Portland Timbers-Seattle Sounders Preview (4/15)

Y’all know what week it is.

On the first day of Creation, God created the Seattle Sounders. They went on to invent everything in the modern world. Of course, that isn’t true, but it’s the attitude of the team up north. And given their trophy cabinet, you can forgive their supporters (no, you can’t) for thinking that way. There is a reason many pundits league-wide see the Seattle Sounders as the shining beacon of MLS success. Nevermind the fact that it took them eight years to win their first MLS Cup, or that their shiny former number 2 had his transfer fee covered by the league. You might have also forgotten that it took Portland only five years to win their first MLS Cup. Don’t worry, I would love to jog your memory. You might also remember 2013 and 2018, the only two years these two clubs met in the postseason. Both matchups ended with Seattle exits, most notably in 2018 after the second leg of the Western Conference semifinal went to penalties. There is something so special about ending your rival’s season on their home turf. That turf didn’t forget November 8th, 2018. It would rather sit and be patient, waiting for the perfect moment to exact its revenge. In this way, Seattle did in fact invent something. It invented sentient Astroturf. In 2020, Sebastian Blanco went down on the Lumen Field turf clutching his knee. He had torn his ACL. But the turf wasn’t done yet. Not even a full year later, Eryk Williamson tore his ACL on the Lumen Field turf. The Timbers won that game, and haven’t lost to Seattle since. There were only two Portland-Seattle games last year. The first took place on July 9th. But once again, Seattle had to remind the world that they once again had invented something. Two months earlier, they became the first MLS side to win the CONCACAF Champions League. Now, here’s where the fun part comes in. Since their historic trophy lift on May 4th, they had SIX home games before the Timbers came to town on July 9th. To really rub it in, they decided not to have their banner-raising ceremony (and de-facto CCL triumph party) until their rivals were in the building to witness it. And boy, did they go all out. Noted purveyor of background noise Drew Carey gave a speech on the field. Navy paratroopers descended from above the field carrying a rippling “CHAMPIONS” banner. The Emerald City Supporters unveiled a massive tifo, with the words “The Greatest Team You’ve Ever Seen” brandished so the whole world could see how Seattle invented making massive tifos. With all the disrespect thrown in their faces, the Timbers responded with their biggest road win of the season. After proclaiming to the entire world how great they were, the men in Rave Green lost 3-0 at home. But there was a reverse fixture, played in Portland a month and a half later. August 26, 2022 began with a Shining tifo and an early Sounders lead. It ended with a comeback victory, and the Timbers hoisting the Cascadia Cup. That’s the beauty of this rivalry. Through the NASL days and into MLS, the hate has never died. It might also surprise you that the Timbers lead the head-to-head matchup in this series, with a 17-7-14 advantage since both teams entered MLS. Therefore, most importantly, Seattle invented losing to Portland. 

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But, despite all of that, Seattle is still Seattle. They are currently top of the Western Conference with a 5-1-1 record, and are tied for second in the Supporters’ Shield race with 16 points. You can talk about their silly little trophy they won last year, but the reality is they missed the playoffs. Sounders fans would like to chalk up their playoff miss to midfielder Joao Paolo’s season ending ACL tear, but they were woeful around the opponent’s penalty box last year. Six games into 2023, all of those woes are seemingly gone. Jordan Morris has done a world-class job of stat-padding and leads all of MLS with 8 goals. Because of his vengeful scoring outburst, Raul Ruidiaz has been benched so Morris can get more time up top. That has opened the door for U22 signing Leo Chu to take Morris’ old spot on the left wing. The two have already shown significant chemistry, with Chu’s team-leading 4 assists all finished by Morris. Defensively, they have been solid. Across four matches, they have only conceded 7.1 xG, and are 3rd in MLS with 12 tackles per game. You might want to credit that success to stalwart CB Yeimar Gomez Andrade, but it’s his new partner Jackson Ragen who is filling in admirably for the out-of-favor Xavier Arreaga. Nouhou Tolo continues to be one of the best pure defenders in the league, while Alex Roldan continues to annoy me, so that means he’s still doing a great job of pushing up on the right side of the pitch. The midfield is at least 2 deep, with Paolo and Albert Rusnak ahead of youngsters Josh Atencio and Obed Vargas. What makes the Sounders the Sounders is their quality depth via their youth. Coach Brian Schmetzer trusts his young players to fill in whenever they’re needed. And I have to hand it to their organization for that. 

