Portland Timbers-Vancouver Whitecaps Preview (8/26)

The big news of the week has cast a shadow over much of the Portland Timbers and their fans. Whether you liked his coaching or not, Giovanni Savarese represented the Portland Timbers to the best of his ability. He is no longer with the team after his termination, and the players must move on. There’s a trophy at stake. 

The Vancouver Whitecaps love to tease. Throughout this season, they have shown flashes of elite play but for some reason haven’t been able to put it together. Let’s flashback to April 8th when they welcomed an absolutely battered Portland Timbers to BC Place. They put a stranglehold on the Timbers, limited them to only 2 shots, created a ton of chances, and won 1-0. Yes, a win is a win, but it could’ve been by a lot wider of a margin. The Timbers flipped the script on May 13th in Portland and DOMINATED the Whitecaps en route to a 3-1 victory. Last week, Vancouver played host to San Jose. They outshot the Quakes 19-3 and had 58% possession. Quakes win, 1-0. It’s not like they forget how to shoot correctly. They’re only underperforming their xG by 1 goal throughout the season. Their total of 39 xG is actually tops in the league. They also lead the league in big chances created. Defensively, they are solid but unspectacular. However, Sartini is still having trouble picking the formation. Is this team better in a 3-1-4-2 or a 4-3-2-1 Christmas tree? Since he keeps swapping formations, their record isn’t as good as the numbers would indicate. An 8-7-8 record is good enough for 8th in the West. But there’s one massive elephant in the room. This Saturday’s match is the beginning of a September voyage around the USA. 7 matches in a row away from home between tomorrow (August 26th) and September 30th. The Timbers do have playoff aspirations (from their own words, not their actions) and the Whitecaps look likely to slip up amidst this scheduling nightmare. There is no better way to get that slide started than taking three points off a rival. 

Cascadia FC's Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Which formation will Sartini choose on Saturday? Player availability might help deduce the inner workings of Sartini’s mind. There are no new injuries, but Sartini is probably thinking about the occasion. A reactionary starting XI isn’t a bad thing. And the Whitecaps need to plan for their opponent in order to kick off their roadtrip in a successful way.

Wow, that’s a lot of attackers. But this XI fits what the Whitecaps would need to do in order to get a result on Saturday. This is incredibly aggressive because Vancouver needs to be aggressive. The back three of Blackmon, Veselinovic, and Laborda is solid. Cubas is incredibly underrated league-wide, even though Evander put him in a blender in May. Richie Laryea was brought in this summer to replace Julian Gressel, who decided that he didn’t want to be in Canada and thought Ohio was a much better place to be. Laryea isn’t a like for like replacement, but he is their best right-sided attacker. Schopf can operate as a box-to-box midfielder but will probably play higher up the pitch to press. Pedro Vite has shown flashes of brilliance. Sergio Cordova and Brian White could both start as lone strikers, but Sartini has shown a willingness to get them both on the pitch. Attack, attack, attack on Saturday.

I could’ve gone more in depth on Vancouver, but they’re not the main story this week. Whatever you thought of Savarese’s tactical approach, you cannot deny that the man knew the importance of rivalry games. In this 2023 season, where the Timbers have routinely looked like a Spoon contender, they played their best against their rivals (not counting the April loss at BC Place because of injuries, playing Diego Gutierrez in the midfield is a decision that no coach would do unless it was out of desperation). Since the playoffs don’t look likely, Cascadia is now the highest priority for this team (at least in my mind). And if the team does want to push for the playoffs, they have to WIN tomorrow night. Miles Joseph will be on the sideline and he does have enough experience as an assistant to lead the team. I’m still very unhappy about the timing of Gio’s dismissal, but it wasn’t my decision to make. Those decision-makers will need a different Timbers team to show up.

How likely is that? Joseph said that the team shape isn’t going to change from the 4-3-3 they’ve been using so far this season. However, they are at home, and Diego Chara is back after serving his yellow card suspension. Zac McGraw is also returning from his illness. Santiago Moreno is still questionable, and I’m going to err on the side of caution with him again. Assuming Santi isn’t ready to play, here’s what the Timbers’ starting XI will look like tomorrow night:

