Replacing David Ayala

It’s something that I never wanted to write. Two weeks ago, David Ayala was sold to Inter Miami for $2M. Because my thoughts on the transfer were rather fresh, I think they need some revision based on some new developments.

Per Tom Bogert of The Athletic, Ayala wasn’t going to sign another contract with the Portland Timbers. Hell, he wasn’t even going to sign another contract with any MLS team. That’s very important. The Timbers had a difficult decision to make. Is it more important to keep him for 2026 knowing that he’ll leave for free at the end of the year OR is it better to take the money and replace him with a new player?

Your opinion on this transfer is the same as your response to that question. Personally, I’m OK with taking the money, but I would also be very OK with him remaining on the team. As you all are about to find out, it’s going to be difficult to replace what he brings to the Timbers. “Taking everything else into consideration, we felt we should stay aggressive with it, make the deal, and retool from there.”

That quote is from general manager Ned Grabavoy, who has had to make difficult decision after difficult decision since replacing Gavin Wilkinson in the fall of 2022. Being a general manager requires making difficult decisions, and only time will tell if this one is correct. But Ayala’s departure also compounds Portland’s midfield issues. Cristhian Paredes joined Paraguayan side Cerro Porteno in free agency, so the Timbers officially have two natural defensive midfielders on the roster (Joao Ortiz and Diego Chara). On Thursday, Grabavoy addressed Portland’s plans for the midfield: “I believe that [the midfield reinforcements] will come in the form of another U22 player that’s both capable of helping the team now but also a future building block. And then I think we do have to go out and get a proven-type midfield player which we’ve looked at both internally in MLS and abroad as well.”

That’s the criteria for both potential midfield signings. However, each of them could be the Ayala replacement. In order to find a replacement for Portland’s linchpin, I’m going to do part of the work necessary.

This is where the disclaimer comes into play. I have not had any contact with these players, so I have no idea if they’re interested in coming to Portland or how much it would cost (transfer fee & salary) to bring them to the club. This upcoming article will be full of players who are in Ayala’s hemisphere. Grabavoy’s generalized criteria is listed above, so here are the standards that I’m using to build what I’m calling the “Stat-Driven Shortlist:”

Minimum 25 90s (full games) played

Minimum 6.1 True Progressive Passes per 90

Minimum 6.7 Passes into Final Third per 90

Minimum 75% Long Pass Accuracy (subcriteria: minimum 9 long passes per 90)

Minimum 1.15 Switches per 90

Minimum 3 Tackles per 90

Minimum 4.5 Tackles+Interceptions per 90

In order to generate these parameters, I looked at Ayala’s most recent season in Portland. His numbers in all of these categories are higher than my baselines. This allows a bit of wiggle room so a larger database of players can be built. At the start of each section, I’m going to put Ayala’s actual number to see how well the players compare with him. Only these seasons will be covered in the report for recency reasons: 2023/24, 2024/25, and 2025/26. I think I’ve covered all my bases (probably not) so let’s get started.

*One more disclaimer: all stats are per 90. This saves me the trouble of having to repeat myself, which I don’t like to do and I’m sure y’all will appreciate as well. Otherwise, this would get even more repetitive than it already is.*

True Progressive Passes: 6.24, N/A

I probably should’ve started with a different stat because now I have to explain why there’s a large “N/A” next to Ayala’s number. With each new stat, I’m going to put Ayala’s percentile ranking alongside his number. This first stat, True Progressive Passes (TPP), isn’t tracked by Stathead (which is where I’m getting all of these numbers from and is what I’m using to build the shortlist). 

Ayala’s ability to progress the ball with his passing is the most important thing that the Timbers will be missing while he is in Miami. The Timbers relied on the Argentine to move the ball from the back to the front. Diego Chara registered 5.35 TPP, but he will not be counted on to start every game and only played 13.2 90s last season. On the other hand, Joao Ortiz’s number in the same stat is 3.25 in 12.2 90s. The Timbers need to find another midfielder who can truly progress the ball. Ayala led the team in this stat last year, and Chara was in second place. Cristhian Paredes was a close third. David Da Costa was close to Ayala’s actual progressive passes number, but it was “inflated” by the highest average of passes into the penalty area on the team.

