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Real Salt Lake-Portland Timbers Preview (9/21)

Time to finish off a busy week on a high.

“We’ve achieved nothing even though we beat the Galaxy Wednesday night,” Phil Neville said to a group of reporters on Friday. Just like their loss in Colorado, the Timbers have to put Wednesday’s massive victory behind them as they head to Salt Lake City on short rest.

The RSL Report

Back on July 13th, the Timbers beat RSL 3-0 at Providence Park. Prior to that game, the Monarchs had dominated the Western Conference and looked like a lock for a top-4 spot. But that loss in Portland triggered a slight tailspin. They failed to win either of their final two games before Leagues Cup (including a 3-2 loss in Colorado that gave the Rapids their first Rocky Mountain Cup since 2020 and only their 3rd Cup since 2015). A difficult Leagues Cup draw awaited them, but they got grouped after losing in Houston. In the middle of all of this, they had a very active summer transfer window. Three new wingers (Benji Michel, Lachlan Brook, and Dominik Marczuk) arrived to bolster their attack. So did new DP #10 Diogo Goncalves. However, they received a record transfer fee ($10M) for Carlos Andres Gomez. The strategy for the rest of the season was simple: keep the plane in the sky even if it might not reach cruising altitude. Since the MLS season resumed, the plane has had trouble getting off the ground. A shocking 2-0 loss at home to the San Jose Earthquakes was a serious wake-up call, but they rebounded the next weekend to beat New England at Rio Tinto Stadium (no, it doesn’t have another name). After the international break, they lost 4-1 in Houston on Saturday but beat Dallas 3-2 at home on Wednesday. It has been a roller coaster for the Monarchs, and this sudden reversal of form mirrors their star player.

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RSL (14-8-7, 50 points, 2W/5S) climbed the table in the season’s early months due to a talismanic campaign from star striker Chicho Arango. However, since his fit in Portland, Arango has been limited for several reasons. First was the suspension he received for violating the league’s Anti-Harassment Policy, which cost him 4 games (including the first game of Leagues Cup and the All-Star Game for some reason). When he returned against San Jose, he got hurt and had to be substituted before halftime. He missed the win against New England before returning for the loss in Houston. During that Houston game, Arango picked up a yellow card and missed the Dallas game due to suspension. Since his temper tantrum against Portland, he hasn’t scored in 3 games and RSL is 0-0-3. Anderson Julio in particular has been picking up Arango’s slack. Goncalves still needs some time to adjust, and there’s now an increased urgency to turn this slide around. 2 wins in their last 7 MLS matches is unacceptable, but tomorrow’s game is the most difficult one left on their schedule.

Pablo Ruiz and Kevin Bonilla are both out due to injury. Javain Brown and Nelson Palacio are questionable.

RSL has to go full strength for this game despite the short rest. Ojeda and Eneli just played the full 90 against Dallas, but you can’t break up their excellent double pivot. Goncalves and Luna both came on as subs during the midweek game so both should be able to start. No one has laid their claim to Gomez’s right wing spot. Julio has been in fine form and can play out wide so I expect him to start. Arango wasn’t the only player who missed the Dallas game due to suspension. Katranis has been one of RSL’s best defenders this year and is rather underrated league-wide. Both Katranis and Arango will be back in the team on full rest. Pablo Mastroeni has been rotating his goalkeepers. Gavin Beavers usually starts home games while Zac MacMath is the road starter. It’s a home game, so I think Beavers will get the nod. RSL hasn’t had a ton of time to gel with the incoming players, and they haven’t been in great form. Arguably, they need this win more than Portland.

The Timbers Report

The difference between the Home Timbers and the Road Timbers is stark. Portland’s win on Wednesday increased their home unbeaten streak to 12 games, but they are winless in their last 4 (across all competitions) on the road. Tactically, there isn’t a serious issue with their road performances. You could argue (I definitely will) that they deserved at least a draw in Colorado, Dallas, and Carson. But simple defensive mistakes, poor marking, and poor finishing have caused them to continue to drop points on the road. Those mistakes don’t come down to tactics, they come down to mentality. That word is getting kind of old, but it’s still very relevant.

I had the opportunity to talk with Miguel Araujo on Friday. He loves playing for his national team and was very proud of his contributions during the international break. “We just have to play like we play at home. We always start really well at home but [on the road] we struggle. We just have to change our mentality.” There’s that word popping up again, and it’s still the correct answer. More on this point later.

