Portland Timbers-San Jose Earthquakes Preview (5/15)

There is no time for the Timbers to lick their wounds from last Sunday. It’s time for another home game, and one that the Timbers are very familiar with.

The Quakes Report

The Vancouver Whitecaps and the Seattle Sounders have been in existence for 50 years. Both of those teams have gotten a lot of publicity for their golden anniversary, but they are not alone. The San Jose Earthquakes are also celebrating their 50th anniversary in 2024, but if you look at the table it would be impossible to tell. 

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The Quakes (3-1-8, 10 points, 13W/26S) are similar to the Timbers in many aspects. Both teams are relatively decent in attack, but very poor defensively. To begin 2024, San Jose won only one out of their first 10 matches. That victory was a 3-2 win at home against Seattle. However, they are unbeaten in their last 3 MLS matches. A 1-1 draw in Nashville is a solid result, but then they beat LAFC 3-1 the following week. Last weekend, they traveled to Colorado and beat the Rapids 3-2. During this 3-match unbeaten streak, the Quakes have been out-possessed by a significant margin. But it doesn’t matter how much you have the ball, only what you can do with it. In these last two wins against Western Conference opposition, San Jose has only been able to muster 7 combined shots on target. But 6 of those shots have gone into the back of the net. Here’s where the Timbers comparisons really begin to come into play.

San Jose is overperforming their expected goals, but there is a lot of attacking talent on this team. Cristian Espinoza was playing like a MVP candidate for most of 2023, and his blistering form has carried over to 2024. He leads the team with 7 assists, and has also scored 2 goals. 11 different Quakes players have scored goals this season. The two top scorers are new signing Amahl Pellegrino and Jeremy Ebobisse, each with 3. Six of their 20 goals have come in the last two games, and there’s a good reason for that. All offseason, it became clear that the Earthquakes needed to find a DP-level number 10. They have one of the better youth academies in MLS, but they needed someone who could make an instant impact. On the final day of the transfer window, Hernan Lopez arrived from Godoy Cruz for a club-record fee of $5.5 million. The Argentine has played in the last two games, and scored his first goal for the club in the victory against Colorado. San Jose has excelled at creating shots from dead-ball situations. With so much attacking talent to lean on, all they have to worry about is getting the ball into the penalty area. 

But there’s a reason why the Quakes are just above the Timbers at the bottom of the Western Conference table. San Jose has allowed the most goals in MLS so far in 2024. Like the Timbers, they are among the league-leaders in tackles won in the final third. Like the Timbers, there is some good defensive talent on this team. But unlike the Timbers, they do not have good goalkeeping. Daniel was one of the top goalkeepers in MLS last season, but had a horrific start to 2024 before getting injured. San Jose’s normal backup JT Marcinkowski (the man who Dairon Zlatan’d) is also hurt. So offseason acquisition William Yarbrough has started the last 8 games. Just like Portland, the Quakes have not kept a clean sheet this season. But their attack is much more sustainable than Portland’s. Last season, the Quakes were a playoff team. They became the first 9 seed in the Western Conference to qualify, but lost to SKC in the Wild Card game. The 2023 Earthquakes weren’t too inspiring in the attacking end, but they could rely on Daniel to keep games close. In the offseason, they added some proven attacking talent, but now the goalkeeping has regressed. But they’re starting to dig themselves out of their early-season slump, and they are entering tomorrow’s match in excellent form.

Daniel Britto, JT Marcinkowski, and Jamar Ricketts are all out. All of those players are backups.

All of these players except Morales and Beason started on Saturday. Head coach Luchi Gonzalez will be looking to keep this run going, so I’m not expecting too many changes. That front four of Pellegrino, Lopez, Espinoza, and Ebobisse is excellent. Costa is the replacement for departed left back Miguel Trauco and he assisted two goals against Colorado. Jackson Yueill could start ahead of Morales, but the latter is better defensively. Players to watch off the bench include Niko Tsakiris, Jack Skahan, Benji Kikanovic, and Preston Judd. With an actual 10 in this team, the Quakes are a lot more dangerous.