TPP takes a player’s average progressive passing number and subtracts their average number of passes into the penalty area. This is important. Any pass into the penalty area is considered a progressive pass. But the Timbers need to be focused on pure ball progression rather than final third link-ups in order to find an Ayala replacement. Ayala’s base progressive passes stat (6.62) ranks in the 83rd percentile of MLS players. But only 0.38 (14th percentile) of those 6.62 were defined as passes into the penalty area. 

Ayala’s game revolved around pinging passes up the pitch, not getting the ball into the box. So let’s take a look at some players who fit this criteria.

Not all of these players meet the criteria of 6.1 TPP. In fact, most of them fall well short of the mark. However, a couple of these players deserve some more words.

Former Atlanta United midfielder Bartosz Slisz shows up here, even though his TPP is 5.8. That’s due to the parameters I had to use in order to generate this list. However, that’s not far off from 6.1. Either way, Atlanta just transferred him to Danish side Brondby for an undisclosed  fee on January 7th. That’s the same day that Ayala’s move was first reported. Sigh.

I also sighed when I saw Braian Ojeda and Daniel Edelman on the list. Although each of their entries are from 2024, they were both transferred within MLS during this offseason. Ojeda (5.4 TPP) joined Orlando in a GAM trade from RSL ($1.3M guaranteed and $475K in conditional) on January 2nd. Edelman departed Harrison, New Jersey for St. Louis on January 13th for $700K guaranteed GAM and $150K conditional GAM. The new Ravioli is only 20 years old. Both players were gettable for the Timbers. 

Alhassan Yusuf (5.6 TPP) is also here. I think I’ll come back to him later.

In terms of the international options, none of these players would qualify for a U22 slot. Some of them (like Martin Zubimendi) are far too good for the Timbers. However, I like the look of Adrian Guillermo Sanchez (6.1 TPP). It is with sincere regret that I inform you that he has just moved to Belgrano. Caio Alexandre (7 TPP) looks pretty interesting. Jose Florentin (7 TPP) is 29 (30 in July), so he might be too similar in age to Joao Ortiz. 

The eagle-eyed readers will have probably noticed something already. “How come there are no players from the current 2025/26 season here?” Because one of my criteria was 25 full 90s, it is almost impossible for one of those players to qualify for that list. The 2025/26 season is somewhere around 50-60% complete in most countries. So I’ll have to lower the number of minutes to qualify for those players. Let’s do 12 90s. 

Here are some more names for the shortlist. Sydie Peck (5.3 TPP) is the only U22 option, so I highlighted him. I doubt that he is gettable. Diego Campillo (5.8 TPP) and Jason Knight (5.7 TPP) are a few years away from their peak at ages 23 and 24, respectively. Melle Meulensteen (6 TPP) fits the profile of the “proven-type” midfielder that Grabavoy mentioned. He did join Go Ahead Eagles last summer, but I like his name. And for those who wanted a big name, may I offer Harry Winks (6.2 TPP)? It’s been a disappointing year for Leicester, and he could be gettable!

SHORTLISTED: Alhassan Yusuf, Caio Alexandre, Diego Campillo, Melle Meulensteen, Harry Winks

At the end of each section, I’ll add a few players to the shortlist. The goal is to find a player that overlaps in as many categories as possible. That player will be deemed the Ayala Replacement (AR). If a player appears multiple times across this exercise, they will automatically be shortlisted as well. TPP has uncovered five players that are worth keeping tabs on. What fruit will the next stat bear?

Passes into Final 3rd: 6.89, 86th Percentile

This stat is pretty self-explanatory. How many passes into the final third did a player complete per 90? No need to trouble myself with the extra math this time. Ayala dominated this stat for the Timbers last year. Chara (5.41) and Paredes (5.22) are the only others to crack 5, but they played 13.3 and 11.3 90s, respectively. Jimer Fory (4.59) and David Da Costa (4.05) were the closest to Ayala when the bar is raised to twenty 90s. Ball progression never stopped being an issue.