The biggest question mark for Seattle this week is the status of the aforementioned Joao Paolo. He didn’t make the matchday squad last weekend due to a hamstring injury. However, he has made the matchday squad for the short trip south. Kelyn Rowe is on a questionable tag, while Dylan Teves is out. Josh Atencio is a late omission to the Sounders’ squad this weekend, which is rather unfortunate for a young player who just had his Sergio Dipp (HAVING THE TIME OF HIS LIFE) game last weekend. Albert Rusnak is also dealing with some soreness, but will travel. There are two possible avenues for Schmetzer to choose for his starting XI. One thing will be the same for both of them, and it is the backline. Stefan Frei will start in goal, with Alex Roldan, Ragen, Yeimar, and Nouhou as the back four. Schmetzer loves the 4-2-3-1, and his double pivot will consist of Joao Paolo and Obed Vargas, now that Paolo is fully off the injury list.   The two avenues he has to choose from are related to the front four. Nico Lodeiro and Cristian Roldan will start at CAM and RW, respectively. But Schmetzer will have to choose between Morris and Ruidiaz up top. Signs are pointing to Morris starting up top again, with Chu on the left. Ruidiaz hasn’t been fully healthy yet, and he is still a dangerous weapon off the bench. That leaves the Sounders with a full-ish bench and all the momentum heading into the Rose City. 

Things are different farther south. The Timbers (1-2-4, 5 points) lost their first Cascadia Cup game last weekend in Vancouver, and Eryk Williamson will not return this season after a shock ACL injury required surgery. This is not the knee that got hurt in 2021, but current muscle chipmunk Jordan Morris tore his ACLs in both legs and has recovered. There is a precedent to a full recovery, but I just feel bad for a guy who was playing himself into representing the USA at the Gold Cup this summer. 2 serious knee injuries in 3 years has to be mentally and emotionally devastating, and I’m just hoping he stays in a positive headspace. Nevertheless, the Timbers must persist. In terms of cover for Williamson’s absence, Cristhian Paredes and David Ayala have been training in full this week. Same with Marvin Loria. Paredes, Ayala, and Loria do not carry an injury diagnosis, but I would say Loria is closer to questionable than a full green light to play. Felipe Mora and Sebastian Blanco are both confirmed out, with Blanco’s locker room presence being especially crucial this week. Both Yimmi Chara and David Bingham will also miss this match, but both were training this week. Based on my own personal training observations, Yimmi in particular looks about a week away from a return to the pitch. 

Portland has their shortest injury report of the season this week. The question remains who will see the field. Some players are Sharpied into the team sheet. Aljaz Ivacic, Juan Mosquera, Zac McGraw, Diego Chara, and Santiago Moreno will all definitely start. I did not include Dario Zuparic in that list, just because I have a gut feeling we might see Larrys Mabiala. Mabiala always shows up in big games, and had his best game against Seattle last year. Dropping Zuparic for him seems like madness, but this isn’t a normal week. Maybe a back five could be in play again. Mosquera could play on the wing or at right back, but I can’t positively say where. Claudio Bravo was also training in full this week, and he should start at left back, but he’s not a Sharpie because of injury precaution. Paredes and Ayala will play, but I’m not 100% sure on who starts besides Diego Chara. My gut says Paredes, but that’s also assuming he’s healthy enough to start in his first match back since leaving early on March 11th against St. Louis. Evander should start, given his successful return to action against Vancouver last week. Moreno’s position in the front line is unclear, but he should still be getting the start. That leaves the striker position. If there is one striker, I would expect Dairon Asprilla to move onto the wing and Jaroslaw Niezgoda getting the start. Do not despair for Franck Boli. He will make his home debut this week. It is unclear whether or not it will come off the bench or as a starter. 