The Timbers Report

Good God. The Timbers have made history. 9 matches in a row without a win is a Timbers record. But there is no time to lick their wounds from a very dull loss to Seattle. On Tuesday, Phil Neville said that the best cure to a gutting loss is the opportunity to take the field a few days later. But is the rest of the team listening?

There were a couple of good things to take away from the Seattle clunker, and one of them is the center back partnership of Kamal Miller and Dario Zuparic. Neville complimented both players on Tuesday and stated that there is still plenty of competition for starting spots. He also mentioned that there needed to be some more consistency in that area of the pitch. This got me thinking, and now there’s a question forming in my mind: have we seen the best possible Timbers XI yet?

Portland has primarily stuck to a 4-2-3-1 under Neville, except for the 4-4-2 shape the team used against the Sounders. After a pretty hot start on the attacking end, the goals are starting to dry up. I asked Neville about the attack, and he responded like this: “The last two games are the first time we haven’t had goals or looked like scoring. We’re not worried about that because we’ve scored a lot of goals this year.”

Yes, the Timbers have been ruthless in front of the net for most of 2024 so far. But the offensive regression over the past two weeks is definitely the team coming back to Earth. There is still very little imagination in the attacking third outside of Evander, and he’s still working his way back from the mystery leg injury that kept him out for two games. The personnel on the field should be able to do better, but is it time to move some pieces around?

The Timbers were not fully committed to the 4-2-3-1 in preseason. They used a back three in the first preseason game against NYCFC. Right now, the wings are holding this team back. Antony is having a poor stretch, and Moreno is a turnover machine. Neville cannot afford to be stubborn at this point in the season, and especially with this San Jose team visiting Providence Park tomorrow. Portland (2-4-6, 10 points, 14W/27S) is about to play the 2nd-worst team in the West. And it is a team that they have historically dominated. Portland is 17-10-6 against San Jose across all competitions in the MLS era, including a 13-4-0 record at home. A 10th consecutive game without a win would be unheard of. The Timbers have to win tomorrow.

The injury report continues to lengthen. Miguel Araujo, Claudio Bravo, and Marvin Loria remain out. There are two new additions in Kamal Miller and Dairon Asprilla, but both are officially listed as questionable with leg injuries.

Do I like this? No, I do not. But my job is to predict, and this is my prediction. If Kamal can’t start, then I expect either Larrys Mabiala or Zac McGraw to replace him. My gut is telling me Mabiala while my brain says McGraw. Bravo’s injury clears the way for Eric Miller to make another start at left back, which means that Juan Mosquera will start at right back. After the loss to Charlotte, Neville said that he was only going to start players who he could trust. Zuparic was the only actual change made due to Bravo’s injury. After the loss to Seattle, Neville parroted his speech from the Charlotte game. Before the Seattle game, Neville said that everyone was healthy. Then he reversed course and said that Evander was both “a major, major doubt” and “50-50” in the span of a minute during the pre-match press conference. Bravo and Araujo were listed on the injury report, and Evander was off the report. Basically, I’m not expecting any major lineup changes aside from ones that are forced due to injury. But I do like Rodriguez and Mora starting together up top. Evander should be able to start, but Asprilla’s questionable status leaves the team with no viable left wing-back. So Evander will have to slide back a line and play as an 8. Do I think it will be a problem? I haven’t made up my mind yet. But at least he’ll be healthy enough to play, and he can be the difference between a draw and a win.

Tactical Preview

Get Stuck In

In order to reverse this winless streak, the Timbers will have to defend every blade of grass. It’s simply too easy to progress the ball against this team so every player will have to defend. Felipe Mora has been active in the press, but he needs the other attackers to join him. This is a mentality problem and a tactical problem that the Timbers need to solve. Portland needs to be ready to defend and they need to be organized in defense. Luckily, the 4-4-2 is a naturally defensive formation. But they have to defend their home turf in order to break this winless streak.

Final Thoughts

Referee Report

Pierre-Luc Lauziere will be the center ref tomorrow. He has never refereed a Portland-San Jose match before. All stats courtesy of @MLSRefStats on Twitter.

Three Points

Just win this game. San Jose and Portland occupy the bottom two spots in the Western Conference and both teams will be hungry for all three points. I don’t have anything else to say. The Timbers have a golden opportunity to stop the free fall. Just win this game.

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