I can’t tell you exactly when the Timbers ditched the 4-2-3-1 because the team never looked like the formation had changed. Evander has been dropping deeper, but that’s a common theme among Timbers 10s. Only three changes from the Houston match. McGraw and Diego Chara both return to the XI. I’m going to draw your attention to the goalkeeper spot. Aljaz Ivacic and David Bingham have been rotating since Ivacic returned from his time with the Slovenian national team. This just seems like a game that Bingham would start, so I think he starts. Obviously the coaching staff isn’t just making this choice based on vibes, but I also can’t imagine they’ll give Ivacic the start after he had another disastrous outing. I said in my recap of the Houston match that I think Ivacic got a very bad deal last week, and his “regression” this season has been offset by Bingham’s unspectacular solidity. This is a big choice for Joseph to make, and it’s not as simple as it looks. Moving over to the bench, I expect Nathan Fogaca to be with the first team for the remainder of the season. He’s still behind Felipe Mora on the depth chart, but he can also be an emergency winger if needed. Speaking of wingers, new signing Antony should be on the teamsheet tomorrow. I’m unsure whether or not he’ll see the pitch, but now all three summer signings are with the team. Although there is a new man in charge, the lineup shouldn’t change that much beyond the obvious returns of McGraw and Diego.

I set up Vancouver to attack, attack, and attack. If you flashback to the May 13th match at Providence Park between these two, you’ll notice that Franck Boli scored two minutes into the game. It was followed up by Evander’s first Providence Park goal 16 minutes later. Jeff Bull, better known as Conifers and Citrus, brought my attention to a key stat for tomorrow’s match: the Whitecaps are 0-3-4 when they allow the first goal. The Timbers should be pushing the intensity upon the opening whistle, which would be a stark contrast from what we witnessed in Houston. On the other side of the coin, that stat got my wheels turning. What does the Timbers’ record look like when they allow the first goal? I spent a chunk of my Houston recap pontificating on just how unlikely it is for the Timbers to find an equalizer in 2023. But I never calculated their exact record when they concede the first goal. That record is 1-1-8. The draw came in Dallas, and the win came against Seattle. That’s an 80% chance of a loss when they concede first. Both of these teams are incredibly reliant on scoring first because if they don’t score first they don’t win. Two unstoppable forces of futility are meeting tomorrow night. Vancouver could be looking ahead to Wednesday’s match against Chicago and trying to preemptively rotate, but the Timbers also have a midweek match. This is a RIVALRY game, and there’s a trophy at stake.

This is the most important week of the Timbers’ season. Not only does it begin with this pesky and annoying Vancouver team, but it’s the first match of three in seven days. The second match is a Wednesday home date with a strong RSL side. And next Saturday, the Timbers will face Seattle at Lumen Field. That’s two Cascadia games as the bread and Real Salt Lake (a rival of sorts) as the filling of this unappetizing Jimmy John’s creation. Unfortunately, we must eat all of this Jimmy John’s. And just like a regular Jimmy John’s sandwich, the bread is the most delicious looking part of the meal. If we refuse to eat the Jimmy John’s, we will definitely go hungry for the rest of the season. Not only could we lose the chance of postseason, but we could have to hand over Cascadia. All three of these teams have two Cascadia matches to play, and the final one will take place on October 7th, when the Whitecaps travel to Seattle. The Timbers do control their own destiny. They could hold on to the trophy with wins over both Vancouver and Seattle this week. And at this point, for Cascadia’s sake, beating Vancouver is more important than beating Seattle. A win against Vancouver could take the Timbers 4 points clear of the Whitecaps, and a draw against Seattle could also clinch the trophy provided they beat Vancouver. Realistically, that’s all the team has to play for this season. A loss tomorrow night could truly end all chances of the Timbers getting a trophy in 2023. That’s unacceptable. 

These players are going to be tested on Saturday night. They showed no will to win in Houston, and it cost their head coach his job. Now Miles Joseph is going to have to step up to the plate at this incredibly critical juncture. No result other than a win is going to be tolerated. The front office chose to let Gio go ahead of this crucial stretch of matches, effectively saying he was the problem. Now the players have to, in a sense, prove that he was. I’m not expecting fireworks, but I’m not happy with this team right now. I’ve been incredibly optimistic throughout this entire season, and I’ve been pretty fair in regards to the struggles Gio had to face in 2023. I thought that they could at least wait for the Timbers to be mathematically eliminated from the postseason before choosing to give Gio the axe. Most seasons shouldn’t be condensed down to one game, but even before Gio got fired this was a big one. Without a win, this season is pretty much done for. The Timbers no longer control their own destiny in the league and need a win to control their destiny in the Cascadia Cup. I don’t care how. Just win.

Another late kickoff in the season of late kickoffs (7:30 PM, not free on Apple TV). The time to prove it is now. I can deal with another missed playoff appearance if we keep Cascadia in the Rose City for another year. But, like Joseph said in his introductory press conference, playoffs are still the goal. Without a win tomorrow night, both goals look far less likely. 

Cascadia FC's Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.