There are a lot of names on this dataset, so we’ll go page by page. Hello again to Caio Alexandre! Many of these players are in the “not-gettable” bracket. I don’t think the likes of Pedri will be gracing Providence Park anytime soon. I highlighted Cristian Roldan because he went supernova last year. Not a thing y’all wanted to hear, I know. Kevin Facundo Gutierrez just moved to Necaxa. Congratulations to him.

I didn’t highlight Joe Rothwell in the TPP section, but he appears here again. Into the shortlist he goes. I’ll include Florentin as well. I’m also highlighting Alex Mowatt for selfish reasons. Ayala is tied with Slisz, Marten de Roon, Jack McGlynn, and Federico Valverde! Good company to be in.

Jose Caicedo gets highlighted for the same reasons as Rothwell.

Now we move to the dataset from the current season.

Matt Grimes appeared TWICE in the last dataset, but he’s chasing promotion with Coventry. Hello again to Harry Winks! Jordan Holsgrove is an interesting player. He started in the Reading academy but has only played senior-level soccer in Iberia. 

The only player here who would (potentially) consider Portland is Marcel Ruiz.

SHORTLISTED: Jose Caicedo, Matt Grimes, Jordan Holsgrove

Long Pass Completion Percentage: 76.7%, 85th Percentile

There had to be some criteria that measured passing distance. I could’ve chosen his medium passing (92.8%, 92nd percentile) but Ayala’s long passing is what really stands out on the tape. A long pass is defined by Stathead as a pass that travels more than 30 yards. It should come as no surprise that Ayala dominated this category last season. James Pantemis and Maxime Crepeau are at the top of the attempted long passes leaderboard (17.1 and 15.9) but they are goalkeepers. Among field players, Claudio Bravo and Matias Rojas (12.2 and 12.1) were the only field players to average more long passes per 90 than Ayala. However, their completion rates weren’t outstanding (55.6% and 57.4%) and both players registered less than 360 MLS minutes. 

Ayala’s excellent completion percentage is even more noteworthy when his average attempts enter the picture. Three Timbers had higher completion percentages than Ayala on long passes. The first is Felipe Carballo. The Uruguayan completed every single long pass he attempted for the Timbers. This entire article would have a different tone if Carballo didn’t suffer a torn ACL in August. Felipe Mora and Chara are the other two. However, none of those players attempted more than 6 long passes per 90 (2.86, 2.16, and 5.64). Ayala’s number is a whopping 10.1. For these search parameters, I’m looking for midfielders with 75% pass accuracy and at least 9 long passes attempted per 90. 

I don’t think any of these players are shortlist-worthy. Are these criteria too harsh? What happens if I drop the completion percentage to 70%?

Five new data points are created. I’m going to add Artur to the shortlist. This isn’t the first time Jacopo Petriccione has popped up, but I don’t think he fits the age profile that the Timbers are targeting. In addition, he’s never played outside of Italy. Let’s pivot to the dataset from the current European season.

It’s safe to call Ayala a long-pass specialist. Of these six names, Ivan Tona is the most intriguing. He fits the age profile and has played 3 years at Tijuana.

SHORTLISTED: Artur, Ivan Tona

Switches: 1.23, 97th Percentile

This is a sub-category of long pass, and it’s one that Ayala dominated. A switch is a pass that travels 40+ yards across the pitch. When you think of Ayala’s passing, you’re probably remembering these passes in particular. Only Rojas (1.28) could surpass Ayala’s average on the Timbers. In terms of total stats, he’s only beaten by Adilson Malanda (49) across the entirety of MLS. This is a specialized trait, but in order to find an Ayala replacement his signature pass is a key measuring point. 

Oussama Idrissi showed up on the Long Pass dataset, so I’ll add him to the shortlist. Nelson Deossa moved to Real Betis in the summer. Mathias Delorge is a U22 candidate.

Most of these players are not defensive midfielders. There’s Ivan Tona again.

