Portland Timbers-Sporting Kansas City Preview (5/25)

After a full week of training and rest, the Portland Timbers (3-4-7, 13 points, 11W/23S) return to Providence Park on Saturday night. Their opponent is Sporting Kansas City (2-5-6, 11 points, 13W/26S) who are also in the midst of a ghastly run. 

The SKC Report

These two teams last met on April 7th in Kansas City. The hosts took a 3-0 lead into halftime, and were set to go up 4 goals when they were awarded a penalty in the 60th minute. However, Willy Agada completely missed the target, and the Timbers had life. Their resulting comeback saw the points shared, and since then SKC hasn’t won in their next 6 MLS games. That streak doesn’t include the Open Cup. SKC has played in two Open Cup games over the past month, and have won both. They have advanced to the quarterfinals, but both matches were against USL teams. It took extra time to beat Union Omaha in Nebraska, but they comfortably dispatched FC Tulsa at home on Tuesday. SKC hasn’t beaten a MLS team since March 30th, when they beat Toronto in Toronto. That is their only road win of the season. The entire winless streak has reached 7 games, but they have lost their last 4. Road losses to table-toppers RSL and Minnesota don’t look too bad, but losing to Houston at home and Austin on the road aren’t good results. Peter Vermes has got to turn this ship around, because his seat is growing hotter and hotter with each passing week.

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If I could find one stat to sum up SKC’s 2024 season, it would have to be the points that they have dropped from winning position. Although they have only played 13 games, the Wizards have dropped 17 points from winning positions already. That is by far the most in the league. If this team could hold on to a lead, they would be a lot higher up in the table. But they’ve also been overperforming their xG. According to FBRef, SKC’s non-penalty xG overperformance is 2nd-highest in the league, behind Inter Miami. They rank in the bottom half of the league in shot-creating actions per 90. Like the Timbers, they are having trouble with consistent chance creation. But one of their players has been putting together a Best XI-caliber season. Strangely enough, it isn’t one of their Designated Players. Erik Thommy has played on the wing and as an 8, and he leads the team with 5 goals. He’s one of those players that falls into the category of “bangers only.” The other “bangers only” player on this team is right back Jake Davis. Both of his 2024 goals have been thunderbolts from outside the box. Memo Rodriguez has claimed a starting spot and leads the team in assists. SKC are conceding an average of 1.85 goals per 90, which is 5th-worst in the league. They just cannot stop allowing late goals, and it has derailed their season.

Logan Ndembe and Kayden Pierre are out. Midfielder Remi Walter is questionable.

After going up 2-0 at halftime against Tulsa, Vermes decided to rest many of his key players who started the game. Rosero and Fontas should be the center back pairing. Bassong has been Vermes’ first choice at left back as of late, taking the job from Tim Leibold. Jake Davis played the full game against Tulsa, but he’s been undroppable for SKC. The midfield is first-choice. Salloi and Russell should be on the wings, while Pulido starts at striker. Although SKC has been struggling, this is a first-choice lineup that Vermes can pick from. And they need to win this game, so rotation isn’t really an option.

The Timbers Report

1 win in 11 games is far from acceptable, but the changes promised by Phil Neville weeks ago have begun to show on the pitch. The most notable adjustment from the coaching staff has got to be the back three. Against San Jose, the back three was implemented for the first time but the Timbers still conceded twice (once on a set piece and once on an individual error). Portland lined up in a back three from the start against Minnesota, and defended really well in the first half. But the individual errors struck again in the second half, and a couple of missed chances on the attacking end consigned the Timbers to defeat. Now the Timbers have allowed multiple goals in 10 consecutive games, which is a MLS record. In my view, there’s only one thing that this defense needs to find: consistency. There have been a total of 9 different backline combinations in the 14 games played so far in 2024. To further complicate things, there hasn’t been an established first-choice double pivot in front of them. The Timbers have a lot of talent on the roster, but no one has been able to distinguish themselves as a certified starter besides Kamal Miller, Juan Mosquera, and Diego Chara. Miller has started every game that he’s available for, Mosquera has started every game, and Chara has been benched for a couple of games but it’s only due to rest. But with the squad getting healthier, a first-choice backline is almost established.

What a week it has been for Dario Zuparic. He was one of three players on the roster to play every minute in all three games last week. And somehow, he wishes he could play more than that. “I would play every other day if I could,” the Croatian said after training on Tuesday. He has also played in both systems that the defense has lined up in over the past week. Does he see a difference between the back three and the back four? “I think it’s the same. It’s all about showing character and nothing changes if we’re playing 5 at the back or 4. We just need to put the work in and follow the runners.” In the past week, Zuparic has shone. He was the best player on the pitch against Seattle, and he put in more solid performances in the following two games. As far as I’m concerned, he’s a locked in starter for the rest of the season. And if he’s ready to play, he will play. 

