Portland Timbers Secondary Transfer Window Review

The summer transfer window has concluded, so it’s time to look at the business that the Timbers did. I’m also going to do a short preview of the coming offseason and what that means for the rest of 2023. 

Let’s start with the only player to leave the club.

Cascadia FC's Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Released

 Pablo Bonilla, RB

I didn’t do a full article on this transfer because it really didn’t need one. Bonilla had his chances since he arrived in 2020 and just couldn’t stake his claim to the right back spot. He had trouble defending and I have no problems with how this played out. I wish him the best in his continued career.

Grade: A

Arrivals

Miguel Araujo, CB (free transfer from FC Emmen (NED1))

Article: https://cascadiafc.substack.com/p/timbers-sign-cb-miguel-araujo

So far, Araujo has made two appearances for the Timbers off the bench resulting in a combined 10 minutes of game time. In those ten minutes, I was impressed with his distribution. I still think his future is on the right side of a back three, and that’s due to both the entrenched CB pairing and the best way to utilize him within the team. Nevertheless, his transfer was a great piece of business from Ned Grabavoy. It’s too early to give this a high grade, but I’m a fan of the early returns.

Grade: B

Bryan Acosta, CM (trade from Colorado Rapids, $150K 2023 GAM & $175K conditional 2024 GAM)

Article: https://cascadiafc.substack.com/p/timbers-trade-for-bryan-acosta\

Since Acosta hasn’t made an appearance yet, I can’t assign a full grade. He has already arrived in Portland and was present as an observer for Thursday’s training session. He should be in the team for the next match on August 20th in Houston. The extended break following the Leagues Cup exit should be good for him to integrate himself into the team. 

Grade: A for the business side, B+ for the player

Antony, Winger (U22 Initiative signing from FC Arouca ((POR1)), $3.2M fee)

Article: https://cascadiafc.substack.com/p/timbers-sign-antony

Like Juan Mosquera’s transfer last summer, it’s going to take a while for Antony to get here. Acquiring a visa is a hard process. I think that he should be able to contribute this season, but it won’t be for a while. But Antony is a player for the future. While I’m not a massive fan of him as a player at this moment in time, I’m encouraged by Grabavoy’s thought process in his pursuit of the player. He mentioned that the team was looking at a specific profile of player to bring in, and Antony matched that profile. Initial reports of this transfer suggested a fee of around $6 million would go to Arouca, but getting him for half that number is a good piece of business. Excellent work on this one, even if Antony isn’t going to make an instant impact.

Grade: B+ for the financial and scouting aspect, C for the player

Rejected Bids

Cristhian Paredes, CM ($2.2M bid from unknown Brazilian club)

There is no player on the Timbers’ roster who has had a better 2023 than Cristhian Paredes. After starting the season as a backup, he got injured 12 minutes into the first match against St. Louis. This kept him out for a month, but he saved his return for the 4-1 victory over Seattle. And boy, was his return needed. He still wasn’t starting, but injuries to Eryk Williamson and David Ayala brought him into the starting XI. He completely seized the opportunity. In the 16 matches since Ayala’s injury, Paredes has started 15. His tenacity in the midfield has turned their defense from a liability to a strength. The June 3rd Seattle match is the perfect example of that. He was everywhere breaking up passes, making key tackles, and applying pressure. He is absolutely key to the way the Timbers have been playing this season, and is my frontrunner for Player of the Season at this juncture. Given the Timbers’ lack of depth in central midfield, he was never going to leave this summer. I also think that $2.2 million dollars is way too low. When addressing this bid in a press conference, Ned Grabavoy said that the offer was very good for the team and player. This does beg the question about Paredes’ future in Portland. His contract doesn’t expire until December 2025. It is entirely possible that he leaves in the winter, but it’s too early to make a decision. I doubt that the Timbers could sell him for a fee above $2.2 million in the winter, but anything is possible because transfers are weird. However, rejecting that bid is a great move. He’s crucial to the team this season and there’s no way we could’ve found a like-for-like replacement in time. 