SHORTLISTED: Oussama Idrissi

Tackles: 3.02, 90th Percentile

Passing is only half of the David Ayala profile. As a defensive midfielder, defending might be more important than what he can provide with the ball at his feet. There were two options for a tackle-related stat. I had to include one of them to illustrate how good he is in the challenge. However, I decided not to go for “Tackles Won.” The difference is whether or not the tackling team/player wins the ball. Because the Timbers are still woefully disorganized off the ball, I didn’t think it would be fair to categorize Ayala with a category that speaks more about the team than himself as a player. 

Ayala made 88 tackles in 2025, a number that was only surpassed by Philadelphia’s Kai Wagner in MLS. That number is the most among all midfielders in MLS, trailed by Sergio Busquets (81), Jovan Lukic (81), and Cristian Roldan (80).

TANGENT: God, This Sucks

You have probably noticed Busquets’ name popping up multiple times in these database searches. That isn’t coincidental in the slightest.

There is no player within MLS better equipped to replace the Spanish icon than David Ayala. In terms of a passing and defensive standpoint, the Argentine is almost in a tier of his own. Miami are currently in the process of finalizing a deal for Mexican forward German Berterame. You might remember him as the Timbers’ primary target during the final weeks of the 2024 winter transfer window. Portland made a bid of $15M (Berterame’s release clause) and the two sides agreed on personal terms. However, Berterame elected to remain in Monterrey. There’s a pretty big reason for that.

Before Berterame was “Mexican forward German Berterame” he was “Argentine forward German Berterame.” The Argentinean National Team is one of the hardest international squads to break into. While plying his trade in Mexico, Berterame was miles off the radar of the federation. However, becoming a Mexican citizen made him eligible to represent Mexico at the international level. When the Timbers triggered Berterame’s release clause, he was still a few months away from becoming a Mexican citizen. That was (per my knowledge) the primary reason that Berterame rejected the Timbers. It’s even funnier because Cincinnati did the same thing in the summer of 2024 but Berterame flat-out rejected the Garys for reasons unknown. 

Now a full Mexican citizen, Berterame is set to join Miami. He’ll be the nominal replacement to Luis Suarez, playing alongside Busquets replacement David Ayala and the unquestioned greatest player of all time (Lionel Messi, as if that wasn’t obvious). Two years ago, both players (not Messi, duh) could’ve been teammates in Portland. God, this sucks. 

Back To Tackles

Bravo (3.78) and Chara (3.23) are the only players to surpass Ayala on a per-90 basis. In terms of raw numbers, Antony (48) is the closest Timber to Ayala. This stat measures aggression and combativeness more than ball-winning. Let’s take a look at the data.

Franco Ibarra is a name that should be familiar to those of you who closely follow the league. He joined Atlanta in 2021 and couldn’t win the starting job. A loan to Toronto in 2023 didn’t pan out, so he joined Rosario Central on loan in 2024. His contract expired at the end of that loan, and Rosario opted to sign him permanently as a free agent. Maybe he’s ready for a return to MLS. Enric Llansana piqued my interest, but he joined Anderlecht last summer. I think he’s a tier above what the Timbers can probably manage. Marcel Ruiz shows up again. Per the rules, he’s added to the shortlist. 

Cristian Casseres Jr. is another former MLS player, but not in the Ibarra mold. He got his European move in 2023 after 6 seasons with the New York Red Bulls. Maybe a large contract could convince him to return to the States. Dodi could be another interesting option in the “proven midfielder” mold.

Fredrik Hammer and Pietro Fusi are the only “gettable” names in the dataset from the current season.

SHORTLISTED: Franco Ibarra, Marcel Ruiz, Cristian Casseres Jr., Dodi, Fredrik Hammer, Pietro Fusi

Tkl+Int: 4.66, 93rd Percentile

I debated including interceptions separately due to Ayala’s outstanding ranking in that category (2nd-most interceptions among MLS midfielders in 2025). However, I think doing a combined tackles & interceptions examination saves words and accomplishes the same goal. 

Ayala led MLS in this category last season (136). The next-closest midfielder was Tverskov (133) followed by Lukic (124), Roldan (119), and Yusuf (118). Two Timbers tied for second place on the team: Jimer Fory and Finn Surman (71). On a per-90 basis, Bravo (5.68) and Chara (4.74) finished with more. 

