Portland Timbers-San Jose Earthquakes Preview (9/19)

Somehow, there are only 5 matches left in the 2023 season for the Portland Timbers. For their final midweek match of the season, the Timbers are hosting the San Jose Earthquakes on Wednesday night (7:30 PM, NOT FREE on Apple TV). With Decision Day getting ever closer, both teams are desperately needing a win.

San Jose are currently in a playoff spot (7th to be specific) but their standing isn’t safe by any means. Last weekend, they scored twice in the opening 15 minutes against RSL and then held on for dear life to get their first win since August 20th. Portland and San Jose have already played each other twice this season; once in the league and once in Leagues Cup. Let’s start with the MLS match on June 17th. This was a winnable game for Portland, but they couldn’t finish their chances. Most of those chances came on the counterattack, and even in possession the Timbers’ attack was pitiful. They were far too narrow and couldn’t take advantage of the absences San Jose had in the backline (Tanner Beason, a center back, was playing left back). That was also in the middle of the Timbers’ defensive renaissance, when they were clamping down on opposing teams and refusing to let them shoot. That was months ago, however. Time to revisit the Leagues Cup victory. The Timbers grabbed the lead from an Evander banger (which was against the run of play) and then fully took control in the second half. Felipe Mora scored his first goal following his return from injury and the Timbers won 2-0. Across both games, San Jose have only had 5 shots on goal. That illustrates their biggest weakness in 2023: getting shots on goal. They rank 27th out of 29 teams in shots on target per game (3.3). The numbers also tell us they are having trouble locking down opposing attacks. Their total xG conceded in 2023 is the highest number in the league (45.8). However, they have only conceded 37 times in MLS play this season. Having an elite goalkeeper can cover up a lot of weakness, and that’s exactly what the Quakes have. If the season ended right now, Daniel would have my vote for Goalkeeper of the Year. He is more instrumental to the Quakes success than any other player except Cristian Espinoza. Espinoza continues to build his MVP case with 12 goals and 7 assists. Their front three is still dangerous. Cade Cowell is not showing up on the stat sheet, but his ridiculous pace still keeps defenses honest. They also added Ayo Akinola on loan in the summer, but he hasn’t seen more than 25 minutes in a single match yet. I think I should give an Ebobisse update. He’s still playing very well, but he isn’t scoring at the rate he was last season. He only has 9 goals, which is half of his 2022 tally. None of those goals have been scored against the Portland Timbers, so I’m personally rooting for him to continue his respect for the franchise that drafted him. He came so close in the June 17th match, but his perfectly struck free kick hit the crossbar with the fury of a thousand waves. Is there another member of the San Jose forward line that I’m forgetting about? *scrolls roster* WAIT THEY HAVE MATTHEW HOPPE? He’s only played in two matches back in August and has been riding the bench all of September. Maybe we’ll see him? Carlos Gruezo and Jackson Yueill form a solid midfield pivot. Rodrigues and Tanner Beason are a good CB pairing. When you look at this Quakes roster, it feels like they should be comfortably towards the top of the table. But they’re underperforming, and that’s good news for the Timbers.

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In order to figure out how the Quakes will line up, we need to look at their schedule. They are hosting Nashville on Saturday, and they didn’t rotate that much against RSL. Espinoza, Yueill, and their entire backline played the full 90. The only availability question mark they have is Paul Skahan, and both Gruezo and Beason will return to the side fully rested after missing the RSL match due to suspension. With those notes, here’s my prediction for the Quakes XI tomorrow night:

Some rotation, but not a lot of it. Besides Beason and Gruezo’s returns, there are a lot of similarities to the team that beat RSL on Saturday night. Players to watch off the bench are fullbacks Tommy Thompson and Paul Marie, as well as Ayo Akinola and midfielder Judson. This is a match-winning XI for the Quakes.

Have you heard the Good News? The Timbers are back in playoff position! Following their massive victory in Austin, they only had two days to recover before the next matchday. Nice job making a good schedule. However, the Timbers enter this short week with plenty of momentum. Their current run sits at 4 matches unbeaten, with the last two being wins. The biggest question is whether or not they can keep up this hot streak on such a short week.

There are no changes to the injury report for Wednesday’s match. In Tuesday’s press conference, Miles Joseph said that there would be some rotation. I’m going to try my best to figure out where that rotation will take place.

