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Portland Timbers-Seattle Sounders Preview (8/31)

Both teams have seen an uptick in form since their last meeting, but form doesn't matter whenever they play each other.

Y’all know what week it is.

The Sounders Report

It has been 3 and a half months since the Seattle Sounders defeated the Portland Timbers 2-1 at Providence Park. Both teams were sitting in the basement of the Western Conference and the Sounders’ victory pushed the Timbers to the very bottom of the table. Two very preventable goals and a complete lack of killer instinct from the hosts allowed their biggest rivals to celebrate a huge victory on their home field. Well, since plenty of time has passed since that game, have the Seattle Sounders been able to turn around their early-season malaise?

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To the surprise of no one, they have. The Seattle Sounders have gone 8-3-3 in MLS play since that game. However, there is a massive asterisk to this sudden change of form. 8 of those 14 games were at Lumen Field, and the Sounders didn’t look particularly impressive in some of them. It took 2 penalty kicks for them to dispatch the Chicago Fire and they allowed a late equalizer against RSL. As they were riding the crest of their wave right before Leagues Cup began, they hosted LAFC. The visitors thumped them 3-0. Their Leagues Cup journey was a very easy one. First they beat Minnesota 2-0 (needing some assistance from a Hassani Dotson red card to do so). Then they got thumped at home by Necaxa 3-1. That result was good enough for them to clinch a spot in the knockout stage by finishing second in their group. Because Leagues Cup is not a serious competition (it desperately wants to be but it refuses to behave normally) the Sounders were able to host their Round of 32 game against the LA Galaxy. The Sounders responded to this injustice by scoring off of two corner kicks in the first 10 minutes and effectively killing the game with the majority left to play. Then Pumas came to town and the Sounders continued their dominance of the Mexican minnows by winning 4-0. However, their Quarterfinal matchup saw them host their 5th game in a row during the tournament. The opponent was LAFC, and the Black-and-Gold repeated the same result that they had achieved one month earlier. The Sounders were out of Leagues Cup, but they returned to MLS play with a 3-2 victory against a struggling Minnesota team. Another grudge match awaited them on Wednesday in the semifinal of the Open Cup. LAFC grabbed the win after Denis Bouanga slotted home a penalty kick. That penalty kick was awarded after another Sounders innovation: two handballs on the same shot. Seriously, guys, you don’t have to invent everything. Credit to the Sounders: they played their asses off. It just wasn’t enough. That result has continued to fan the flames of a dissatisfied Sounders fanbase.

Although their form has improved over the summer and the team has climbed up the standings (11-7-8, 40 points, 5W/9S), there is some trouble in paradise. For the 3rd summer in a row, the Seattle Sounders didn’t sign anyone. Technically they gave a first-team contract to Tacoma Defiance (their second team, to clarify) winger Georgi Minoungou but there was no activity in the transfer market. For Sounders fans, who expect this team to compete for trophies (delusional), this is unacceptable behavior. On top of that, many season-ticket holders will be seeing a sizable increase in price for their seats next season. The Sounders’ biggest move in the offseason was a $6M deal for Lanus winger Pedro de la Vega. The young Argentine hasn’t been able to make an impression yet because he is addicted to getting hurt. He seems to be on the mend, but his legs are ticking time bombs. When he has played, he has been largely ineffective. He scored a penalty on his debut but has done jack squat in every other game. It’s way too early to call him a bust. HOWEVER, availability is the best ability, and de la Vega is seriously lacking in that aspect.

Braudilio Rodrigues is the only player listed on Seattle’s injury report. He is questionable with a leg injury. However, the majority of their starters played the full 90 against LAFC on Wednesday. The only exceptions were Alex Roldan, Paul Rothrock, and Joao Paulo.

Due to the intense Open Cup loss on Wednesday, you might think that Brian Schmetzer would rotate for this game. However, it is once again my duty to remind you that Schmetzer is still possessed by the spirit of the ocean. I’m predicting only one change from the team that started against LAFC: de la Vega returning to the starting lineup for his first MLS start since July 20th. In that game, he only played 45 minutes before being subbed off at halftime. I expect him to be on a minutes restriction. Other than that, this lineup is pretty set in stone. I would like to highlight Rusnak in particular. He has been the team’s MVP this season and has 5g/10a in league play (6g/13a in all competitions). Morris has 14g/2a in all competitions but tends to lay an egg against the Timbers. In order for the Sounders to win this game, both of those players have to show up.

The Timbers Report

Since that loss to Seattle on May 12th, the Portland Timbers are 8-2-0 at Providence Park across all competitions. That glittering home form has allowed them to rise back up the table (10-7-9, 37 points, 7W/13S). Phil Neville credits the home supporters for the team’s excellent home record. “They aren’t just the 12th man, they’re the 14th man,” the head coach said on Thursday. That quote, whether he meant it or not, is a very good jab. While Lumen Field remains relatively empty on Sounders matchdays, the Timbers have been building a fortress at Providence Park. On May 12th, the Timbers’ winless streak increased to 9 games. Since that game, the Timbers have turned their fortunes around. But are they a different team?

I cannot positively say that they are. They are still finding ways to score goals, but their defensive issues weigh them down like an anchor. For example: the trio of Felipe Mora, Jonathan Rodriguez, and Evander have been outstanding this season. If Evander scores a goal tomorrow, it will be his 13th goal of the season. Rodriguez and Mora have already passed that mark, and it would make the 2024 Timbers the fourth team in MLS history to have 3 players with 13+ goals. The last team to do it was the 2022 Philadelphia Union, who almost won the Shield and lost to LAFC in MLS Cup. The 2000 New York MetroStars lost in 3 games in the Semifinals (equivalent to the Western Conference Final nowadays). Lastly, the 1998 LA Galaxy won the Shield but lost in the Western Conference Final to eventual Cup winners Chicago. Every other club with this level of attacking talent has been a title contender. Can the Portland Timbers contend with such a terrible defense? Probably not, but they can’t be ruled out due to the strength of the attack.

