Portland Timbers-St. Louis City SC Match Preview (3/11)

The Timbers return home following a 3-2 loss to LAFC to face the newest club in Major League Soccer: St. Louis City SC. It is the first meeting between the two sides, but both cities have a serious claim to the Soccer City USA moniker. 

You can’t tell the story of soccer in the United States without mentioning St. Louis. The first recorded game of soccer in STL was played in 1882 during the Chester Arthur administration. 2,000 people filled the stands at Sportsman’s Park to watch the Hurleys beat the Hornets. In 1950, the US Men’s National Team defeated England 1-0 at the World Cup in a massive upset. Five of the eleven players on the team were from St. Louis. MLS-wise, many current and former MLS players hail from Mound City. Former Timbers captain Jack Jewsbury, Fulham standout Tim Ream, and former MLS MVP Taylor Twellman all called St. Louis home at some point. MLS-wise, a team in St. Louis has been a long time coming. Each time the league was looking for a new expansion franchise, St. Louis kept coming up short. Finally, in 2017, the city got a stadium deal, with a formal expansion bid launched the next year. The bid was approved in 2019, and the team began its first season in February.

Thanks for reading Cascadia FC's Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

St. Louis City SC has only played in 2 matches, but they have won both of them. After a shocking upset in Matchday 1 in Austin, they won their home opener against Charlotte last Saturday. Throughout both games, they have looked up to the task of competing in Major League Soccer. Their first DP signing was goalkeeper Roman Burki, a former Borussia Dortmund starter. The other two DPs on the roster are midfielder Eduard Lowen and striker Joao Klauss. All three Designated Players have been instant-impact, with Lowen controlling the midfield and Klauss scoring in both matches so far this year. Head coach Bradley Carnell is from the Red Bull coaching tree, and has emphasized the high-pressing high-octane style that Red Bull teams play. No injury report has been released for STL, but center back Joakim Nilsson is still out until the summer with a knee injury. Forward Isak Jensen was not in the matchday squad last weekend and might still be nursing an ankle injury this week. They will line up in a 4-2-2-2, and I expect their XI to look the same this week as it did last week against Charlotte. Burki in net, with John Nelson, Kyle Hiebert, Tim Parker, and Jake Nerwinski in the back. Njabulo Blom will partner Lowen in midfield, with Jared Stroud and Thomas Ostrak more advanced on the wings. Klauss and American Sebastian Gioacchini will play off each other up top. This team has had a lot of time to gel, and they do not look like a typical expansion side. They already have an identity as a club and 2 victories in a row to start off their maiden voyage in MLS is nothing to sneeze at. 

Portland is still awash in injuries, even though there are no new changes to the injury report. The Knee Boys (Felipe Mora, Sebastian Blanco, David Ayala, Dairon Asprilla, and Tega Ikoba) are still out. The timeline for Yimmi Chara’s hamstring injury has changed, as he may be out a couple more months as opposed to the couple of weeks the club first estimated. Bottomline, the Timbers effectively have only two pure wingers at their disposal for this week. The biggest question surrounding the LAFC match was the team’s tactical shift at the 60th minute when they shifted to a back three with Claudio Bravo and Juan Mosquera as the wingbacks. Following this change, they outscored LAFC 2-0 and looked a lot more comfortable in and out of possession. Now, entering a match against an energetic St. Louis team, the question remains: which Timbers XI will we see to start the game?  Zac McGraw said in his Thursday press conference that the team has been training in both a back 3 and a back 4. I personally believe a back three would be more effective, but Giovanni Savarese will probably start a back four. That means this week’s projected Timbers XI reads as follows: Aljaz Ivacic in goal (he just signed a contract extension this week, he’s going to start), Mosquera-McGraw-Zuparic-Claudio Bravo in the back four, Eryk Williamson-Diego Chara in the double pivot, Marvin Loria-Evander-Santiago Moreno making up the 3rd line, and Nathan Fogaca up top. This is the week to start Fogaca, and Savarese probably knows it. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see Jaroslaw Niezgoda coming out of the tunnel on Saturday night, however.

The key to a Timbers victory on Saturday night is to simply not beat themselves. St. Louis has scored six goals across both games, but it is their recent match against Charlotte that has grabbed my attention the most. In that game, they were the beneficiary of an own goal, they scored a penalty, and intercepted another ill-timed backpass to score much like they did against Austin FC in the season opener. All three of those goals are preventable, and speak more to their press than their skill in possession. Most notably, the Timbers have to improve their set piece defense. McGraw also spoke on this, saying, “We’re just going to tighten our man marking [on corner kicks].” Playing out the back looks like an ineffective strategy this week, so winning aerial duels in the midfield will be something to keep an eye on. I do expect the Timbers to try to sit back and counter this week, but they should definitely try to press when St. Louis has the ball in their own half. The Timbers have not been good at creating chances when they are playing in a back four, but if the attack has stagnated I expect Savarese to make the same shift that he did against LAFC. Whether or not he starts with the back three is still the biggest question though. 

The title of Soccer City USA is up for grabs (at least in the minds of some St. Louisans). This game should be action packed and fast-paced, so viewers from a rooting or neutral standpoint will be entertained. The kickoff time on Saturday is scheduled at 7:30 (7:38, come on Apple you are SO CLOSE to perfection), and the forecast says it is gonna be another cold one with temperatures around the high 30s. The Timbers have only lost once at home to an expansion team in their first season of MLS, with that loss coming against Orlando in 2015. All the history points to this being another Timbers victory if they don’t beat themselves. 

Thanks for reading Cascadia FC's Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.