Portland Timbers-Tigres UANL Preview (7/26)

Following their tournament-opening victory against San Jose, the Timbers will welcome another Group West 1 opponent to Providence Park on Wednesday night (8:00 PM ((GROAN)), Apple TV, TUDN, FS1). This isn’t just any normal opponent, however.

Hailing from the city of Monterrey in the state of Nuevo Leon, Tigres have arguably been the most successful Mexican club in recent memory. Club America likes to claim that they are the biggest club in North America, and Chivas’ influence can be seen at BMO Stadium, but Tigres is the current top dog (cat?) in Mexico. Playing any Liga MX team is a tough task, but Tigres UANL (Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, for those who want to know the meaning of acronyms) are the current Mexican champions. They won the title after they were drawn into the Timbers’ Leagues Cup group (because why not) and are 5th through 3 games in the current Liga MX season. This is a good time to talk more about Liga MX and why it’s so interesting. Instead of a single season, there are 2 separate seasons that Mexican clubs play in a calendar year. The first season is called the Apertura, and the second one is called the Clausura. Tigres are the defending Clausura champions, Pachuca are the defending Apertura champions. It’s very cool and good that the Timbers are facing the gold standard of Mexican teams in this tournament. And the Tigres roster is loaded. Argentinian goalkeeper Nahuel Guzman is a master of shithousery. He’s 37 years old and loves to get in the head of anyone he faces. But he’s not the only dangerous 37-year-old on the roster. Andre-Pierre Gignac has had such an interesting career. He scored goals for fun with a fun Marseille side in the early 2010s. But his move to Tigres in 2015 was eyebrow-raising. Not many European-born strikers opt to move to Mexico in their prime. But Gignac’s decision had a historical payoff. He became the only player in French history to represent the national team in a major tournament without playing in Europe when he was called up for Euro 2016. He has played more matches for Tigres than he has for any of his previous clubs combined. Famously short Diego Lainez deserves a mention as well. He joined Real Betis in January 2019 after impressing for Club America. However, he never found form in Spain and has been loaned out in consecutive years (Braga last year, Tigres this year). He has never scored for Tigres yet but he’s still a valuable contributor. Fernando Gorriaran, Guido Pizarro, and Rafael Carioca form a deadly midfield three. Diego Reyes leads their backline. There is one huge addition who might make his Tigres debut on Wednesday night. Ozziel Herrera just joined from Atlas and Tigres fans are very excited for what he can bring to the team. This entire team is absolutely stacked. 

Cascadia FC's Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

There is only one injury question mark for Tigres: Francisco Cordova. He scored the dramatic equalizer in the 2nd leg of the Clausura Final back in May, but he’s been injured for the start of the Apertura. He did travel with the team, so he might be available. I can’t guarantee that, but here’s a Tigres lineup anyways.

Tigres have not played since July 15, so I can predict a full-strength XI for them. Lainez is technically a question mark, but I think he’ll start. If he doesn’t, Swiss Army knife midfielder Juan Pablo Vigon could slot in on the wing. He’s technically a defensive midfielder, but he can play as an inverted winger on the left flank. The substitutes will be interesting. Herrera could make his debut, and Cordova could return to the team. Dos Nicolases (Ibanez and Lopez) are still strong options at the striker position. Raymundo Fulgencio is another option out wide. This is the toughest opponent the Timbers have played this season.

Fortunately for Timbers fans, they have won consecutive games against good opponents. The mentality of the team has been the driving force behind it. After the June 11th win against Dallas, the Timbers embarked on a 5-match winless streak. It was characterized by an inability to score and lapses in concentration on the backline. It really is amazing what one massive win can do. Portland didn’t exactly play San Jose off the pitch last Saturday, but the momentum they found before Felipe Mora’s icing goal (a goal that ices the game, trying some new soccer nomenclature out because why not) meant that Mora’s emotional strike was coming. And that’s the most important piece of their recent hotstreak. If they keep the momentum in their favor, the goals will come. Giovanni Savarese has told the team that every match in this tournament should be treated like a cup final. I had the opportunity to ask him about that at Thursday’s press conference, and he said the following: “We have to think about this game by itself and try our hardest to get a result.” If tomorrow’s match is tied after 90 minutes, the Timbers will automatically advance. If they win the resulting penalty shootout, they will top the group. There are serious stakes for this match, and this “cup final” mentality will be crucial for the Timbers to get their desired result tomorrow.