To make matters worse, Mora and Rodriguez are suspended for tomorrow’s game. The Uruguayan picked up a dubious yellow card against St. Louis and is suspended due to yellow card accumulation. Mora was controversially sent off in second half stoppage time and is suspended because of the red card. The situation around Mora’s red card has been, in a word, stupid. Because of an IFAB directive regarding contact to the head from a foot, Mora’s suspension has been increased from 1 game to 2 games. The Timbers, who were planning to appeal regardless of the increased suspension, have submitted one to the league office. However, it is currently 4 PM on Friday afternoon, and there has been no announcement from the MLS Disciplinary Committee. I believe the appeal will work, and Mora’s suspension will be reduced from 2 games to 1 game. He will still miss tomorrow’s match. Marvin Loria is still out, and Zac McGraw is questionable with a leg injury. Dario Zuparic and Evander are both on yellow card accumulation warnings.

First of all, the Timbers will be wearing their 3rd kits tomorrow. Second of all, this is the lineup that I THINK will begin tomorrow’s game. It isn’t bad, per se, but every single first-team attacker will be in the team from the start. With the departures of Nathan Fogaca and Dairon Asprilla during the offseason, the Timbers’ depth is suddenly absent for this crucial game. Here is what I WANT tomorrow’s starting lineup to be.

This is not an indictment of Antony by any means. Having him on the bench makes it possible for the Timbers to bring on a fresh attacker to chase the game if necessary. Given the quality of this lineup, chasing the game might not be necessary at all. The back three of Miller, Zuparic, and Araujo provide some defensive solidity and allows Bravo and Mosquera to get further forward. Both fullbacks will get forward in a back four, but now there’s an extra center back who can cover and give them more freedom in the attack. Araujo primarily played on the right side of a back three at his previous club and hasn’t had the opportunity to play there as a Timber. Evander and Moreno can operate as twin 10s underneath Toye. In terms of balance, this is the best XI the Timbers can start tomorrow. It’s going to be a hot one, and the Timbers will need some fresh legs in the attack as players get more and more tired. However, I don’t think it will happen, but I would be doing y’all a disservice if I didn’t mention it.

Tactical Preview

The First Goal

In their first meeting this season, the Timbers opened the scoring. The Sounders equalized, and Portland’s attack remained flaccid for the remainder of the game. Their defensive performance wasn’t bad, but both goals that they allowed were very preventable. In order to win this game, the Timbers have to score the first goal and stay on the front foot. They are prone to slow starts and asking this squad to perform another comeback would be a serious disservice. Despite the absences of Mora and Rodriguez, Portland’s attack is a very capable unit. Evander would be getting MVP votes if the team was higher up in the table, while Santiago Moreno has been a brilliant secondary option.

The Primary Option

Due to the suspensions, Moreno will have to perform like a primary option in this game. The Colombian has 7g/7a in all competitions this year, and this is the biggest game of the season for him. Ditto for Mason Toye. Although the newly-signed striker hasn’t been with the team for long, a good performance in this game could be a huge bullet point in negotiations for a new contract. If given the opportunity, I believe that Toye would love to stay in Portland. During the break after their elimination from Leagues Cup, he went to the Oregon Coast with his brother who lives in Corvallis. He’s only been here for a month and a half and has already passed the Damian Lillard Test. He will make his first start in a Timbers uniform against their biggest rivals. As someone who is a veteran of many Canadian Classiques and a particularly bitter high-school rivalry, he is no stranger to big games. Like Moreno, he will have to prove his worth in a big way during tomorrow’s game.

Mentality

This is a tactical preview, so why am I talking about mentality? Well, in their previous meeting, the Timbers didn’t show enough heart and will. Part of that can be attributed to their poor form and a lack of confidence, but this is a different team than the one that lost 2-1 on May 12th. Neville has constantly preached about this team’s mentality, and it can often be seen on set pieces. Although there are many tactical aspects that go into defending corner kicks or wide free kicks, it often comes down to who wants it more. Against St. Louis, the Timbers did not want it more. Now they are hosting their biggest rivals in a massive game before a two week break. In all aspects of this game, the Timbers just have to want it more.

Final Thoughts

Announcer Analytics

Timbers fans will be spoiled for choices. Jake Zivin and Taylor Twellman are will be on the English broadcast, Rodolfo Landeros and Diego Valeri will be on the Spanish broadcast, and the local radio broadcast from 750 The Game is another option on Apple TV. However, this game is NOT free on the streaming platform. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 PM PST.

Referee Report

Lukasz Szpala is the center referee for tomorrow’s match. He has not refereed a Timbers game in 2024 yet. Szpala has shown the most red cards out of any referee in MLS this season (9 reds in 14 games).

2024 stats: 14 games, 20.07 fouls/game, 0.29 penalties/game, 3.86 yellows/game, 0.64 reds/game

Cascadia Cup

The Timbers are technically still alive in the Cascadia Cup race, but will have to win all of their remaining games to bring the trophy back to Portland. Simple enough.

Final Whistle

The home team has won in only 4 of the last 20 meetings between Portland and Seattle. The Timbers still hold the historical advantage in MLS play with a 17-9-16 record. The rivalry is even on goal differential. Portland is 11-3-8 at home against the Sounders.