Tactically, both teams will be in their comfort zone. Seattle wants the ball, and Portland is very comfortable without it. The Sounders love to use long diagonal switches to shift the opposing defense out to one wing, then they’ll send the ball back across the pitch to an unmarked player to deliver the final ball into the box. Positioning will be key for Portland to limit free chances for Seattle. The high “press” that Portland has been playing so far this year isn’t built on intensity, but positioning. Forcing Seattle to play those wide balls and keeping their positions will be critical. With the limited depth in the center of the park, it will be hard to keep Seattle out of the middle. However, all three healthy midfielders are very competent defensively. Speaking of free chances, Seattle gets rebounds like a NBA team. Clearances must be full clearances rather than ineffective swipes at the ball. This applies to both set pieces and open play. Seattle’s lone goal against Portland last year came from a creatively designed set piece, so expect Schmetzer to have a few special training-ground style set piece plays at his disposal. Attacking-wise, this would be a fantastic time for Evander to break out. The flashes we have seen so far are definitely legit, and now he has the best supporting cast he has had all year. His presence will already be a positive on attacking set pieces, and the speed around him could awaken Portland’s counterattack. In possession, chemistry will be crucial to any attacking success. Quick, one-touch passes have worked against Seattle in the past and as long as players are moving around the Timbers will be hard to keep track of. Seattle’s defensive quality will be tough opposition, but this is a fixture that brings the best out of certain players. Niezgoda in particular had his best performance of the season at Lumen last year. Individual brilliance usually falls in Blanco’s category, which is why there will be significant pressure on Evander to create and finish on Saturday night. This will be a battle of two teams playing their preferred style, so execution on the fundamentals will be critical.

There is one other facet of this match that deserves a closer look, and it is the jersey selection. Portland have elected to wear their Heritage Rose kits, while Seattle are countering with their ugly dragon jerseys. That means two teams whose main colors are green and not-green are wearing some version of red on Saturday night. To make matters worse, Seattle have black shorts that goes with their hideous dragon jerseys. That means that Portland will likely be wearing my least favorite uniform combo against their biggest rivals: rose kit with white shorts. The rose kit is very polarizing, but I am a fan of it. Especially when the rose-colored (or maroon, I didn’t go to art school) shorts are paired with it. The white shorts are OK, I guess, but they’re just really boring. It is easy to point fingers at Portland for not wearing their green jerseys, but I have become convinced they have no other choice. The Seattle Sounders are notorious for ugly and unpalatable change kits (Jimi Hendrix is an exception, such a shame we didn’t see full rose vs. Hendrix last year). Their kit design reached a point where they forced the Timbers to wear white shorts at home with their green tops while Seattle got their full home kit (not-green shirt, blue shorts). I realize this is a bit petty, but I will not stand by while Seattle commits uniform terrorism and doesn’t get punished for it. Their lack of quality change kit design is the biggest argument for MLS to reintroduce third kits so this horrific uniform matchup doesn’t exist. Keep in mind, Seattle has already been part of a criminal kit matchup already this year. Their match against LAFC featured their full ugly dragon kit against LAFC’s booger-colored change kit. But there is a proper way to remedy this kit matchup. Seattle have worn not-green shorts with their not-green kit away in Cincinnati this year, and the light vs. dark contrast between their color crime and Portland’s clean plaid kit should be enough. I don’t know if the league is to blame for demanding such an ugly kit matchup, but at least one team should be wearing green. 

The one thing I do know is Giovanni Savarese’s passion for putting Seattle in a bodybag. In Thursday’s press conference, the Timbers’ manager was in an excited mood. “We don’t want them [Seattle] to succeed. These games are more than just 3 points.” He went on to explain how a win could provide a boost to the team’s floundering (groan) campaign: “This is a match that can turn our season around.” Winning this match, however, will be historic. Since the MLS chapter in this storied rivalry began, neither Seattle or Portland has ever won four straight matches in the series. Recent form is not on the Timbers’ side, but this is no ordinary game. Throw all the predictions and previous games out the window. Savarese has spent the week teaching his players how to fish. Whether they will catch and eat the fish is still to be determined, but the Timbers have a point to prove. All I’m gonna say is a rainy Portland night definitely calls for some flounder soup. 

This week’s match kicks off at 7:30 (7:38) PM. It will be televised on MLS Season Pass on Apple TV, but it is not a free game. A subscription will be required to watch it. Thank you for reading and let’s gut some fish. 

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