Let’s start by mentioning the undroppables. David Bingham, Evander, Dario Zuparic, and Zac McGraw are the most obvious ones. Bingham is the starter by default, and he’s facing his former team again. He’s kept two clean sheets against them already this season and he’s definitely going to want another one. Considering this is going to be a tougher matchup than the Colorado game on Saturday, it makes sense to play the same CB pairing. Especially given how good Zuparic and McGraw (their nickname is ZZ Stop, thank you u/db0606 on Reddit) have been. Evander can’t be dropped, but he could be on a minutes restriction just for rest’s sake. Felipe Mora and Santiago Moreno also fall into the undroppable category. Same with Cristhian Paredes, but if there were other midfielders available (maybe Noel Caliskan?) I would be OK with him coming off the bench for this one. Moreno in particular could start this one on the bench, but I think it’s more likely that he starts and only plays about 60-70 minutes. Bryan Acosta makes his second Timbers start in his natural position. Claudio Bravo could be replaced by Eric Miller, but Bravo has locked down Cristian Espinoza in the two prior meetings between Portland and San Jose this season. He has to start. Mosquera re-enters the starting lineup for both tactical and rotation reasons. The bombshell would be an Antony start. I think it would make sense for both tactical and rotation reasons, but Yimmi Chara could also start again. I do not expect Dairon Asprilla to start tomorrow night. He was the only attacker to play every single minute in Austin, but he will definitely make an appearance off the bench. We all know what he can do to the San Jose Earthquakes at Providence Park. Chaos will reign for part of the second half, but not to start this game. Antony has been working hard behind the scenes (according to Joseph) and could be in line for his first start tomorrow. Let’s see what he can do.

Eric Miller has started the past two games at right back, and the Timbers have won both. But even if Miller was fully rested, Mosquera needs to start tomorrow night. Cade Cowell’s best skill is his speed, and Mosquera is fast. There are still some concerns with him defensively, but he should be ready for the challenge of Cowell’s pace. Bryan Acosta seems destined to start this game, and he hasn’t started a home game yet. He hasn’t been impressive since he joined, but there is reason to believe he can have a solid game tomorrow. Paredes filled in excellently for Diego Chara in Austin, but I think he’s going to play farther up the pitch in this one. If I was to pick one thing the Timbers need to do in order to win, the answer is rather simple: shoot the ball. Daniel has been incredible this season, but the Quakes’ backline is still leaking chances. With this match at Providence Park, the Timbers won’t need any time to take charge. The earlier they can take control the better. Miles Joseph’s Timbers haven’t been lacking in the scoring department (10 goals in 5 games) and their confidence should stay high with their supporters cheering them on. Throw-ins are becoming attacking set pieces under Joseph. Miller’s long throws won’t be present in this one, but the Timbers need to keep that in the gameplan. McGraw has been getting forward in those situations, and he provides flicked-on headers to the back post. Joseph just needs to find someone who can deliver a long throw like Miller can. Felipe Mora deserves a mention of his own. He’s constantly looking to open space and he leads the line incredibly well. I think he scores again tomorrow night. 

The Timbers are now above the playoff line, and even if they win tomorrow they’re going to need some help. Here’s a rooting guide for the full slate of MLS matches tomorrow.

There is no way that the Timbers can jump the Quakes tomorrow with a win. But the other games involving Western Conference teams still matter (except Seattle’s visit to Commerce City, a Rapids win would be hilarious but we play them on Saturday so I don’t want them to have a semblance of momentum). It would be excellent if the Red Bulls, Nashville, and the Galaxy won tomorrow. Draws in Houston and Salt Lake City would also be good for us. I think the Galaxy will find a way to sneak into the playoffs so I don’t mind them winning. A Minnesota win is a lot more concerning. It would also be really funny to STL to trick LAFC into getting another back-pass goal. That game isn’t important for our playoff chances, but we have won in St. Louis already this season. A road to MLS Cup through CITYPark is much more favorable than one through Banc of California Stadium (yes they changed the name but who cares). This is the best part of the season, especially with the league parity-ing super hard in 2023. Implications litter the schedule up until Decision Day.

This Wednesday match will be tougher than the Saturday match, but it’s MLS. No team is an easy out. For the first time in 2023, the Timbers have a winning streak. Their opponent is a team that they’ve already beaten at home and has the same number of road wins as the Timbers (2). Take care of business and keep the momentum rolling into Saturday.

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