Portland Timbers-Real Salt Lake Preview (8/30)

After another home loss, the Portland Timbers will be trying to regain their home field advantage against Real Salt Lake on Wednesday night (7:30 PM, Apple TV). RSL was a summer darling for many, but they’re having a lot of trouble right now. 

Across all competitions from June 3rd to July 22nd, Real Salt Lake had an 11-match unbeaten streak. Then they lost to Monterrey, beat Leon, and had their Leagues Cup run end with a horrific 4-0 loss to LAFC. Since the MLS season resumed, they played the Houston Dynamo twice. Once in the Open Cup, and the other in league play. They lost both. That’s 4 losses in the last 5 after almost 2 months without a single loss. It was the same team that beat Portland 5-0, but it’s a shocking turn from a team that many pegged to be a MLS Cup contender. In my opinion, they still are. They had the best summer transfer window out of any club that didn’t sign Lionel Messi. Easter Island model Chicho Arango was the first arrival back in June. They also added Colombian midfielder Nelson Palacio and brought in Braian Ojeda on loan from Nottingham Forest. Arango by himself would instantly catapult this summer window into the top 5, but the additions of Palacio and Ojeda are massive in their own way. Pablo Ruiz got injured in the LAFC match, and could be out for the remainder of the season. The RSL front office realized they had a solid team and the Western Conference is there for the taking. Credit to them. But they need to get out of this slump in order to keep climbing the table. At this moment, they are 4th in the West with 37 points and a 10-7-8 record. That’s pretty good, but their goal differential is -2. RSL leads the league in shots on target per game, and they also lead the league in accurate long balls per game. Defensively, they’re solid, but prone to counterattacks. They’re a good team and they’re only going to get better. Don’t let the slump deceive you. 

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In terms of their squad, Brayan Vera should be back after serving a suspension against Houston. This is the third match in a week that RSL will be playing, and they have a home game next Saturday against rival Colorado. Rotation will definitely be a question, but this is a more difficult game than their rivalry match. 

6 changes from the team that lost at home to Houston. Zac McMath gets the start over Gavin Beavers, who will probably not start after allowing 3 goals at home. Vera is back into the side, and Braian Ojeda starts for rotation purposes. Same with Andrew Brody and Rubio Rubin. Diego Luna has been a revelation so far in 2023, and he gets his spot in the lineup back. This is a game that will test RSL’s new depth. 

The Timbers, meanwhile, continue to slump. There were some good takeaways from the loss to Vancouver, but a loss is still a loss. Miles Joseph talked about how the team was in a good place during his Tuesday press conference. I don’t know how good of a place you can be in following the fourth consecutive defeat in all competitions, but I’ll take Joseph at his word here. Portland has faced RSL twice in 2023, and didn’t win in either match. The Open Cup match featured a ton of goals and a loss, while the league game in Salt Lake City saw a lengthy weather delay that was more entertaining than the actual match. I’ve heavily criticized the Timbers’ road form, but it’s time to dig deeper into their home woes. You don’t get to 12th in the table just by being awful on the road. 5-3-4 at home with a goal differential of +4. Despite some sensational wins like the 3-2 over Columbus or the 4-1 dismantling of Seattle, the Timbers have largely failed to use their home field advantage in 2023. If you include the Leagues Cup match against Tigres, there have been four home matches in which the Timbers gave up the eventual winner in the 75th minute or later. Yes, we’re used to this team doing things of that nature, but it’s still incredibly frustrating each time it happens. With 5 of their remaining 9 fixtures at home, the Timbers have to win every single one if there is still a goal of making the playoffs. 

Santiago Moreno is fully off the injury report, and there are no new names to add. However, the Saturday trip to Seattle is still hanging over this game. How much will the Timbers rotate?

