Portland Timbers-Vancouver Whitecaps Preview (5/13)

The Cascadia Cup is back in session on Saturday, and Portland once again have an opportunity to defend their crown. Saturday’s match kicks off at 7:37 on Apple TV, and it will be a free broadcast. For those who can’t make it (or simply don’t want to go), you will be treated to the dulcet tones of Ross Smith on the broadcast, who will call his first Timbers game of 2023. After being in announcer hell for much of the season, it will be nice to have a familiar face speaking about a team that he knows very well. 

This is the table for the Cascadia Cup so far in 2023. As you can see, this will be the Timbers’ third match in this competition so far. It will also be their second against Vancouver. You might remember (you probably don’t want to) our earlier contest at BC Place on April 8th. I don’t need to go into too much detail about that previous engagement, because it was rather ugly. I will inform you that it was our only trip to Vancouver in 2023. Because of the league’s scheduling, there will be an uneven amount of Cascadia Cup matches, with 3 fixtures against each Cascadian opponent. We host Vancouver twice, and we travel to Seattle twice. Saturday’s match is our first home match against Vancouver in 2023, with the second coming on August 26. Vancouver’s first Seattle match is on May 20 at BC Place. Given our already precarious position in this table, this is a must-win game. Under no circumstances should we allow any of these tiny tiny clubs to get their hands on this trophy.

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Since March 11th, Vancouver have been on an unbeaten run in MLS play. In total, they are 8 games into this run, but only 3 of those 8 have been wins. That can be chalked up to poor finishing. They lead the league in big chances created, and are 4th in xG. That xG number is at 18.2, but they have only scored 14 times in MLS play. You might point to Sergio Cordova’s absence as a big reason for their underperformance, but some blame does lie with Brian White. White has been a terror in the box so far, finding all the right spots in the attack, but the finishes are just not there. He currently has the league lead in xG with 6, but only has 4 goals. Other standouts for Vancouver include their elite creator Julian Gressel, who leads the league with 11 chances created. First-season keeper Yohei Takaoka has 4 clean sheets in 10 matches, and has only conceded 9 goals with an xG conceded of 12.1. Ryan Gauld is also a monster chance creator, with his 27 total chances created good enough for second in the league. I was high on Vancouver entering 2023, and so far my premonition has been correct. They are a very good team, but are just missing the finishes to take them into the league’s upper tier. Their 3-5-2 record is misleading. If they can convert more of those draws into wins they will be a serious contender for MLS Cup. 

The Whitecaps also had a midweek game, and the lineup they put out was rather strong. Their 4-1 win over York United advanced them into the semifinals of the Canadian Championship. However, some of their key players played major minutes. Gauld and Pedro Vite went 70, Ali Ahmed played 73, and key center back Tristan Blackmon played 82. Ranko Veselinovic, Matias Laborda, and Simon Becher all played the full 90. That’s a lot of playing time before another game on only 2 days rest. Veselinovic is the most consequential of those who played the full 90, as him and Blackmon’s partnership in defense has been a key facet of Vancouver’s unbeaten run. Becher is effectively Vancouver’s third-string striker, but he has been a valuable part of their attack. Sergio Cordova has returned from his injury, and both him and White didn’t feature in the midweek match. Julian Gressel played the final 20. With these notes in mind, here’s my predicted starting XI for the Whitecaps. 

Vanni Sartini is in a bit of a pickle. With both White and Cordova available, it is a tough decision for him to decide which one to start. I think he goes with White, as White has still been dangerous besides his finishing struggles. Vite and Gauld both got major minutes against York, but they are too crucial to this team to consider sitting. Expect a minutes restriction on both of them, however. Cubas and Schopf did not feature midweek, so they are easy inclusions. Same with Gressel, who is their best player. Luis Martins and Javain Brown will start at the fullback roles, and neither played during the midweek game. Veselinovic and Blackmon have to start. Laborda and Karifa Yao are the backups, but the partnership is too important to risk breaking up in such a serious rivalry matchup. Takaoka is their number one, and only injury will force him out of the XI. Their most dangerous options off the bench will be Cordova, Deiber Caicedo, and Ali Ahmed. Russell Teibert played 82 minutes against York, and he could see the field, but I’m not counting on it. Stamina is the biggest concern with Vancouver, particularly in the middle of the backline.

Portland is in a confusing spot. On the whole, there have already been improvements throughout the squad in both the attack and defense. They seem to be so close to being a consistently good team, but there have only been two good performances throughout the year. Both the home Seattle match and the away St. Louis match are shining examples of what this team can be. But on the other hand, performances like last week against Austin were cohesive in every aspect, but it will be defined by the two defensive mistakes that allowed the Verde and Black to steal a point at home. I said in my Austin recap that Portland should be trying to take 8 points from their 4 remaining MLS matches in May (VAN, @RSL, MIN, @SKC) and that is still a realistic goal. Portland rested several starters against RSL in the Open Cup match, so the lineup for Saturday is pretty easy to predict.

Boli, Evander, Bravo, Chara, and Zuparic were not in the squad for the midweek game. 

