasmussen playing as a winger. That’s some decent strength the Timbers have available off the bench. Another must-win game for Portland. 

NYCFC loves to have the ball. Their 54.2% average possession is 5th in MLS. But with their awful record of actually scoring, bunkering and countering looks like a successful strategy. A tired team on short rest is bound to make mistakes, and the Timbers can easily capitalize on those mistakes (in theory). This is another reason why I put Juan Mosquera on the wing instead of right back. Allowing Claudio Bravo to get forward will get Portland’s 5 most dangerous attackers involved in every counterattack. It’s kind of sad that the state of the roster is such, but utilizing your available players is what a good coach should do. With Juan not needing to focus on his defensive responsibilities, he can focus more on his attacking quality instead. Prior to finishing this preview, a representative from NYCFC reached out to me to provide a little blurb for their website on the Timbers. In that questionnaire, he asked me about any X-Factors to keep an eye on. I picked Santiago Moreno. In 2023, the Timbers are 2-0-1 in matches where Santi has registered a goal involvement (they’re all assists, he needs to take the next penalty awarded to the Timbers). If Santi is good, the Timbers’ attack is good. The attack began to slow down once Moreno left the pitch against Chicago, although it was the right sub for Savarese to make just based on rest. It’s tough to appreciate your good outing when the team loses the game, but that’s exactly what Santi needs to do. Focus on what he did well against Chicago and do it again on Saturday night. I’m not going to be too critical of Evander. I will excuse his performance on Wednesday night as an off night. He’s been too good for me to believe that one bad game will become the norm. The Timbers are 3-1-1 in matches where Evander gets a goal involvement, with the one loss being the 3-2 defeat to LAFC back in early March. Simply put, both him and Santi need to be firing. Franck Boli is the best striker on the roster, and running at a tired NYCFC backline will provide a spark for this team. With Mora’s availability, it is very likely that we will see Boli get at least 75 minutes on Saturday night. An available Mora means that Jaroslaw Niezgoda is unlikely to see the field. Part of my mind continues to wonder what would’ve happened if Jaro’s initial volley in MLS Cup would’ve gone in. But alas, it was blocked, and Felipe was there to clean it up. All in all, it should be a pretty straightforward gameplan for Savarese. As he said in the Chicago postgame press conference and again at training on Thursday, “The only thing that matters is the result. I don’t care about possession, shots, fouls, etc. Only the result matters.”

The goal of 7 points in the remaining 4 June matches is still attainable. But the Timbers have to win to reach it. It hasn’t been an inspiring month, even if the Timbers do win on Saturday. 

It’s another 7:38 PM kickoff at Providence Park. For those who won’t be traveling to the stadium, you’ll be treated to another Ross Smith commentary on Apple TV. I will be returning to my old spot in section 106 for this match (lawfully this time) and it’s gonna feel good to lose my voice again. When I have sat in the Army this year (I’m counting Seattle away in this) the Timbers are 2-2-0. Should be a good omen. Given the Timbers’ inconsistent nature, I’m sure they will win too. But as always, I’m prepared to be disappointed. You can never be too sure.

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