The answer: probably not that much. They really can’t afford to rotate that much. Under normal circumstances, this might be a game where Bryan Acosta might be able to start for Diego Chara and play for 60 minutes. But this is desperation time. The only realistic changes I can see occurring for Wednesday are Eric Miller replacing Juan Mosquera, Ivacic replacing Bingham, and Santiago Moreno making his return to the starting lineup. I saw several calls from Timbers fans to bench Evander, and I just have one question in response: why? He was brought in to be THE guy, and this team gains nothing by benching him. I would like to see him substituted at some point to keep him fresh for Seattle, and Blanco seems like the logical replacement. Bravo is an interesting case. You could argue that he deserves a rest more than Mosquera, but there isn’t a player behind him on the depth chart who could step in immediately. I know Eric Miller can play both right and left back, but he’s a lot weaker on the left side. He could sub out for Miguel Araujo so the Timbers can try a back three, but I doubt that Joseph would try a tactical switch during a short week. There’s also another thing that deserves mentioning: the striker competition. Felipe Mora has slowly been working his way back to full health, and now he is actively competing with Franck Boli for the starting spot. I think Boli gets the start on Wednesday as a rotation option while Felipe gets about 20-30 minutes off the bench. 2 starting-quality strikers is a good problem to have so it will be interesting how Joseph handles it. Either way, I don’t like the 4-3-3, but I doubt it changes. Let’s see how close this lineup is to the one the Timbers roll out tomorrow. 

After a couple matches without a tactical preview, I finally have some legit X’s and O’s to talk about. Let’s begin with the midfield. Evander, Paredes, and Diego are a strong group on paper. However, I am still worried about Paredes’ effectiveness in the 4-3-3. This can be solved by ignoring the midfield in the buildup phase. I think Dairon Asprilla is incredibly useful in long-ball buildup because he is very good at winning headers. This can set up situations where he can flick on headers to Paredes so the Timbers can begin their attacks on the front foot in enemy territory. How likely is this? Honestly, not that much. The Timbers have been slow in possession this year, and that pace slows to a crawl when they’re trying to build up an attack. In addition, they often lose the ball in the midfield which immediately springs counterattacks from opposition teams. This problem is exacerbated by the fullbacks pinching in to help with the buildup, which leaves the flanks exposed. Let’s look at that Tigres equalizer from the second Leagues Cup game. Evander loses the ball in the midfield after being swarmed, and suddenly the whole field is open for Andre-Pierre Gignac to attack into. Evander is tasked with dropping deep to help with buildup. However, it’s an obvious press trigger. Since the counterattacks still refuse to result in quality chances, buildup is even more important. That’s why Paredes needs to drop deeper to help with buildup. If the Timbers turn it over, he’s already closer to the backline, and he can help defend from a better spot on the field. A few more long balls for the wingers to run on to wouldn’t be a bad idea either. Most long passes look to find a player rather than send him on a run. Those types of balls can stretch opposition defenses. Boli, in particular, could benefit greatly from this type of over-the-top delivery. But the Timbers never try those types of balls to anyone, much less their striker. All it takes is one player picking his head up and deciding to play it. I would rather the ball be hit with too much juice and the keeper having to scramble to pick it up than watch whatever the Timbers are currently trying (and failing) to do. Now let’s move on to the wings. Sebastian Blanco is back to being a winger, and part of being a winger is staying wide. Antony made his debut against Vancouver and stayed wide as well. If the wingers continue to pinch inside, suddenly there’s no space and there’s no runs opening up any other space. I remember my playing days in high school (I was terrible) but I still listened to every bit of information that the coaches told me. “Once you make a pass, move.” The Timbers need to be doing more of that in the final third. They can’t keep beating themselves by ignoring the space they could be creating. All it takes is good vision and timing. These are the areas I’m looking for improvement in during this RSL game. 

Steve Cangialosi is on the call for tomorrow’s match. What should Timbers fans expect from this game? Well, I’m going into it with no expectations. I’m genuinely interested in what the rest of the season is going to look like. I previously compared this week of matches to a Jimmy John’s sandwich. Now we’re looking at a disgusting slice of turkey after failing to finish eating a slice of bread. The Timbers have to eat the turkey. There’s no excuse. Although I am not expecting a win, the team needs it in order to climb the standings so their playoff miss looks a lot more respectable (I’m joking I’M JOKING). Miles Joseph still has a job to do, and it’s a tough one. Just one win could be a catalyst for the rest of the season, and RSL is also in a tough spot. While many have shut the door on the season already, the players haven’t. They can’t and they won’t.

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