Only two names on the injury report for Portland this week. Santiago Moreno will miss his second straight game and Marvin Loria hasn’t been cleared for selection yet. Claudio Bravo is not on the injury report, and should be available for selection tomorrow.

Every game from this point forward is a must-win, so the Timbers have to start a best-available XI. Crepeau, Miller, and Zuparic will definitely start this game. The final centerback spot is up for debate. There are positives and negatives to starting Araujo or Zac McGraw, but this is a home game and the Timbers should be on the front foot. Araujo is the best choice for a front-foot Timbers team because of his skill on the ball. That’s still McGraw’s biggest weakness, but if this was a road game I’d have McGraw in this XI. Ayala has to start. Diego Chara should not be rested for this game. Bravo is back, so he should start. The front three could get interesting, but Antony has not been able to find form. Rodriguez and Mora should start up top with Evander underneath. You have to win your home games, and this lineup gives the Timbers their best chance at taking all three points.

Tactical Preview

Set Pieces

In the April 7th match between these two teams, SKC took a 3-0 lead into halftime. Two of those goals came off of set pieces. The first set piece goal (2-0) was from a corner kick. The second (3-0) was the result of a well-worked free kick routine. I asked Phil Neville about set pieces during the pre-match press conference, and the head coach had this to say: “I think we’re improving on our defensive stability on set plays. We’ve been working really hard on our attacking set plays to be more efficient on those.” 

In order for the Timbers to win this game, they have to dominate dead ball scenarios. Kansas City is a veteran team and set pieces can often be the deciding factor in close matches such as this one. With both teams desperately needing a win, focus on set pieces will be absolutely crucial. 

Consistent Chance Creation

It is no secret that the Timbers are vastly overperforming their expected goals. Since this game is at home, the Timbers need to dominate the ball and create good chances for the entire game. A free-roaming Evander should open up plenty of space for the forwards, and the wingbacks can provide extra threat out wide. Ayala’s presence in the midfield should be able to help in that area too. All of the players listed in the predicted starting XI are pretty good on the ball. This is an opportunity to draw SKC defenders forward and attack the space in behind. Rodriguez’s goal against Minnesota was an excellent example of how this Timbers team can and should attack. If SKC decides to bunker, Evander will have a lot of responsibility on his shoulders. Rodriguez and Mora are very good at exploiting space in the box, so finding them will be crucial. SKC does have the aerial advantage in the box, so slip passes and cutback balls should be the primary way to attack a potential low block in this match. Off-ball movement will be key, and an extra centerback will allow Mosquera and Bravo to get further forward and provide width. This is not the match to keep sending in aerial crosses. 

Final Thoughts

Announcer Analytics

Blake Price and Paul Dolan are on the English broadcast. Both of them usually do Vancouver Whitecaps games, but Messi is in town so they’ve been sent south. The Spanish broadcast will feature Francisco X. Rivera and Diego Arrioja. Since this is a home game, the home radio broadcast will also be an option on Apple TV. Let’s hope that the technical staff won’t have another mistake like they did against San Jose. This game is NOT FREE on Apple TV, and kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 PM PST. 

Referee Report

Drew Fischer will be the center ref tomorrow. He has refereed one Portland-SKC match before: the 1-0 SKC win at Providence Park on April 15, 2017.

Final Whistle

For both of these teams, this is a must-win match. Although the Timbers’ only victory in the past three months was very fluky, the confidence from that victory almost led them to victory in Minnesota before they blew the game. Now the Timbers have dropped 12 points from winning positions. SKC tops that list with 17. For any neutral viewer, this might be the game of the weekend.

After the San Jose game, Neville said that he kept a picture of the league table in the locker room and kept pointing at it during pre-game and halftime. If the Timbers win, they could potentially climb up to 9th place. But a loss could send them tumbling down to 13th. They have dug quite a hole for themselves, but they’re not out of the fight yet. And now they welcome one of their semi-rivals to Providence Park. SKC does hold a 9-9-8 advantage historically over Portland, but the Timbers are 6-4-4 against the Wizards at Providence Park (one of those draws is the Double Post game). Portland has also won the past 4 matches against SKC at home with a goal differential of +8. However, the majority of that goal differential comes from the 7-2 win in 2022. The other 3 games were 1-goal victories. So the Timbers need to keep their competitive rival at bay and get their season back on track. Sounds easy enough, right? Right?

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