Jonathan Rodriguez, Evander, and Felipe Mora each scored against the Galaxy, and all three are now tied for the team’s scoring lead with 14 goals. That number is historic. They are the first trio of teammates in MLS history to score 14 goals in a regular season. There are 5 games left, so that number will surely grow. What these guys need is a nickname. I took to Twitter to try and crowdsource one. None of them really clicked (at least for me) but I did like two in particular. Twitter user @J0hnnyButler decided to keep it simple with REM (like the band). This can also be anagrammed to MRE, ERM, EMR or MER. But REM seems like the natural choice for the basic “three initials” pattern. The Tree Amigos was a suggestion from @CramerAlex9. I like this one as well, and I’m sure that it has the Max Bretos Seal of Approval. Either of these ones work, but I’m a little more partial to the Tree Amigos. They have been far too productive to have gone this long without a nickname.

Zero players are listed on the injury report. However, Dario Zuparic is suspended due to yellow card accumulation. Evander and Diego Chara are on yellow card warnings.

Claudio Bravo is off the injury report and will be available for selection tomorrow. However, based on my personal observations of Friday’s open training session, I don’t think he’s healthy enough to start. I expect Bravo to make an impact off the bench. Zuparic won’t start for the first time since May 4th in Charlotte. Since I’m projecting Kamal Miller to start at left back, one of Zac McGraw or Finn Surman will start alongside Araujo at center back. Per Neville, McGraw has been “extremely unlucky not to get any minutes.” Both players are pushing for a start. Neville said that the coaching staff will evaluate tomorrow which player will get the opportunity. I think he’ll go with McGraw, but it could also be Surman. It’s kind of a tossup at this point. Diego Chara played the full 90 against the Galaxy, so I think he will get a rest and make an impact off the bench. Ayala is undroppable. Cristhian Paredes or Eryk Williamson will get an opportunity to start tomorrow. My job is to predict, so I think Paredes will be in from the opening whistle with Williamson available off the bench. Williamson and Ayala haven’t started together this season. However, Williamson was fantastic when these two teams met earlier this season. Personally, I would love to see a Williamson-Ayala pivot, but I think Paredes gets the nod. Moreno played the full 90 against the Galaxy. I don’t think he plays the full 90 at Rio Tinto. None of the Tree Amigos can be dropped.

Tactical Preview

The First Goal

Portland’s success on the road is tied to scoring first. When they concede the first goal, Portland is 1-1-7. The only positive results in that group of games is a win at Yankee Stadium and the comeback draw in Kansas City. However, when they score the first goal, they are 2-1-2. The draw is Columbus, and the other two wins are their only other road wins of the season. The losses are Minnesota and Dallas. In 9 of their 15 road games (the 15th road game is the 0-0 draw in St. Louis) the Timbers have conceded first. They simply cannot do that against RSL, who are 10-1-3 at home with a goal differential of +17. Mentality, mentality, mentality. Go get the first goal and immediately start pushing for the second. This team can do it! They just have to bring their finishing boots too.

Final Thoughts

Announcer Analytics

Max Bretos and Brian Dunseth will be on the call in English. The Spanish announcers are Francisco X. Rivera and Martin Zuñiga. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30 PM PST on Apple TV.

Referee Report

Tori Penso will be the center referee for tomorrow’s match. She has only been the center referee for 5 MLS matches in 2024.

2024 stats: 5 games, 24 fouls/game, 0.4 penalties/game, 4.6 yellows/game, 0 reds/game

Series History

I consider RSL to be Portland’s 3rd-biggest rival behind Seattle and Vancouver. Portland has the historical edge with a 15-10-12 record. However, RSL has the advantage at home with a 9-3-6 record at Rio Tinto.

Table Time

The Timbers have the ability to climb up to 6th if they win and other results go their way. But I think the table should be ignored for this game because getting a win on the road is more important than where they end the night in the standings. Morale is high following the victory against the Galaxy, and now it’s time to capitalize on it. The climb continues.

In other news, I will be in Salt Lake City tomorrow to cover this game. Next to Seattle, this is the number one venue where I desire a Timbers victory. I do not like RSL in the slightest. Cheers to three points and putting the L in RSL.