This all but confirms they will start. McGraw and Ivacic were in the squad, but didn’t see the field. Mosquera, Asprilla, and Moreno came off the bench but played limited minutes. Paredes started against RSL and played 55 minutes, which was 10 more than Giovanni Savarese intended. He should still be good to start. The biggest question in this XI is the role of Yimmi Chara and possibly Sebastian Blanco. Moreno is the only locked-in starter on the wing in my eyes, as either Yimmi or Dairon could fill in opposite him. I chose Dairon here because Yimmi is still working his way back from injury, and I also like Yimmi’s energy off the bench. He has more match-changing potential as a substitute, so it’s not a bad thing for him to come in late. Blanco played 45 against RSL, scored, and was still incredibly influential in the attack. The most helpful thing he can bring to this side is actually through his linking play rather than being a key contributor in the final third. In that RSL game, he was linking between both the backline and midfield, and the midfield and the forward line, while also creating in the final third. He has never shied away from that kind of responsibility, but his fitness is still a question. I would only expect to see him on the field if we are behind in the second half. Noel Caliskan could be a midfield sub following his fantastic performance in the Open Cup, but his stamina and recovery is the only question surrounding him. Niezgoda and Nathan Fogaca will once again be the backup forwards. One part of the squad that is very weak depth-wise is at the fullback spots, with both Justin Rasmussen and Pablo Bonilla playing deep into the RSL game. There is a league fixture against RSL next Wednesday, so it will be a lot of gametime for both Bravo and Mosquera. Eric Miller will return to the squad on Saturday, but it is unknown how many minutes he will be able to play following his return from health-and-safety protocols. There will still be some lineup juggling with the substitutes, but this is still a very strong XI. 

Normal analysts would go back to the previous Vancouver match to try and analyze what went wrong with our team. I would instead like to counter with this:

This was the team that started on April 8th in BC Place. You might notice how bad the midfield was, with Santi and Diego Gutierrez both playing as 8s. As a result, we could only complete 71% of our passes and only had 2 shots. Easily our most flaccid performance of the season. With Evander fully back and this team looking really dangerous in attack, I don’t think we will see the same malaise that made the April 8th match nearly unwatchable. I expect the attack to be a lot more direct and take advantage of Vancouver’s tired center back pairing. Franck Boli’s movements will be key, and he was so close to finding the net against Austin. He is getting on the scoresheet in this one. My biggest question attack-wise is who is going to be the linker between the backline and the midfield. When David Ayala (sob) was playing, his passing range and fearlessness allowed Diego Chara to focus on shielding and defending. Chara is a very good passer, but he isn’t as creative as Ayala from deep. As a result, in the Austin game, you saw a good amount of knocking it around the back before long balls were played from the center backs. That was also due to Austin’s lack of serious pressure, but it is an issue that isn’t getting a lot of notice right now. That is the role Cristhian Paredes needs to fill on Saturday, and I will be keeping a close eye on it. Once the ball reaches the midfield, the team will be able to execute, but I’m not a big fan of the long balls in this one. Cross-field switches could be utilized, especially from the right to the left with Moreno and Mosquera’s chemistry allowing them to shift the defense towards one flank and then rapidly switch the field. Again, these are ideas, but there is a big reason behind them. This is a home game, and we need to be direct with the ball. 

Defensively, crosses are the problem. The Timbers seem to have cleaned up their set-piece defense (that could change at any moment though). Their biggest problem seems to be in transition. That was the biggest talking point from the Atlanta match, and although it has been a lot better since then, any quick counter is still big trouble for this team. Vancouver loves to cross the ball, and unlike Austin they are very proficient in that area of the attack. Gressel is the best crosser in the league, in my opinion. In order to limit those dangerous crosses, one area of the pitch must be looked at: the fullback areas. Both Bravo and Mosquera are good at getting forward and staying back, but if both are getting forward it leaves us dangerously exposed. That has often led to Chara or even Evander dropping into the Timbers’ own box to clear the danger away. Eric Miller was absolutely key in the St. Louis match because he did provide a ton of solidity on the left side, which allowed Juan to focus on being the attacking fullback. I think Bravo needs to be a lot more defensively focused in this match, with Vancouver’s right side of Gressel and Javain Brown very dangerous in the attack. In the April 8th match, they attacked down the right relentlessly, targeting Justin Rasmussen. Bravo is a lot better than Rasmussen, and he will have his hands full. Sartini’s team creates chance after chance. Aljaz Ivacic had a standout performance on April 8th, and he will once again need to be at his best. Quick counterattacks will also need to be executed with urgency to take advantage of this Vancouver team throwing so many pieces forward. Vancouver is a good team, and they are also beatable.

Looking ahead to Saturday, the weather is expected to be in the 90s. Not only is it way too hot for mid-May, but it will also cause players to tire quicker. I am very happy that the kickoff is a late one. With every league match being important, Cascadia being at stake makes this match a stone-cold must-win. This season is still nowhere close to over, but at the very least Portland needs to keep the Cascadia Cup in the Rose City for another year.

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