The injury report continues to be a carousel. Franck Boli is cleared to play. But Yimmi Chara is officially listed as questionable. Savarese said it’s not too serious and his inclusion is more precautionary than anything. I’m all for being precautious, especially with several available wingers in the squad. But the Timbers are 5-2-2 in matches where Yimmi is available this year. Even if he isn’t healthy enough to start, we should be hoping he’s on the bench. With this in mind, let’s look at tomorrow’s potential XI. 

There are reasons I have for picking a back three, and I’ll get into them later. Most importantly, I think that Miguel Araujo makes his Timbers debut tomorrow night. If Savarese is looking at this match in a vacuum (which he said he is doing in the press conference) a back three/five makes a lot of sense. I’m going to talk a bit about Cristhian Paredes and Evander because a pattern is emerging in their play. They often swap positions. You see Timbers wingers change sides a lot, and I still can’t figure out what the trigger is for the winger switches. However, Evander and Paredes only swap when the Timbers are in their build-up phase. Evander drops deeper and Paredes pushes up so Evander can focus on making the initial ball to start attacks. Paredes is useful in the middle third to keep possession and allow Evander to join in once the ball reaches the final third. I don’t know how that specific tactic will work in this formation, but it is something I have noticed over the past couple games. I went with Bingham as the starting keeper because he got another clean sheet and if a keeper gets a clean sheet you don’t drop them for the next match. Pretty straightforward.

Tigres are an incredibly ball-dominant side. They want the ball and they’re good at keeping it and creating chances. Gignac is enough of a threat by himself that starting only two center backs would open up spaces for all the other attackers Tigres have at their disposal. Zac McGraw is very well suited to mark Gignac, and Araujo and Zuparic can provide cover. Remember, the Timbers only need to force penalties to advance, so a bunker-and-counter approach can definitely put the result in their favor. This formation also lends itself beautifully to a great counterattack. Evander and Paredes can keep switching places and Moreno’s speed and agility is perfect for running at defenders. This could also morph into a 5-3-2 with Mora and Boli up top. Of course, you’re still lacking a true wide threat outside of the wingbacks, but it still puts the Timbers in a great position to accomplish their goal: get a result. No one would be unhappy with a draw after 90 minutes on paper (of course, the game is played on the pitch and not the box score). If Tigres have about 65-70% possession but the Timbers have some good counterattacks this could end up being a statement win. The Timbers’ biggest defensive strength this season has been limiting shots on goal. Paredes and Diego Chara have been crucial in that regard, and so has McGraw and Claudio Bravo. There were some shaky moments against San Jose but those were born out of transition moments rather than long spells of possession. Savarese said the team does have a plan when they have the ball and can build-up, but this game will be won or lost on the counterattacks. It’s a mentality thing and the mentality has never been higher this season. In conclusion, parking the bus at home is never pretty, but Tigres are a better team than Portland (that’s just facts). Tomorrow’s gameplan will be more crucial than the starting lineup, because if the right gameplan isn’t in place things could get very ugly. 

I’ve already previewed what’s at stake in terms of finishing spots, but I will go into more detail as to what a result tomorrow night means in both the short- and long-term. A second place group finish sees the Timbers face one of either Monterrey/RSL/Seattle. If Monterrey tops the group, it will be a home match for Portland. If RSL or (however unlikely) Seattle wins the group, it will be a road-trip for a team that has STRUGGLED on the road in 2023. The “Cup Final” mentality might help in case traveling will be on the menu, but it’s still not optimal. The best possible scenario is winning the group (duh). That guarantees the Timbers another home game, and it will be against either Leon/Vancouver/LA Galaxy. Leon are the current CCL holders, Vancouver are the current Canadian Championship holders, and the LA Galaxy are a mess (even with Riqui Puig). Anything that can get the Timbers another home game would be awesome. If we zoom out and look at the wider implications of a positive result tomorrow, there could be a case made that it’s one of the most impressive results in Timbers history. A win would automatically put tomorrow’s match in the top 5 all-time Timbers results. It seems very silly for me to expect something positive for tomorrow, but I’m bought all the way back in. It’s still too early to tell if the past two games will have any effect on the rest of the MLS season, but the Timbers seem to be catching fire for Leagues Cup. No matter how hard the task at hand is tomorrow, I know the team is ready.

Cascadia FC's Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.