Portland Timbers-Philadelphia Union Preview (3/23)

After two weeks away, the Portland Timbers return to Providence Park on Saturday to host the Philadelphia Union. In 2024, however, the Union looks completely different from what we’re used to.

The Union Report

Philadelphia have largely kept the same core that led them to a Supporter’s Shield title in 2020 and an Eastern Conference Championship in 2022. Despite some great regular seasons from 2020-2023, those two trophies are all that they have to show for it. They were so close to claiming MLS Cup in 2022, only to be denied on penalties after a late Gareth Bale equalizer deep in extra time. This season, their quest for trophies began with CONCACAF Champions’ Cup. They have already been eliminated from that competition after suffering a massive 6-0 defeat against Pachuca in Mexico. Last week they tried to bounce back against Austin, but they couldn’t find a winner despite dominating the final 10 minutes of the game. Philadelphia is 0-3-0 so far in MLS play, and they’re having problems at both ends of the field.

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Jim Curtin has relied on a steady group of veterans throughout the 2020s thus far. Andre Blake is one of the best goalkeepers in the league, but he’s regressed in 2024 so far. The same could be said of the rest of the defense. Jack Elliott and Jakob Glesnes are also slumping. Left back Kai Wagner was brought back in free agency and is also having a hard start to 2024. On the attacking end, Julian Carranza is one of the best strikers in the league when he’s in form. He hasn’t scored a MLS goal in 2024. His strike partner Mikael Uhre has scored twice. With underperformance all over the roster and the stink of the 6-0 failure in Mexico, the Union need to turn the ship around as soon as possible. 

The signs are not pointing towards a turnaround happening in Portland, however. The Union are down several key contributors due to international duty. Phil Neville is upset that MLS games are scheduled during international windows. “Fans want to see the best players play,” Neville said to reporters on Thursday. I completely agree with him. Last season, Aljaz Ivacic got called up to the Slovenian national team in the middle of Portland’s season. Every other player on that roster didn’t have a club season to worry about, but Ivacic went to try to earn a start for his country. We all know what happened next. Ivacic didn’t play for Slovenia, and he returned to Portland to try and win his starting job back. Earlier this week, Ivacic was released by the Timbers. I still believe that he was done dirty by several people, from the Slovenian national team to other members of the Timbers. But his response to the actions taken by those other people led to his release. Who knows what would have happened if there weren’t MLS games scheduled during international breaks? He had just kept a clean sheet in Seattle before the Slovenians came calling. Unfortunately, the events that followed played out, and now Aljaz Ivacic is a quality free agent available for any MLS team. I’m still rooting for him to find success, and I know that other people in and around the Timbers organization are feeling the same way.

Now back to the Union after that relevant detour. Tai Baribo, Andre Blake, Jesus Bueno, Daniel Gazdag, Nathan Harriel, Damien Lowe, Jose Martinez, and Jack McGlynn are all on international duty. That is 5 starters and 3 solid depth players who are not with the team. Leon Flach, Isaiah LeFlore, and Holden Trent are out with injury. With so many players gone, here’s how I expect the Union to line up tomorrow:

Bear with me, because I am completely lost. The only units I can properly predict are the back five and the front two. Oliver Semmle will step in for the absent Blake, and the back four are the same back four who started the 2022 MLS Cup Final in Los Angeles. Mikael Uhre and Julian Carranza are both available, so they should both start up top. The midfield is missing not one but TWO ball-winners. I have no idea how Curtin is going to solve for it, but I think that Alejandro Bedoya gets the start at the base of the midfield. Quinn Sullivan and Jeremy (nice name bud) Rafanello should be in the starting lineup. Chris Donovan isn’t a 10, but I think Curtin will use him as a second (third?) striker. The Union only have 14 field players and 2 goalkeepers available. They’re going to try and secure a result, because under these circumstances that would qualify as a win in their book.