Grade: A

Overall Summer Window Grade: B+

This window was never going to be about bringing in stars. Strengthening the bench was the key focus. I think Ned Grabavoy did a really good job. I would’ve given an “A” if there were any immediate match-winners who came to the team, but a “B+” is perfect. The team got deeper and now the focus is on integrating the new faces. The team wanted to bring in a new CB, new CM, and a new winger. They added all three. Excellent work from the personnel department.

2023 Depth Chart

Notes: Niezgoda is CF3. Nathan Fogaca will be playing with T2 for the rest of the season. Antony will be the 3rd string LW when he arrives, but he hasn’t yet, so I didn’t list him. There was only one sub slot for each position. 

For the rest of the season, the Timbers now are 2-deep at every position. Of course, there are some drop-offs in quality from the starters to the bench, and some of the bench players could start. But this is a depth chart at this current moment with the end of the transfer window. Bottomline, this is a good squad. But there are massive decisions to be made in the winter.

A Look Ahead: Contracts

That is a lot of expiring contracts. There are two players here who I expect to leave: Niezgoda and Mabiala. I don’t really need to delve into why, but it’s pretty clear that they won’t be in Portland in 2024. Four club options should be exercised: Miller, Rasmussen, Gutierrez, and Caliskan. Eric Miller is the most notable name there, and the other three are draft picks. Even though they haven’t lit the league on fire, they’re still good enough to get their options picked up. Franck Boli also falls into this category, and if I was the Timbers I would also pick up his option. But that’s already a decision that I can see will be tough for the front office. Could they try to add another striker in the offseason? I think that Boli’s play has earned him another year in Portland at least. Evander is the centerpiece of the team, and Boli has already shown great chemistry with him. But it’s not a sure thing at this point that his option will be picked up. That leaves two players who don’t have an option: Bingham and Blanco. Bingham’s true value is his contract. He’s making the senior minimum salary this season, and would no doubt want a pay raise. He’s eligible for free agency, but still has a chance of claiming the starting job here. I think he ends up entering free agency at the end of the season after rejecting a “lowball” offer from Portland. I only put “lowball” in quotes to illustrate how he could always want more money even if our offer is double his current salary (an offer double his salary is about $190K/yr). But he should get another offer from Portland even if he ends up not taking it. Blanco is the most interesting case here. He’s already on TAM, and he’s not going to get back to 2021 fitness. The signs (at least health-wise) are pointing towards retirement, but he’s also Sebastian Blanco and if he wants to keep playing he’ll keep playing. The most likely option is a much smaller contract with Portland (he’s eligible for free agency but I doubt he goes to another MLS club). If that doesn’t happen, he’ll retire. Bryan Acosta isn’t on this list, but he does have a club option for next season. It’s too early to predict what will happen with him after the season ends. The other player not on this list who deserves a mention is Santiago Moreno. He’s going to have to play his way into a big contract, so it’s worth keeping an eye on his performances for the rest of the season just for that reason alone. His contract dispute is the most public one in Portland, and now there are 4 U22 Initiative players on the team. You can only have three (Antony is using Ayala’s slot due to Ayala’s injury and the SEI tag) so Santi looks like the most obvious U22 to exclude from that tag next season. This is a lot of future talk while there’s still a lot of season to be played, but it does beg mentioning at this moment. 

Conclusion

Overall, Ned Grabavoy accomplished his objectives this summer. What the team accomplishes in the rest of the season will shape the winter window. But for now, the Timbers are a better team after the summer than they were before. That’s what the goal was, and it’s been achieved. The only competition left for Portland is MLS Cup. Those signings can help us push back into the playoff places and maybe make a surprise run deep into the playoffs. I’m not going to speculate on that right now, but the team is in the position to do just that. Great work from Grabavoy. Now the playoff push begins.

Cascadia FC's Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.