Portland Timbers-Sporting Kansas City Match Preview (2/27)

Author’s Note: This is assuming the game will be played, as weather conditions in Portland will actually be worse on Monday night than they would have been on Saturday. 

The long offseason is over, and the gates of Providence Park will soon be open for the opening match of the 2023 season. Sporting Kansas City is coming to town and no matter the result, it should be a very entertaining match.

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These two clubs do have a significant history with one another. You can’t talk about the Timbers’ 2015 MLS Cup without talking about the thrilling first-round matchup against SKC. The Timbers had the lead in regulation, but lost it right before full time. Kansas City scored early in extra time, but failed to stop Maxi Urruti from slotting home a miracle equalizer to force penalties. The most-remembered moment from the match (and the title of Cascadia FC’s Timbers podcast- go check it out) was a scientific wonder of a double posted penalty kick that would have won it for the visitors. Instead, the shootout continued until both keepers took their kicks. One failed, one converted, and at the end the Timbers stood victorious. These two sides have also met in the 2018 playoffs, with the Timbers taking a scoreless first leg into Children’s Mercy Park and leaving with three points and a spot in 2018 MLS Cup. The series between these two is almost identical, with SKC holding a slight 8-8-7 advantage over Portland. Last year, the Timbers had their biggest win of the season over SKC, defeating them 7-2. In the reverse fixture, Kansas City had their biggest win of the season over Portland, defeating them 4-1. As a fan, I consider Kansas City a rival just because the games between us are always very close. They’re obviously not on a tier with a geographic rival like the LA Galaxy, but they are a Western Conference game I always circle on my calendar. 

Kansas City is looking to start this year off with a bang. Last year was a down year for a team that can be looked at as a perennial contender. DP striker Alan Pulido was lost for the entire season with a torn ACL, but summer signing Willy Agada arrived and quickly got them back on track in the attack. SKC started the year looking like a spoon contender (with the obvious low point of 7-2), but got re-energized by Agada and Erik Thommy, another summer edition. Longtime starting keeper Tim Melia had a down year, but I expect him to return to being a quality MLS-level shot stopper in 2023. Daniel Salloi and Johnny Russell will pair with Agada/Pulido in attack and this team should be scoring by the bunches. They also signed DM Nemanja Radoja to protect the backline. That aforementioned backline is going to need a lot of protecting because it is the weakest position on the roster. Projected starter Kortne Ford got injured in preseason and will be out the entire year. But, make no mistake about it, this is a playoff-quality squad. 

Both injury reports have been released, and both sides are going to have key players out. Kansas City are going to be missing Ford, Russell, Logan Ndenbe, and DP central midfielder Gadi Kinda. Felipe Mora, Sebastian Blanco, David Ayala, and Dairon Asprilla are not going to suit up for Portland. Where it gets interesting, however, is when you look at the questionable section of the report. Kansas City has listed Pulido as questionable, so there is a chance he might get some playing time (although Agada is definitely starting). Claudio Bravo, Juan Mosquera and Aljaz Ivacic are questionable on the Timbers side. Bravo is probably not going to play, Ivacic has said he is starting, and I believe Mosquera will start, but might be on a minutes restriction. 

Kansas City will be playing in a 4-3-3, the favored formation of head coach Peter Vermes. Captain Johnny Russell is out, so either Khiry Shelton or Marinos Tzonis will start in his place. Agada up top and Salloi off the left wing are both dangerous players. The midfield three of Thommy, Remi Walter, and Radoja is also set. Old man Graham Zusi should be starting at right back, with new signing Tim Leibold making his SKC debut at left back. Center back is their problem area, but Andreu Fontas and Robert Voloder should still start together with Ford out. There is an underrated battle going on at GK, but I still think Melia will get the nod for the season opener. 

Giovanni Savarese is so excited to return to the 4-2-3-1, and Evander will make his home debut at that crucial number 10 spot. Santiago Moreno and Yimmi Chara will flank him on the wings. Eryk Williamson and Diego Chara are sharpied in at both center midfield spots. Ivacic said he would play, and if he says something I’m inclined to listen to him. I’ve already talked about Mosquera, and if he isn’t going to start Pablo Bonilla will start in his place. I don’t expect Bravo to play, so second-year left back Justin Rasmussen will probably get his first start of the year. With the Bill Tuiloma trade, Dario Zuparic and Zac McGraw will be the first names on the teamsheet at center back. The Timbers also signed free agent defender Eric Miller, according to Tom Bogert. He is a former Timbers U23 player who can play both center back and right back. He will not be in the matchday lineup as his transfer just happened and the club hasn’t formally announced him as a Timbers player yet. 

The other story surrounding this match was the postponement from Saturday night to Monday night. Portland has endured a large snow and ice storm and rumor has it that the Kansas City squad hasn’t arrived here yet. There are two major things to consider on the pitch for the Timbers. First of all, the two extra days could provide Bravo, Mosquera, and Ivacic valuable time to heal and be ready for Monday. Second of all, the Timbers are now going to be on a short week of preparation ahead of their trip to Los Angeles next weekend to play LAFC. It was confirmed today that LAFC’s opening weekend match against the Galaxy was postponed to mid-July, so the defending champions will now have another extra week of rest. That will only be important for this week if Savarese believes that players must be rested due to the short turnaround. I don’t think it will be the case given how early in the season it is, but it is something to keep in mind. Off the field, many fans who were initially planning to attend Saturday night might not be able to attend a Monday night game. I don’t have the clearest idea of how much it will fully impact the crowd support, given a large number of devoted attendees were still not planning on going due to the front office turmoil. For those like myself who are none too pleased at the front office, we are looking forward to Merritt Paulson (or Heather Davis) try to spin a lower attendance number on the postponement rather than his own actions (or lack of them). A season opener already shrouded in controversy now has more to deal with. 

Without noted SKC killer Sebastian Blanco, a lot of pressure is going to fall on Evander, Moreno, and Yimmi to create and finish in the attack. The bigger question is which striker Savarese will be starting on Saturday night. Jaroslaw Niezgoda is coming off an underwhelming season, but he is still the first-choice player up top. However, the Timbers might have another SKC killer who can play. Nathan Fogaca made his first start against SKC last year and was unstoppable. He scored twice and was a major weapon with his off-ball movement as well. I believe the key to winning this match is starting Fogaca over Niezgoda. I know it’s very unfair to Jaro, but Nathan enjoyed his biggest success against this very team last year. Plus, with Bravo and possibly Mosquera out, the Timbers will need to press early and often to keep the ball from reaching them as much as possible. In the 7-2 game, Fogaca’s deliberate movements in the attacking area were overwhelming for the SKC defense. A statement win against a quality opponent is a great way to start off a new season, and the Timbers have a golden opportunity to strike fear into the league’s hearts once again. 

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