Several familiar names are on this list. Lorenzo Amatucci is currently on loan at Las Palmas and would fit the U22 tag. Joel Fujita has aged out of the tag, and joined St. Pauli in the summer.

Fredrik Hammer shows up again. None of these other players are “gettable.”

SHORTLISTED: N/A

I thought that would be more illuminating. I guess it wasn’t.

The Stat-Driven Shortlist

Time to build the shortlist.

Alhassan Yusuf

Caio Alexandre

Diego Campillo

Melle Meulensteen

Harry Winks

Jose Caicedo

Matt Grimes

Jordan Holsgrove

Artur

Ivan Tona

Oussama Idrissi

Franco Ibarra

Marcel Ruiz

Cristian Casseres Jr.

Dodi

Fredrik Hammer

Pietro Fusi

That’s a lot of names. Which one is the David Ayala replacement?

The David Ayala Replacement

None of them are.

I’m afraid that I completely hoodwinked all of you. That includes myself. I wanted to see if there was a midfielder that matched every category. Marcel Ruiz came the closest. He’s the closest player to an Ayala clone that showed up in the dataset. Artur was also very close given his excellent passing numbers but lackluster defending. Other players like Jordan Holsgrove and Cristian Casseres Jr. looked promising. Unfortunately, they only provide the answers to half of the puzzle. Finding a player that can distribute and defend with Ayala’s proficiency is almost impossible. But the keyword is “almost.”

The New England Revolution are going through another rebuild. New coach Marko Mitrovic just took the head coaching job from the departed Caleb Porter. The Timbers have an opportunity to get the closest midfielder to Ayala on this list: Alhassan Yusuf.

Yusuf was just behind Ayala in several of these stats, but didn’t show up in the searches because I set the parameters too high. He’s one of the most underrated midfielders in the league. I highlighted him in the TPP section because that’s the most important passing stat. His defensive proficiency kept showing up again and again in the data. For the right (cash) price, he could be gettable for a Timbers team that is (somehow) closer to competing than New England. It would have to be a cashfer. But he comes the closest to Ayala. 

Final Whistle

However, the 25-year-old Nigerian isn’t Ayala. Because there is only one David Ayala, and his name is David Ayala. The Timbers do not have their own Sergio Busquets anymore. Throughout all of this research, it became abundantly clear that the Timbers lost one of the best players in the league. 

So what does this mean in terms of a replacement? Will the Timbers have to find a like-for-like or will they try to replace him in the aggregate? Can Joao Ortiz take a big step forward in his second season? Was this just a hopeless exercise to try and find a golden goose?

That’s exactly what it was. And in the process, I discovered that Ayala was more important to the Timbers than I thought at the beginning of this project.

The Timbers already knew how important he was. Their scouting network covers far more places than Stathead can reach. They will have to try to replace him in the aggregate. But with every day that passes, less and less time remains for their replacement to get settled in. They’re racing the clock.

David Ayala came to Portland from Estudiantes in 2022. During his time with the Timbers, he suffered. An injury-plagued 2022 kept him from taking a starting spot in the midfield. In 2023, the flashes of the previous year became genuine sunlight. But an ACL tear eclipsed the rest of the year and a part of 2024. Once he returned fully healthy, he became undroppable. And the Argentine delivered week after week. Through those glorious switches, physics-defying spider tackles, and the occasional goal, Ayala brought joy to Portland. All of his tireless work in the midfield should’ve been rewarded with some silverware. But he departed Portland without a trophy, and arrived at a place where trophies are the expectation. I can’t root against him. Except on May 17th, when his former teammates go to his new home with the intention of spoiling his brief reunion. 

The Timbers have found David Ayala before. The bigger question is “Can they do it again?” Midfield reinforcements are coming. On Thursday, Grabavoy said to expect new additions between the next “2-3 weeks.” Another front office timeline has been issued. They have to follow this schedule. Ayala has already begun preseason training in Miami. The Timbers are still scrambling, as they often do. Difficult decisions have been made, and more difficult decisions follow. The cycle continues. Onwards.