The Timbers Report

Jonathan Rodriguez finally joined the team this week after a long protracted transfer saga. Ned Grabavoy held a press conference to introduce the newest Timber on Thursday. However, the most interesting thing he said had nothing to do with Rodriguez. I asked Grabavoy if there were any other additions he was planning on making before the transfer window closes. He responded by saying that the team was looking to add more depth, but they were focusing on making those additions internally. Basically, T2 is actually going to be important going forward. This focus on the academy and the second team is a pleasant change from past years, where T2 was just an afterthought for young players to get minutes. With this focus on the academy in mind, I would like to announce a new Cascadia FC feature: The T2 Report. Every month, I will compile recaps and notes from all T2 games and put them in one place for y’all to enjoy. This will be behind the paywall, so make sure you are a paid subscriber in order to read all about the future of the Timbers. Every T2 home game is free to attend, so it’s also worth taking a trip to Providence Park to see them in person. Tonight, they play The Town FC, formerly San Jose Earthquakes II, at 7:30 PM at Providence Park. 

Aside from that quick advertisement, the press conference didn’t hold any surprises. Rodriguez expressed his desire to win trophies and get back into the Uruguayan national team. He really wants to play after seeing his minutes decrease at Club America. As I said in my article released after his signing, he’s versatile enough to fit in anywhere across the front three and shouldn’t have any trouble getting minutes if he’s healthy. Training-wise, Felipe Mora is available for selection tomorrow. He’s finally back from a broken/fractured pinky toe (Phil Neville didn’t clarify which one) and is ready to make his season debut. Claudio Bravo was back on the field with the team, but he’s still two weeks away from a potential return. That puts him ahead of schedule, and he could possibly make his season debut in Kansas City on April 7th. Tega Ikoba has been loaned out to Indy Eleven in the USL, and I hope he gets the game time he needs. 

Maxime Crepeau, Kamal Miller, and Miguel Araujo are with their respective national teams this weekend. Claudio Bravo, Marvin Loria, and Trey Muse are out with injury. Rodriguez is available to play, so he should make his Timbers debut tomorrow.

Why does Rodriguez start over Mora? Well, Rodriguez isn’t coming off an injury. James Pantemis gets another start with Crepeau absent. Dario Zuparic makes his second consecutive start, but his partner will be the returning Zac McGraw instead of the absent Kamal Miller. The front three should remain the same, but I think this is a perfect game to start Eryk Williamson. I’ll explain more later. This is a strong Timbers team, despite the absences. David Ayala, Dairon Asprilla, Mora, and Cristhian Paredes are good options to bring in off the bench.

Tactical Preview

The Timbers are at home, and they’re still working to implement Neville’s ball-dominant style. There is no better time and opponent to iron out this approach than a Union team that has a depleted midfield. Since the Timbers should want to have the ball for a majority of the game, Williamson is a natural choice to start over Paredes. The Timbers need to attack early and often to try and put this game away as early as possible. Then Paredes can be brought on to help protect the lead. Last time the Timbers were at home, they allowed DC United to come back from a 2-0 deficit and get a draw. In both of their home games, the Timbers have garnered multi-goal leads. I have faith that they can do it again, but with excellent game-killers Dairon Asprilla and Paredes on the bench they should be able to close out this game more effectively. 

Philly does like to press, and the Timbers need to exploit the wide areas that the Union will vacate. I don’t have any more analysis on that front. It’s just something they should do.

Defensively, Uhre and Carranza are very good strikers. McGraw and Zuparic will have their hands full. But my key worry is set pieces. Bedoya is good at delivering, and the duo of Elliott and Glesnes are very good at finishing. Glesnes also has a cannon of a right foot, so any free kick situation can be a big scoring opportunity for the Union. Juan Mosquera will also have his hands full with Kai Wagner and his crossing ability on the right side of the Timbers’ formation. But the Timbers’ midfield should be able to dominate the Philly midfield. This game has all the keys to unlock another big Timbers win.

Final Thoughts

It’s another 7:30 PM kickoff at Providence Park, and the game is NOT FREE on Apple TV. The Timbers are trying to keep their good start going, and Philly is trying to reverse their disappointing start. One team is crippled by absences, and they have to travel to one of the toughest environments in the country. The other team is hosting, their new star player is set to make his debut, and they have enough depth to cover for the absences on their own roster. The Timbers are 6-3-3 all time against the Union, but they have lost their last two matchups. Time to end the losing streak.

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