Real Salt Lake-Portland Timbers Preview (5/16)

Salt Lake City is the destination for this week’s midweek field trip. Because of Apple’s newfound addiction to 7:30 PM local start times, Wednesday’s match will kick off at 6:30 PM Pacific time. There are some games that always get circled on the Timbers’ schedule each year, and this one is on my list. 

I would normally use this section to talk about the opposition we’re facing this week, but this week’s intro takes a bit of a personal turn. I used to live in Salt Lake City from late-2015 until mid-2016. It wasn’t under any ordinary circumstances either. I spent my time there in rehab. But this story isn’t about me, it’s about the Portland Timbers. We all know what was going on in late-2015 on the soccer field. A true team of destiny had been born, and they rode a scalding-hot end-of-season run to win their first ever MLS Cup. The memories formed from that season would be unforgettable. A destruction of a league power on their home field, Maxi Urruti, double posts, Dairon’s first truly magic moment, 27 seconds, Rodney Wallace, and a parade. I don’t have any. I wasn’t able to watch any games, and the Salt Lake Tribune was my only way of following the magic that was occurring in my hometown. Despite my constant insistence to let me watch two hours of soccer, I went to bed on the night of December 6th, 2015 after a long bout of restlessness with no idea what had just happened. All I could think about was getting as fast as I could out of bed in the morning and running right to the newest newspaper. Upon reading the headline in the sports section, I burst out in a yelp. They had done it. Portland was a championship city, and my favorite team across all sports had won their first title. Immediately I asked a staff member for a pair of scissors, and I cut out the article and put it on my bulletin board. That tiny newspaper clipping stayed on my board until I left, when I gifted it to another kid who was there from Portland. I would like to dream that somewhere in that building the clipping is hanging on another Portland kid’s board. Until the season started, all I had wanted to do was watch my favorite team again. My chance came on June 18, 2016, when the Timbers visited Rio Tinto. I bought a ticket, snuck into the away section, and witnessed a wacky match. Most fans remember that match for Lucas Melano’s side-splittingly hilarious flop and a dubious penalty call on Jermaine Taylor. I will remember that night for the rest of my life. This week, I will be returning to SLC for the first time since I left in 2016. I will also be attending this Wednesday’s match. And I have never wanted this team to win a non-playoff, non-rivalry game so badly.

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Last Wednesday, these two teams met in the US Open Cup. I am not taking anything meaningful away from a match that included an entirely second choice defense. But yes, RSL did win 4-3. For the second match in a row, RSL had knocked us out of a competition. Their Decision Day victory over us last year kept us out of the playoffs, and last Wednesday RSL ended our Open Cup pursuit. Don’t worry, it is impossible for them to do it this time. But it illustrates just how contentious the matches between these two teams are. Across all competitions, Portland is 13-9-12 against RSL. That includes three playoff meetings. RSL has advanced in 2 out of the 3 matchups in the postseason, but the Timbers have the most recent victory. The 2021 Western Conference Final was a wonderful night, and before the match even kicked off it seemed like a sure thing. That’s because the Timbers had demolished RSL in their two previous meetings. Last year, the Timbers went 0-1-1 in both meetings with the Monarchs. I already mentioned the Decision Day disaster, and the earlier match was a pointless and ugly 0-0 draw. I already consider RSL a personal rival, but I think they are definitely a secondary rival for the Timbers. 

RSL currently have a 3-2-6 record in the league, but the biggest stat that stands out is goal difference. They have the same number of 4-0 losses as 0-0 draws. Both of those losses occurred in the first month of the year, and both of the draws happened in the past month. They are another team that is underperforming their xG, only scoring 10 goals in MLS play. There are only two attacking stats that they are top-3 in the league in: shots on target per match and accurate long balls per match. They also barely have the 2nd-highest xG conceded per match, just below 1st-place Charlotte by 0.1 xG. The numbers show that this is a bad team, yet they are outperforming those numbers once again in the results column. Andres Gomez is their most impactful new player, and his skill was on full display in the Open Cup match. Once again, I’m not taking a ton away from that game, but Gomez is definitely the real deal. On Saturday, they got thumped 3-0 by LAFC in their own building. Their previous league matches were the aforementioned 0-0 draws. Plus, their upcoming week involves two trips to archrival Colorado. Rivalry games are always important, but it’s an away game. They’re going to want to get a good result at home. 

This looks like a first-choice XI, and that’s largely because it is one. With no travel for midweek, it is more realistic for RSL to start their usual starters. Notable names who didn’t feature in the Open Cup match are Zac McMath, Brayan Vera, and Jefferson Savarino. Pablo Mastroeni has been a big fan of the 4-4-2 in 2023, so there will be a striker tandem up top. Damir Kreilach is more of a 10, but he can also play second striker. Danny Musovski could pair him up top, or it could be Rubio Rubin. That’s a toss-up in my opinion. I’m most interested in seeing the substitutes. With such a big game on the horizon, Mastroeni is definitely going to try to manage minutes for his best players. Of course, any possible substitute plans could be changed by the state of the game. I don’t expect Gomez, Oviedo, and Pablo Ruiz to play the full 90. Maikel Chang is the most obvious substitute on RSL’s bench. He was the Man of the Match in the Open Cup game. Oviedo’s 33, and he is one of the most crucial players in the squad. Andrew Brody will probably switch over to the left and Emeka Eneli will get some time on the right. Ruiz will probably get spelled by veteran Scott Caldwell. All in all, expect RSL to be hungry to win on Wednesday.

Vibes are tremendous in Portland. A potential season-defining performance was delivered by the Timbers on Saturday, and the squad is eager to capitalize on the momentum from it. The Timbers are now comfortably in 6th with a 4-3-5 record. They are also unbeaten in their last 3 MLS matches, with a +3 goal differential. However, as I discussed in my recap of the Vancouver match, only Saturday saw the Timbers start a true first-choice XI. So why change it? 

I have taken some creative liberties with this starting XI. Juan David Mosquera is a very long name to type into the lineup builder, and car fans should really appreciate his initials more. El Diego needs no explanation. Contrary to what the lineup says, there are not several suitcases stuffed with money starting at the 10. However, the man who is starting there is coming off a Player of the Week (still not saying Matchday, it’s stupid) and is the true heartbeat of the attack. Obviously, subs will definitely be a concern. The most important position Gio needs to sub on Wednesday is center midfield. With depth so thin in that area of the pitch, Noel Caliskan is a lock to make his MLS debut. Yimmi will probably be on another minutes restriction, and Dairon Asprilla is the obvious substitute for him. There is another player on the Timbers’ roster who is yet to make his 2023 MLS debut, and that is Sebastian Blanco. He will not be traveling to Salt Lake City. A possible return on Saturday against Minnesota hasn’t been ruled out, but that’s the essence of 2023 Sebastian Blanco. He will continue to be week-to-week for the rest of the season. Some have pointed out whether it would be worthwhile for the club to shut him down for the season. There is a season-ending injury cap relief clause in MLS, where a chosen player with a season-ending injury would have his salary not count against the salary cap. Eryk Williamson looks like the most likely player for that designation, but with Blanco’s salary so large the idea has floated around to shut him down for the season and use the cap relief clause for his salary. I disagree with that assessment. Even with his health failing, we still owe him the chance to play if he wants too. Now firmly in the twilight of his career, Sebastian Blanco deserves the chance to be able to keep playing for the Portland Timbers. Without Seba, there is no true substitute for Evander. Yimmi isn’t at full health, and both him and Santi aren’t true 10s. A 2-striker approach seems like the most likely solution.  Eric Miller is another player who I definitely think will see the field. He has already taken Pablo Bonilla’s place on the depth chart. Bonilla, unfortunately, got injured in T2’s Sunday victory over Whitecaps 2. He will not be with the team in Utah. Savarese has mentioned on multiple occasions the “next man up” mentality the team is working to achieve. That will be tested in Salt Lake. 

The Timbers fully took the game to Vancouver on Saturday, and Salt Lake is a tough place to repeat that effort. Savarese mentioned the altitude in Tuesday’s press conference, and also commented on how many players will be playing in altitude for the first time. Evander and Franck Boli come to mind immediately, and so does Noel Caliskan. No, Salt Lake is not Colorado, but 4,227 feet above sea level is still a lot higher than the average American city. Players get more exhausted in a shorter period of time at altitude. That’s another reason why substitutes will be so important. In terms of tactics, the Timbers need to be ruthless on the counter. Salt Lake is not good defensively, and any opportunity to run at a backpedaling defense needs to be taken immediately. Speaking ill of the Golden Boy is highly frowned upon right now, but the one thing I haven’t fully seen from Evander is his ability to spring counters quickly. Of course, that will come with more chemistry, but that’s why Santiago Moreno needs to be the counter captain in Salt Lake. Santi is the best attacking player in the middle third of the pitch on Portland’s roster. Boli is an eager runner. Evander’s presence on the pitch is so useful when the Timbers are in possession, but the pressure will be on Moreno on the counter. I don’t have any worries about this team in possession, so I don’t need to touch on that. What I’m most concerned with is what happens when they lose possession in their own half. The set-piece woes have gone away (until they allow another goal on a corner kick) but they have been incredibly shaky in transition. Savarese has noted this on several occasions, and RSL will be eager to exploit that. This is another game to watch the fullback balance. Bravo and Mosquera still need to run forward and stay back in sync. It seems like Bravo will be the fullback staying back when Juan gets forward, but that weakness was written in bright red shining letters against Austin. Both are very good getting forward and making things happen in the attack, but one has to stay back. Eric Miller’s inevitable entrance into this game will help the backline immensely in that regard. Other than those points, there really aren’t any other tactical bits from this match. Just know that if the Timbers win they will have definitely earned it. 

Max Bretos and Brian Dunseth will be on the call tomorrow, so be ready for ridiculous over-pronounciations. I don’t have an issue with the way Bretos calls a game, but the way he says some words just makes my brain bleed. Also, the phrase “two a cero” should be fired into the sun on a Stomp Rocket. Midweek matches tend to be wacky, and I’m sure there will be plenty of shenanigans in America First Field (eww). But the Timbers are now entertainers, and fans are expecting them to continue to amaze and excite. The biggest question is sustainability, and tomorrow will definitely be a test of that. 

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